What do you think Pellets will cost in May of 09?

Now why do you think you'll catch a lot of flack for purchasing in May? It's smart to buy off season. Simple... slam dunk.
As for predicting the prices that far out, in this economy with so much volatility it's the equivalent of forecasting weather for May09. Why bother?

Why would you catch flack? I always purchase my winter supply of
pellets in the springtime for the upcoming season and won't apologize
for it.

Hopefully this coming spring the supply will catch up to the demand
and the prices will come back down....but....who knows.
There are ALOT of people buying stoves and pellets this year.

Impossible to guess what pellets will cost.
Obviously we all hope they will go down in price.
Many of us go for the early buy option in April.
This year I ordered mid april and didn't receive
the shipment until july.
In summer of 2005 I started looking for a stove.
That year the boom was the same or pretty close
to what it is now. Same crap. Tough to get a stove,
tough to get pellets. When you could find either
the prices were high like they are now.

There is nothing wrong with buying your total supply in the spring. Being prepared is a yankee thing. We always had a years supply of wodd cut and split in the garage, and another year plus seasoning in the yard. Now we buy a years worth of pellets at a time and some call us a pig.. Go Figure..
I dont think we will see a big drop in prices in the spring. Many people bought stoves this year and there are also many that are having a hard time getting pellets. I think many of those folks are going to also look at buying pellets in the spring. I bet next year will be the biggest year in pellet sales yet. I dont know if the industry has increased production enough to take care of that surge yet. A big part will also have to do with what happens to transportation costs next year. We will see..

I purchased in May for this heating season. Got 5 tons of Hammer's Hot Ones for 199/ton.
This is the smart way to buy and I plan on doing the same in 2009. I think the price will be close to the same next year.

Teddy1971 said:

You have alot of individuals stating that there would be more pellets available if people did not "hoard" all the pellets so early in the season. I'm with you in thinking that pellets will be cheapest at its lowest demand (May thru July)

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Obviously there is some pellet hoarding going on, but I would bet my pellets
that most of them are panicked newbies. I got my "normal" supply for this season early.

Think about it-
Backlog of stoves and pellets is because everyone and their uncle is purchasing
stoves this year which automatically creates a shortage of pellets.
Demand is outstripping Supply.

I will not be shocked to see lots of stoves on craigslist this coming spring because some will
decide that maintaining a pellet stove is not what they expected. Saw another news ad on tv
glamorizing how pellet stoves can heat a whole house and they are also maintenance free.
"Just fill with pellets and walk away."

tinkabranc said:

......I will not be shocked to see lots of stoves on craigslist this coming spring because some will decide that maintaining a pellet stove is not what they expected.......

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I agree w/ Tink. There may be LOTS of stoves for sale. If that happens, the trickle down effect may be people buying less or no pellets in the spring/summer (like they did this year), and hopefully, prices will come down.

Personally, I'd be happy with pellets at $190-230/ton. If less, great. If more,

I already cannot believe the amount of pellet and wood stoves available on Craigs list now! People are listing junk that they would have paid someone to take away for them just a year ago. I certainly hope there are not many people that are buying these unsafe old pieces of junk and actually trying to use them.
I do however hope you are correct about new stoves in the spring. I need two more stoves and would love to get a 1/2 price deal on a couple.

Ok this is my take on this.

The main reason to burn a pellet stove is to save money on home heating.
I sold pellets to everyone for $185 a ton in May and June.
Now the end of October I am selling them for $275 to non customers.
My profit is just about the same but slightly more now for a number of reasons.

Why the heck would you not have bought your pellets in the summer. I even call my current customers in April to give them the heads up and attempt to determine the logistics for the upcoming season. This year was off the chart but what can you do and I STILL HAVE PELLETS.

Thank you Pellet Pigs. I do have customers using 5-8 tons of pellets a year. I also have weekend burners that get a bag every Friday but they know they will be paying more.

Eric

Since pellet mills don't shut down in the "off season", the "laws" of supply and demand, dictate early bird specials designed to clear inventory made after everyone has sufficient supply for the current winter and before they want to order for the next winter.

Given that plants are still pushing out this winter's supply and will likely do so (from what I read here) into the winter, the plants may not have a very long inventory build time. The longer they are playing catch up the less likely there will be good early bird specials.

