Will economic woes help or hurt the hearth industry?

ControlFreak said:

Just wondering what your thoughts are on this. Historically, do wood stoves sell better during hard times?

Dan

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With no past experince I would say no, because of the assocaited cost of buying a stove, firewood and installation service which will run a average person lots of $$$. Unless conventional heating a home with gas or oil becomes through the roof in cost I would say more people would be looking for alternative. However, with the collapsing oil market the price of has and HHO has dropped quiet a bit since its high this summer.

Given recent economic data showing that consumer spending stalled significantly last month, I think every sector of the economy is going to perform very, very poorly for the next 3-4 quarters, at a minimum. Although the spot price for crude has fallen, the inflationary impact of it's constant upward march over the past several years is still having a significant inflationary impact that is limiting disposable income for all wage earners (I'm not talking about the wealthy). Now that many people in what were the once "hot" housing markets are actually seeing their homes deflate in value below what they owe, many are struggling just to keep their heads above water. Even if crude was to shoot up, I don't see many being able or willing to invest significant amounts of money for redundant heating systems. So this is a long-winded way of saying the hearth industry will probably suffer along with almost every other sector of the economy. The other thing that may impact it negatively will be regulatory--I'm waiting to see if a newly-energized EPA decides to more tightly regulate the industry or even outlaw the burning of solid fuels, period. In addition to my own budgetary concerns, uncertainty over how aggressive the EPA might be, depending on the elections, was a prime factor in my decision not to buy a high-end, expensive stove. I wouldn't be shocked if we don't see an outright ban on individuals burning solid fuels within the next 4 years.

I think some areas of the hearth industry will see increased business during this tough economic time. Personally, my business has done very well so far this fall with the sale of wood stoves and wood stove parts.

The general instability of fuel oil prices is causing people to search for alternative forms of heating, such as wood. Although tough economic times generally does not bode well for high $$ purchases such as new wood stoves, I feel that when people are faced with the decision of being a slave to the oil market or freeing themselves of that dependency by going to wood, most people would choose to make a nominal investment in the wood heater, with the knowledge that no matter what oil does over the next 20 years, they can always get wood.

As far as the stove parts business goes...it's booming. A lot of the old stoves that have been sitting around for years not being used are suddenly being refurbished as people are scrambling to get an alternative heat source going before full winter sets in.

I guess it all boils down to which market niche you target and how you position yourself within that niche as to whether or not the hearth industry booms or busts. Just my two cents.

Rocky, do you have any evidence that wood burning could be banned in the next 4 years? That just seems absurd. Here in Pennsylvania, some people must burn all there trash on certain days of the week becuase there is no pick-up outside of the cities/towns. At least burning wood is a renewable source of energy - unlike coal or oil.

InTheRockies said:

Given recent economic data showing that consumer spending stalled significantly last month, I think every sector of the economy is going to perform very, very poorly for the next 3-4 quarters, at a minimum. Although the spot price for crude has fallen, the inflationary impact of it's constant upward march over the past several years is still having a significant inflationary impact that is limiting disposable income for all wage earners (I'm not talking about the wealthy). Now that many people in what were the once "hot" housing markets are actually seeing their homes deflate in value below what they owe, many are struggling just to keep their heads above water. Even if crude was to shoot up, I don't see many being able or willing to invest significant amounts of money for redundant heating systems. So this is a long-winded way of saying the hearth industry will probably suffer along with almost every other sector of the economy. The other thing that may impact it negatively will be regulatory--I'm waiting to see if a newly-energized EPA decides to more tightly regulate the industry or even outlaw the burning of solid fuels, period. In addition to my own budgetary concerns, uncertainty over how aggressive the EPA might be, depending on the elections, was a prime factor in my decision not to buy a high-end, expensive stove. I wouldn't be shocked if we don't see an outright ban on individuals burning solid fuels within the next 4 years.

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Deflationary value of homes, is most significate for buyers that puchased property during the height of the "hot" market which would be 2005-2006; they are the ones that will suffer the most. However, if you own more of property that what its worth really becomes relavant if buyers are flipping property or are moving every so offen. For example, I bought my house for 231K in 2002 in NH. I put over 30K in repairs into it. I doubt I would get my return on it. Does it bother me? Not really unless I was going to sell tomorrow,; I do plan on owning this property for years to come and eventuallt property values will cycle back up again, probably in 10 years or so. All so not every economic sector will be preforming very poorly. Those in financial, and most every day consumer products will suffer the most. Myself employed as a mechanicalengineer in the biotech sector has noticed any scaling back. In fact the opposite is true. However, that doe snot mean the biotech sector is not immune. If credit is not available then it will effect biotech as well.

