Any Winter predictions yet?

pen said:

The mild winter last year gave us a ton of ticks this year, and hurt the apple crop. I don't mind if it's cold.

pen

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what we need is a really cold snap (in the single digits for highs) for a month, with NO SNOW to help kill off those damm ticks. Last winter was MISERABLE for ticks.....

The ticks were not just from a weak winter.

• 2 years ago we had a large mast crop, and the mouse population exploded. Tick populations rose in response.
• Last year was a weak mast crop. Mice died, leaving those ticks homeless.

Some states had a poor apple crop because of a hard frost early in the season that killed blossoms etc. Michigan had only like 15% of its normal crop because of that. Drought states had... drought.

NH seems to be having a good apple year

pen said:

The mild winter last year gave us a ton of ticks this year, and hurt the apple crop. I don't mind if it's cold.

pen

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Bleepin' gray squirrels hurt my apple crop. When the leaves go this year, the tree rats better look out.

Ok, none of this meens a hoot until Zap the Weather man puts his stamp on it!

red oak said:

Prediction 1 - I will have a warm house without paying for gas/oil.

Prediction 2 - Days will continue to get shorter until late December, then will get longer.

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The old saying: As the days grow longer, the cold grows stronger.

Adios Pantalones said:

The ticks were not just from a weak winter.

• 2 years ago we had a large mast crop, and the mouse population exploded. Tick populations rose in response.
• Last year was a weak mast crop. Mice died, leaving those ticks homeless.

Some states had a poor apple crop because of a hard frost early in the season that killed blossoms etc. Michigan had only like 15% of its normal crop because of that. Drought states had... drought.

NH seems to be having a good apple year

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Actually, that statement about Michigan's apple crop is only partially right. There indeed was a hard freeze (not frost) which killed the apple crop. However, it was really because the blossoms opened up about 3 weeks ahead of schedule. If they would have waited until May, we would have been okay. Also, the last report I've got is that Michigan lost 95% of the crop which I think is more correct.

damn! Ya, they hd a whole thing about MI's apple crop on NPR today. It was in the 80s the week before the freeze

My own feeling about weather is . . . it is what it is . . . and when the season is over is when I can tell ya for sure if it was cold, snowy, mild, icy, etc.

Gut feeling . . . last year here was wicked mild . . . not much snow, not exceptionally cold. I doubt we'll get a back to back repeat of last year . . . which makes me happy.

i love the weather threads! hey without cold winters there'd be no hearth.com!

my humble perspective:
we can't predict the severity of the upcoming season by the number of acorns, the stripes on a caterpillar or the chipmunk population. those numbers are a result of what has already happened the previous season or seasons, not what's GOING to happen. what we CAN look for are cyclical patterns. let's say, right after an el nino (a cyclical event) we typically have a dry summer at such-and-such a place followed by a cold winter blah blah blah. the challenge here is that we are constantly updating our models based on new data - which is good - in a couple of hundred years we'll be much better at long term predictions. i never see any consistent accurate predictions in the farmer's almanac. seems about as random as TV weathermen. anyone notice anything different?

my prediction:
for europe - with the greenland ice sheet melting at a staggering rate. the north atlantic will continue to be infused with fresh water, disrupting the 'normal' (historic) gulf stream flow, causing europe to get colder and colder each year. remember last year? snow in london? people freezing to death in france? i think its going to continue. you heard it here at HDC!!

for northeast US - not a freekin clue cause i don't know what's happening upstream from me. one thing to note is that the winters of 1993/4/5 were quite cold here due to the explosion of my pinatubo which lowered the earth's temperature by 1 degree. i predict (fear) that we're in for another mild winter here in the northeast. sucks cuz winter is by far my favorite season.

i hope the maps posted here are correct and that i am wrong.

OT

You know, I used to like winter, but now it means a lot more mone money for heating and food, unpredictable days to plan to travel, and pain from falling on the ice.
On the positive, I don't have to cut the grass, I have an excuse not to be painting the deck, I get to watch the birds, and I have a chance to catch up on my reading as I sit by the warm stove.
I really think the time of the year I least like is after the leaves have fallen and until the snow covers the ground.
I don't subscribe to the notion of if you have a mild winter that you make up for it with a very bad one. Winter is whatever you get, where ever you are, rich or poor. The differences are what you do during it while the weather is over your head, vs your headstone.

onetracker said:

we can't predict the severity of the upcoming season by the number of acorns, the stripes on a caterpillar or the chipmunk population.

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Oh, c'mon now... surely the chipmunks know something we don't.

save$ ..........you forgot about all the football, beer, and pizza when its cold outside

Joful said:

Oh, c'mon now... surely the chipmunks know something we don't.

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Well they do know how to aggravate Donald. . . . They seem to put him over the edge every time.

All I know is that after the last mild winter, it put me another year ahead on our supply. Since I was already two years ahead, this just made it much easier to be able to choose what wood is offered up when it comes available. What I don't hope for is another 80 degree stretch like this year and see it wipe out the apple and other crops here in Michigan.

On the one hand, I agree with OT about possible indicators really showing what has happened and not what is about to happen.....but something tells me the chippies have it right this year....check back with me in 6 months