I know I'm going to jump on any deal my supplier publishes as soon as I get the flier. This past year I waited until the last week of the sale (May 30 cut off), and took delivery in early July. The pellets were LITERALLY still hot from the mill. My supplier was picking up his loads at the plant (NEWP Utica facility) and delivering them directly to the customers. Neither my supplier nor the plant had surplus inventory left.

I purchased my pellets back in April from an Agway that had an ad in the local paper. It was for a preseason cash and carry at $174/ton. They happen to be located in an open area, surrounded by farms with lots of space so they allow for pickup of those prebought pellets at any time before Jan 09. I found out last week that they're now sold out for the season (just storing the prepurchased) and their last price was at $299/ton.

I don't buy the Pellet Pig crap. Are all other airlines calling Southwest 'pigs' for prebuying fuel? Are homeowners who prebuy a certain number of gallons of oil, propane or natural gas for the upcoming winter called 'pigs'? Why are pellets any different? I have a name for the other people. They're called 'jealous'.

Bushbuck said:

I already cannot believe the amount of pellet and wood stoves available on Craigs list now! People are listing junk that they would have paid someone to take away for them just a year ago. I certainly hope there are not many people that are buying these unsafe old pieces of junk and actually trying to use them.
I do however hope you are correct about new stoves in the spring. I need two more stoves and would love to get a 1/2 price deal on a couple.

Click to expand...

Your right that most of the stoves on craigslist are junk cause i looked all over. I finally found a good 4yr old breckwell p2000 on CL's for 1500$ with the tiled hearth,log kit and most of the piping. Seemed like a good deal.

By kingquad700, shot with Canon PowerShot A620 at 2008-10-23

There are a couple of possibilities as far as I see it:

1) Oil stays fairly low - below $90 a barrel. This will dampen demand for pellets, and the price will be similar to last year, if not cheaper.
2) However, if demand stays high, I don't see much of a discount this May. The buying pattern has shifted so that there is substantial demand in the late spring and summer. The manufacturers know this. Therefore, they won't be offering the same discounts in the spring as they have in the past.

My personal prediction is that if oil stays low, pellets will be fairly easy to find in January and February. This is because so many more people have pre-bought a winter's worth. Many of these people would have bought during the winter itself.

As for the spring, my best guess is that in the northeast, we'll see pellets at the $250-$275 range. More expensive than last year, but slightly cheaper than right now. But who knows... it's all dependent on the price of oil.

I think you'll see some turbulence over the next year. Pellet manufactures will be playing catchup for some time and will probably not have much excess inventory or incentive to offer low rates this coming spring. Many are now adding extra capacity to meet today's spiking demand needs (which will bite them in the butt). OTOH, I think low oil prices (tied to the struggling economy) will encourage a lot of folks to easily forget the recent high oil prices. People will burn oil (once their current pellet stash runs out) assuming oil prices remain low. And then there are all the people that bought extra pellets this summer so they could rat-hole them to combat the high oil prices... They wont need as many next season .

All of this will lead to the pellet manufactures initially offering few discounts next spring, but they will soon find themselves with a plethora of inventory as few consumers come knocking on their doors come spring/early summer. You'll then see them drastically drop their prices next summer as they need to get rid of all the inventory.

My guess is you'll won't see any $300+ prices again next season, unless the economy turns around and oil spikes again.

abbdog said:

Bushbuck said:

I already cannot believe the amount of pellet and wood stoves available on Craigs list now! People are listing junk that they would have paid someone to take away for them just a year ago. I certainly hope there are not many people that are buying these unsafe old pieces of junk and actually trying to use them.
I do however hope you are correct about new stoves in the spring. I need two more stoves and would love to get a 1/2 price deal on a couple.

Click to expand...

Your right that most of the stoves on craigslist are junk cause i looked all over. I finally found a good 4yr old breckwell p2000 on CL's for 1500$ with the tiled hearth,log kit and most of the piping. Seemed like a good deal.

Click to expand...

Dude....whats with the wires? lol

MainePellethead said:

abbdog said:

Bushbuck said:

I already cannot believe the amount of pellet and wood stoves available on Craigs list now! People are listing junk that they would have paid someone to take away for them just a year ago. I certainly hope there are not many people that are buying these unsafe old pieces of junk and actually trying to use them.
I do however hope you are correct about new stoves in the spring. I need two more stoves and would love to get a 1/2 price deal on a couple.