Custerstove said:

Rocky, do you have any evidence that wood burning could be banned in the next 4 years? That just seems absurd. Here in Pennsylvania, some people must burn all there trash on certain days of the week becuase there is no pick-up outside of the cities/towns. At least burning wood is a renewable source of energy - unlike coal or oil.

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I love how some people say wood is renewable. True it is, but I bet I can burn through 3-4 cords faster that what it takes nature to grow back. Take a drive through Italy or Germany, not much forest left there.

POPCORN! PEANUTS!

LONDONDERRY said:

Custerstove said:

Rocky, do you have any evidence that wood burning could be banned in the next 4 years? That just seems absurd. Here in Pennsylvania, some people must burn all there trash on certain days of the week becuase there is no pick-up outside of the cities/towns. At least burning wood is a renewable source of energy - unlike coal or oil.

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I love how some people say wood is renewable. True it is, but I bet I can burn through 3-4 cords faster that what it takes nature to grow back. Take a drive through Italy or Germany, not much forest left there.

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You don't have nearly the percentage of public lands in Europe--much more is privately-owned. Plus, historically, you had a significant period of time in Europe where wood was the only real solid fuel for entire populations to heat with and growing populations created a demand for more agriculture. (Most of Europe's deforestation occurred before the end of the Middle Ages.)

There are significant amounts of land in the US set aside as national forests or parks, especially in the west. (I live in a national forest that is 250 million acres.) There has to be cutting of both under growth and trees to keep a forest healthy--over crowding is not good practice, both for fire management as well as pest control (in this day and age of global trade and travel there's an even greater chance of foreign insects being introduced, intentionally or unintentionally, that may wreck havoc on ecosystems). Seedlings planted in a properly-manged, healthy forest grow more quickly than those planted in areas devastated by forest fires--soil erosion is a problem in forests that have lost a significant percentage of their trees in a fire.

In addition, most modern day populations aren't interested in the labor and effort that goes into wood burning. I suspect wood burners will remain in the minority of most populations in the developed world. Most people would rather have the ease of turning a thermostat or hitting the remote on a gas fireplace to increase the temperature in their homes, even if it has a greater impact on their pocket books.

In the late 1800s NH was almost totally fields and sheep pasture, now we are over 90% forested. I would call that renewable. Oil takes millions of years, trees take decades. If you want to see how renewable trees are go to out WA. I lived in Bremerton for a while and its amazing. There are signs by the road of when a certain plot was last clear cut, then replanted and when the next cut is planned. They are farming trees.

Custerstove said:

Rocky, do you have any evidence that wood burning could be banned in the next 4 years? That just seems absurd. Here in Pennsylvania, some people must burn all there trash on certain days of the week becuase there is no pick-up outside of the cities/towns. At least burning wood is a renewable source of energy - unlike coal or oil.

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No, he doesn't. It's a silly paranoid fantasy that gets repeated around here every once in a while. The amount of pollution emitted in the course of getting those heating oil deliveries to the tank in your basement certainly exceeds the amount emitted by a modern stove. It's nonsense.

I can imagine a movement towards stricter rules about actual smoke that would affect only pre-epa burners, some of those horrible older wood-burning furnaces, etc., but only here and there on a community-by-community basis, and it will rarely be enforced. We aren't going to be seeing the Stove Police in our neighborhoods anytime soon.

The price of fuel and energy seems to drive the hearth industry around here. Last summer when oil was approaching $5 per gallon you couldn't find a stove to buy.

bigfish said:

The price of fuel and energy seems to drive the hearth industry around here. Last summer when oil was approaching $5 per gallon you couldn't find a stove to buy.

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Same round here, I know the local stove shop i've been going to has been slammed. Both parts and stoves are flying out the door. It hasnt just been busy on the weekends either, its been almost three months of crazy business.

gyrfalcon said:

Custerstove said:

Rocky, do you have any evidence that wood burning could be banned in the next 4 years? That just seems absurd. Here in Pennsylvania, some people must burn all there trash on certain days of the week becuase there is no pick-up outside of the cities/towns. At least burning wood is a renewable source of energy - unlike coal or oil.

