peak oil ?

The cited article is a "Send us tax money so we can study this problem" press release/scare tactic.

In the 1970s, con artists scared the congress into giving tax money to create alternative energy sources because "Oil and gas reserves are going to be exhausted in _______ years." What astonishes me is every generation falls for the same con. Only this round is costing billions rather than millions.

Historically, when a natural resource or energy practice was overtaken by new finds or technology, the transfer was mediated by the market. Just since my grandparents day, we have heated homes with wood, then coal, then oil, then propane/natural gas, electricity, etc. All transitions driven by the market. All without massive intervention by the government.

The idea we need to borrow large amounts of money from our grandchildren to transition to new sources of energy before the market is ready is folly. It is disgusting. It is a reflection of societal lack of morals, in that we are willing to take money from future generations to fund an easy life for ourselves.

I don't think pellets will be first choice. More like Natural Gas as its much easier for them to us than wood pellets.

Take a look at a graph of how oil production varies with increased prices. Up until the last couple of years, increased prices would result in more production immediately and then more new fields coming online a few years after that. That hasn't happened recently - indeed, prices have kept going up but production is static. That makes a very good case for us actually being at peak oil already - indeed it's interesting to ponder how much of the current global recession/slowdown is purely financial and how much due to oil prices...

If you believe that we live in a finite world.
Then it's not a matter of if you "believe in Peak Oil" or not.
It's more a matter if we have arrived there yet.
And when we do things are going to get very interesting.
It's obvious we've already gotten to the "easy" oil.
Do you really think we would be mining "tar sands" in Canada or drilling a mile deep in the gulf if there was easier oil to get at?
I'll get off my soapbox now.
denny

fighting_demons said:

If you believe that we live in a finite world.
Then it's not a matter of if you "believe in Peak Oil" or not.
It's more a matter if we have arrived there yet.
And when we do things are going to get very interesting.
It's obvious we've already gotten to the "easy" oil.
Do you really think we would be mining "tar sands" in Canada or drilling a mile deep in the gulf if there was easier oil to get at?
I'll get off my soapbox now.
denny

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I agree, the bottom line is, that there's no more cheap oil.

noelp68 said:

Is this something thats not getting enough attention?http://oildepletion.wordpress.com/ It seems like were a far away from today, but not too far, and if so would pellets become a first choice heat source all over the world? If so, what would that do to pellet prices? I realize were no were close, to see prices rise from this is years away. It makes me wonder if the U.S. should maybe stop exporting our oil and maybe import today so we can have oil and gas when most of the oil rich (middle east) run out, our kids well thank us for it.

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I doubt pellets would be primary heat source, you've got to understand the massive scale of energy we use... Plus ... They're sorta unwieldy. Oil is easy, just fill up the tank.


Actually if we're at peak oil it might make sense to use as much imports as possible so we have a nice fat source when the import sources dry up. Just a thought.

If we're considering putting an export tariff on petroleum it should be crude and not refined products.. The us still imports crude as far as I know, putting an export tariff on refined petroleum would just move the refinery work offshore.

Moving to alternatives is not a question of if, but when.

This is definitely headed for the ashcan, lol. I'm ensnared yet again!

Using pellets is work. At least more work, looks, and dust then what a lot of today's folks are willing to deal with. Add to that the cost and effort of transporting pellets and you have an industry that plays to a "select" population. For many, it will be a last resort. I suspect a lot of growth and innovations are on for the pellet horizon. Now, how to keep Wall Street and inside the beltway out of the picture?

The US has over 100 years of proven oil reserves... Canada has 188 years... I think peak has been pretty much debunked.

Peak oil isn't the same as the oil running out. It's when supply can no longer keep up with demand at prices we would historically recognise as normal, leading to sufficiently high prices that people are economically forced to find alternatives. How many people on here have you seen talking about getting a wood/pellet stove because oil prices are so high?

Peak oil was myth created to try to scare folks into conservation and a radical restructuring of the economy. The world will not run out of oil as much as the world will be unwilling to pay for it when they find alternatives. Its a bear during the transition but if oil is considirably more expensive than other fuels, folks will make the switch to the other less expensive fuel, decreasing demand for oil.

By the way The US has over a couple of lifetimes of shale oil reserves in the west. It has a higher yield than canadian tar sands. It has a similiar significant environmental impact to tar sands and therefore the US has decided not to agressively pursue it while they can go for natural gas at a far lower cost and lower environmental impact.

No one disputes the amount of oil we have left. Its the cost of recovery. Texas sweet crude is the cheapest oil on earth. But its in decline. Off shore, polar, shale etc is very expensive stuff.
This may help
http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

j-takeman said:

I don't think pellets will be first choice. More like Natural Gas as its much easier for them to us than wood pellets.

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Agreed. The US has a large amount of natural gas. And today it is much cheaper than oil. BTU to BTU.

Thinking of it another way, no, pellets are not likely to be the substitute.

Should the doom and gloomers be correct to some level about the oil supplies, whether be declining supply or just more difficult to find supply, the resulting economic climate will be so vastly different that the model of pellet production (by-products of lumber production) will not be feasible.

Think about the housing collapse in '08. Pellet mills lost many of their saw dust sources.

The real question is, what will the economy look like if oil is $200-$300/bbl?

I suspect with the Fed Gov. already racking up $15+ trillion in debt and more being piled on every day, we all might be better off investing in some draft houses, bow saws, and a good sledge hammer and set of wedges.