You need to look at average sunlight - lots of days aren’t sunny. If you haven’t read through my page on solar hot water, it might make sense to look at the data. I’ve attached a graph below that shows panel output temps over the course of a (rare) perfectly sunny day. Peak output doesn’t happen for very long, and the average over the best 4 hours is considerably less.
I have three glazed panels that are in the same general size range as what you describe, and another 80 square feet of pool heater. I think I could supply our needs with two of the pool heaters at $140 each. Max temp is only 135 degrees, but lots of surface area means lots of BTUs.
I know that you’re willing to burn wood, but that might not seem so attractive come August.
24,000 BTU/day seems a bit low, but reasonable if you’re really careful about hot water use. With a family of five using low-flow shower heads and front-loading washing machine, we’re somewhere around 65,000 BTU/day.