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No, he doesn't. It's a silly paranoid fantasy that gets repeated around here every once in a while. The amount of pollution emitted in the course of getting those heating oil deliveries to the tank in your basement certainly exceeds the amount emitted by a modern stove. It's nonsense.

I can imagine a movement towards stricter rules about actual smoke that would affect only pre-epa burners, some of those horrible older wood-burning furnaces, etc., but only here and there on a community-by-community basis, and it will rarely be enforced. We aren't going to be seeing the Stove Police in our neighborhoods anytime soon.

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This is how it will start.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/01/BA3313SCRV.DTL

Not gonna happen - wood is here to stay. It's true that the EPA may ban some of the big polluting machines, which they should, but generally wood is going nowhere. There's no politician that can survive that move.

Custerstove said:

Rocky, do you have any evidence that wood burning could be banned in the next 4 years? That just seems absurd. Here in Pennsylvania, some people must burn all there trash on certain days of the week becuase there is no pick-up outside of the cities/towns. At least burning wood is a renewable source of energy - unlike coal or oil.

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In our area of Illinois, the popular wood burning boilers that folks living in the country use to heat their homes are indeed being outlawed for use in the city ---- but its for safety reasons, not pollution. I agree that it would be incredible, unpopular, and unenforceable law to make burning of solids unlawful. No family fireplaces?! That ain't gonna happen.

Any politician can survive as long as they get paid or pay the right people. Pay the right people. Spin it the right way.

The next few years will be hard on all industry. While people will have a hard time paying for heat, they don't have disposable income or the credit to buy a new stove. Used stove will be selling, but I think new stoves sales will be lean.

When there are that many people jammed into a certain space, any source of pollution will be an issue. In many other western and midwest states, lighting a fire in your stove is not going to be noticed by anyone. If you live in areas that ban burning, you have a choice: Stay or GO !

LONDONDERRY said:

Custerstove said:

Rocky, do you have any evidence that wood burning could be banned in the next 4 years? That just seems absurd. Here in Pennsylvania, some people must burn all there trash on certain days of the week becuase there is no pick-up outside of the cities/towns. At least burning wood is a renewable source of energy - unlike coal or oil.

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I love how some people say wood is renewable. True it is, but I bet I can burn through 3-4 cords faster that what it takes nature to grow back. Take a drive through Italy or Germany, not much forest left there.

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A very old rule of thumb, was two cords per acre of wood lot. The real issue is not as much about renewability as it is that Burning wood is carbon neutral.

BB kinda sorda posted a similar thread last week or so. I hadn't been to my stove shop to inquire so I sent a couple of the bigger shops an e-mail inquiring about a couple of the top of the line stoves they carry. I said i'm interested, what's price and lead time?. They said for both models "sorry, gotta order them and you'd be lucky to see them by January". So either the factories really can't keep up with demand OR demand is being artificially set. Dunno which.

[quote authorA very old rule of thumb, was two cords per acre of wood lot. The real issue is not as much about renewability as it is that Burning wood is carbon neutral.[/quote]


Actually, the old rule one face cord per acre or three acres per cord.

It will probably be good for us that have stoves already. With oil prices falling to the mid 50's per barrel and gas and oil prices falling by nearly $3 a gallon in some places (my oil quote went from $4.70 to $2.10 a gallon), the demand for wood should ease which would also drop the price per cord. How long will this last? Who knows. I think it will be a short term thing, though I hope it lasts for quite some time.

At the very least, you would think you would see wood prices dropping come this spring.

I was one of those "Oh my god, oil pricing sucks, lets get a wood stove" types. And I am glad I was. Even with prices below last year's levels, the wood stove still can save me money while keeping the house much warmer.

None of us that have been burning wood for 10-20-30+ years should discount the fact that many of the "newbies" are discovering (real heat) for the first time. Lets be honest here people-it just simply feels better to heat with wood, the warmth that you get from it is like no other.

Some of the newbies will jump back on the fossil bandwagon, but many won`t. Many will realize that it is the "best bang for the buck".. And there are lots of old pre-epa stoves and inserts to be had.. I know, cause I just sold my old dragon ;-)

And even those old dragons, when priced right, generate many,many, phone calls. And whether we like it or not, there are gonna be a whole lot of those sold. Only thing we can do--is when they or if they visit this forum is to advise them to "burn hot and clean"-- like I used to do with mine.

And sooner or later--they will discover that the newer epa stoves/inserts burn a whole lot less wood, for way more heat. And then we get to chat with them all over again :smirk: