Cheap Energy, Economic Growth & Climate Change

Over the next few years, I think we are going to see the naysayers switch from saying "solar will never work", to "solar will never provide more than 20% of our electricity". Analysts are expecting PV's recent exponential growth to continue at least up to that point...if it keeps doubling every 1.5 years, going from 0.5% (today) to 20% would take about 13 years, or sometime between 2025-2030.

That will be a big business.

Of course, climate change mitigation will require large-scale electrification of transportation and home heating, and growth beyond that 20% solar/wind level. While today's low-storage grid starts to choke above 20% renewable energy, I would be surprised if there weren't a wide array of solutions available 15 years from now, CSP-thermal storage, utility-scale flow batteries, EV to grid, etc.

In 2030, the naysayers will be saying "solar will never provide 50% of all energy". And they will still be wrong.

Go visit a working class area on the other side of the planet and ask yourself if the problem is solved. I visited the other side of the planet in January, and it made me appreciate the US air pollution laws more than ever. Maybe things have changed since January, I'm always hopeful...

In the meantime, the 4.4kW PV array on my roof helps avoid burning more fossil fuels over on this side of the world.

woodgeek said:

Over the next few years, I think we are going to see the naysayers switch from saying "solar will never work", to "solar will never provide more than 20% of our electricity". Analysts are expecting PV's recent exponential growth to continue at least up to that point...if it keeps doubling every 1.5 years, going from 0.5% (today) to 20% would take about 13 years, or sometime between 2025-2030.

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That is just wishful thinking. The growth in manufacturing capacity will stop way before that. Or do you really think that we will really have enough PV companies that they can churn out solar panels for providing 10% of global energy consumption within 1.5 years? We are not talking about adding more transistors to one chip but doubling assembly lines every 1.5 years.

Of course, climate change mitigation will require large-scale electrification of transportation and home heating, and growth beyond that 20% solar/wind level. While today's low-storage grid starts to choke above 20% renewable energy, I would be surprised if there weren't a wide array of solutions available 15 years from now, CSP-thermal storage, utility-scale flow batteries, EV to grid, etc.

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I hope you will be right. Still, I wish we would put also more effort in a contingency plan if we will not get there quite as fast.

Grisu said:

That is just wishful thinking. The growth in manufacturing capacity will stop way before that. Or do you really think that we will really have enough PV companies that they can churn out solar panels for providing 10% of global energy consumption within 1.5 years? We are not talking about adding more transistors to one chip but doubling assembly lines every 1.5 years.

I hope you will be right. Still, I wish we would put also more effort in a contingency plan if we will not get there quite as fast.

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I was specifically talking about the US case, not global needs. Different countries will be on different curves...as you know Germany is already at 10% solar with half the US's annual solar resource. You are saying Germany can do it with expensive panels today, and the US can't do the same thing with far cheaper panels over the next 15 years?? That's the conservative projection, assuming only market forces, and not requiring any massive govt incentives, now that panel prices are low.

As for factories....if you make money building one factory, you make twice as much money building two factories....when the market and resources are available, industrial capacity has no problem growing exponentially.

All this griping and talk and call for PV regulation from the utilities over the last year (as discussed in the green room) is because they have now seen the handwriting on the wall. When PV was expensive, and lower panel prices were just a projection, most utilities were not worried. After prices collapsed to near or below grid parity in many US markets, suddenly they are all realizing they need to plan for a solar future. So in some (mostly red) states, there are now political attempts to block homeowner PV or make it too expensive. In some other states, like MN they are trying to build a viable business plan, like VOSP.

begreen said:

I think it's going to take much more than just solar.

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Indeed. But I think the point of the Krugman column is that from an engineering point of view, it is clear that a robust RE-driven future is shaping up. There IS more than enough solar power in the world to meet projected human needs (especially factoring in efficiency gain/savings), and the price of the equipment is approaching the costs of the fossil resource. The solar equipment is also made out of Si and Al, both major constituents of the earths crust.

Do we need better US and global policy to solve the global warming problem? Yes. But the days when folks say that 'there is no solution other than clean coal, or nukes, because RE can't do it [insert reason]' and still be taken seriously?, well they are drawing to a close.

The RE 'ecotopia' will not be here in 10 years...but in 10 years we will know what it will look like, we will be on a capitalist-driven path towards it, and we will have all the technology to build it in production.

Here's a nice roundup of industry opposition to rooftop solar....

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-solar-kochs-20140420,0,2718030,full.story#axzz2zRPWf8ks

We went right from "it will never work" to "its a menace"....

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/04/right-wing-trains-its-hysterical-eye-renewable-energy

begreen said:

We are in deep trouble when political will is determined by the highest bidder.

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We're there and the Supreme Court seems to add more nails to the coffin with every related decision.

The 'solar report' from market analysts at Citigroup came out a few weeks ago. Some of the money shots are summarized here:

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/04/02/citigroup-solar-modules-could-fall-to-25-centswatt-by-2020/

My fave, is the projection that residential PV systems will be between $1.12-$1.40 per W, all-in, pre-incentive, by 2020.
Utility scale systems spec'ed out at $0.65/W in 2020.

Those starry-eyed bankers.

woodgeek said:

The 'solar report' from market analysts at Citigroup came out a few weeks ago. Some of the money shots are summarized here:

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/04/02/citigroup-solar-modules-could-fall-to-25-centswatt-by-2020/

My fave, is the projection that residential PV systems will be between $1.12-$1.40 per W, all-in, pre-incentive, by 2020.
Utility scale systems spec'ed out at $0.65/W in 2020.

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I like this report. A bit optimistic. And it's over a year old. Any update from this year?

Oops. I guess they are writing a new report every year....

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/citigroup-says-the-age-of-renewables-has-begun

At todays numbers, I'd still be looking at something like a 20 year ROI.

So it's not there for me yet - but I would like it to be.

Indeed. Figure a lot of places in NorthAmerica are around 1200 hours of nominal output per year. At $1.20/W all in, each W of capacity will make 1.2 kWh/year. Replacing $0.10/kWh grid power, simple payback would be 10 years. If your power was $0.18 cents (e.g. CT or NYC), or you had a SW US resource, then you are talking about a 6 year simple payback. With fair VOSP pricing above grid retail rates, you could get even shorter.

In my case, I have a bit of shading (40%?) and room for a 4-5 kW array, but for a hypothetical $6k I would prob go for it.

Thinking a little more....

A lot of folks think that we will invert the current time of use rates for kWh....instead of high during the day and low at night (like now), it will be almost free during the day and more expensive (keyed to fossil fuel) at night. Getting close to happening in Germany and HI today.

The cheap way to heat would be to run a heat pump (DHW or space heating) during the day, running temps several degrees above current setpoints, to bank the BTUs, then shut 'er down when the sun goes down and cruise on stored heat until the next morning.

woodgeek said:

The cheap way to heat would be to run a heat pump (DHW or space heating) during the day, running temps several degrees above current setpoints, to bank the BTUs, then shut 'er down when the sun goes down and cruise on stored heat until the next morning.

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Kind of like heating with a wood stove...

I like this thread. It's a lot more positive than the article I read this morning about the politics of the 2 warming limit: http://www.vox.com/2014/4/22/5551004/two-degrees

Loving the predictions of $1.50/W installed costs for solar, cause I think the incentives will dry up fast as consumer adoption ramps up.

Here's another LA Times article on forecast electric rates. It's gonna be the haves (with PV) against the have-nots (those who want PV).

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-power-prices-20140426,0,6329274.story#axzz303K8DmpE

On a related note, this NG price projection will likely make me reconsider filling my unused masonry FP with a gas unit. Time to start looking at pellet inserts again.

Apparently the editors of the NY Times read the LA Times...

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/opinion/sunday/the-koch-attack-on-solar-energy.html

paywall?