Click to expand...

Your right that most of the stoves on craigslist are junk cause i looked all over. I finally found a good 4yr old breckwell p2000 on CL's for 1500$ with the tiled hearth,log kit and most of the piping. Seemed like a good deal.

Click to expand...

Dude....whats with the wires? lol

Click to expand...

Yeah, really. You got to dress that stove up a little. Kind of like having a beautiful old car surrounded by weeds.

abbdog said:

Bushbuck said:

I already cannot believe the amount of pellet and wood stoves available on Craigs list now! People are listing junk that they would have paid someone to take away for them just a year ago. I certainly hope there are not many people that are buying these unsafe old pieces of junk and actually trying to use them.
I do however hope you are correct about new stoves in the spring. I need two more stoves and would love to get a 1/2 price deal on a couple.

Click to expand...

Your right that most of the stoves on craigslist are junk cause i looked all over. I finally found a good 4yr old breckwell p2000 on CL's for 1500$ with the tiled hearth,log kit and most of the piping. Seemed like a good deal.

By kingquad700, shot with Canon PowerShot A620 at 2008-10-23

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Is that rear projection widescreen HD with surround sound?/?? Lots of wires, just wondered

I see a phone line cable line clothes line and power cords and i'd rethink the drapes also

I don't think pellets will ever drop below $200 a ton again, at least in new england.

Just a guess, $225.

MainePellethead said:

abbdog said:

Bushbuck said:

I already cannot believe the amount of pellet and wood stoves available on Craigs list now! People are listing junk that they would have paid someone to take away for them just a year ago. I certainly hope there are not many people that are buying these unsafe old pieces of junk and actually trying to use them.
I do however hope you are correct about new stoves in the spring. I need two more stoves and would love to get a 1/2 price deal on a couple.

Click to expand...

Your right that most of the stoves on craigslist are junk cause i looked all over. I finally found a good 4yr old breckwell p2000 on CL's for 1500$ with the tiled hearth,log kit and most of the piping. Seemed like a good deal.

Click to expand...

Dude....whats with the wires? lol

Click to expand...

Yea all my electronics (hdtv/cable internet/dvd/vcr/xbox360/surround sound were in that corner. Got cold out quickly, so i installed the stove 2days ago.

abbdog said:

MainePellethead said:

abbdog said:

Bushbuck said:

I already cannot believe the amount of pellet and wood stoves available on Craigs list now! People are listing junk that they would have paid someone to take away for them just a year ago. I certainly hope there are not many people that are buying these unsafe old pieces of junk and actually trying to use them.
I do however hope you are correct about new stoves in the spring. I need two more stoves and would love to get a 1/2 price deal on a couple.

Click to expand...

Your right that most of the stoves on craigslist are junk cause i looked all over. I finally found a good 4yr old breckwell p2000 on CL's for 1500$ with the tiled hearth,log kit and most of the piping. Seemed like a good deal.

Click to expand...

Dude....whats with the wires? lol

Click to expand...

Yea all my electronics (hdtv/cable internet/dvd/vcr/xbox360/surround sound were in that corner. Got cold out quickly, so i installed the stove 2days ago.

Click to expand...

Well at least you got a stove installed. I'm just jealous of all of you who are not burning oil and gas right now. Waited as long as I could to turn on the heat, now I'm just cringing every time I hear the furnace kick in. Congrats on the deal and the install, hope she burns em' good and hot for you. You'll notice a lot of good natured fun goes on in these forums, so don't take the ribbing to seriously.

Like the initial posting on this -- and many others
I always have jumped in on spring supply for my pellets - ended up with 5.5 tons this year because of the sale nearby. I a good for the year and then some.
And being prepared is a Yankee thing but it is common sense and there is NO shame in that!

my take on this is similar
oil is down - elections are coming - the gulf area is so unstable that oil will never be (albeit temporary glitches) where it once was.
And yes some folks will let em go unmaintained causing them to junk em or go back to oil etc .....
I do think if we pay attention , there will be some decent prices - very hard to predict - hoping for 200 areas - also I am very serious about grouping with 4 others and buying a truck load to get a better price. 5 tons each or even 5 others ...