Will there be a huge pellet shortage this year?

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72tx340

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Feb 10, 2009
8
maine
We have a pellet maker up here in northern maine but has shut down, he cant get the raw product anymore due to mills shutting down. What will this do to the pellet market? At 270 a ton right now fuel oil is probably cheaper for now. Do you think they will use new trees to make them?
 
At $300 ++ / ton for pellets, and heating oil @ $2.20 / gallon....... I'd say things are looking bleak for the pellet industry in the northeast.
 
Your Question:

Will there be a huge pellet shortage this year?

Shaking my magic 8 ball I see that there will not be a shortage.

Unless I'm wrong.

Cheers

Kenny
 
There certainly won't be any shortages if they keep charging $300 / ton! I can't believe anyone other than propane users would be paying this much for pellets... what a ripoff!!!
 
they are going to build a big biomass powerplant in my town. urggghh, there goes a buttload of raw materials that could have been used for pellets!
 
Wet1 said:
There certainly won't be any shortages if they keep charging $300 / ton! I can't believe anyone other than propane users would be paying this much for pellets... what a ripoff!!!

hmm, $300 a ton, my average usage is 1 ton a month.. when I was using fuel oil, I was using about 300 gallons. even if fuel oil is $2.00 a gallon ( won't be) that is $600 a month, so I guess I will pay $300 for a ton of pellets if need be...
 
Yes prices are really holding.
Last year at this time there were pellets in NH for $ 211.00 ton.
 
i hope it tanks in the middle of may
 
72tx340 said:
We have a pellet maker up here in northern maine but has shut down, he cant get the raw product anymore due to mills shutting down. What will this do to the pellet market? At 270 a ton right now fuel oil is probably cheaper for now. Do you think they will use new trees to make them?


Where did you hear that the Northern Maine mill was closed? I was there the other day picking up some pellets and they were running! Check your facts. Rumors..
 
pelletpro said:
johnnywarm said:
i hope it tanks in the middle of may

there ya go Johnny! Thats just what our Econony needs more unemployment.. You must work for the government.


The price of pellets is what we are talking about.you must work for the government,you didnt know the economy already tanked.
 
chrisasst said:
Wet1 said:
There certainly won't be any shortages if they keep charging $300 / ton! I can't believe anyone other than propane users would be paying this much for pellets... what a ripoff!!!

hmm, $300 a ton, my average usage is 1 ton a month.. when I was using fuel oil, I was using about 300 gallons. even if fuel oil is $2.00 a gallon ( won't be) that is $600 a month, so I guess I will pay $300 for a ton of pellets if need be...

1 ton of pellets = 115 gallons of HHO, you use 1 ton of pellets a month or 300 gallons of HHO, something is not adding up.
 
slls said:
chrisasst said:
Wet1 said:
There certainly won't be any shortages if they keep charging $300 / ton! I can't believe anyone other than propane users would be paying this much for pellets... what a ripoff!!!

hmm, $300 a ton, my average usage is 1 ton a month.. when I was using fuel oil, I was using about 300 gallons. even if fuel oil is $2.00 a gallon ( won't be) that is $600 a month, so I guess I will pay $300 for a ton of pellets if need be...

1 ton of pellets = 115 gallons of HHO, you use 1 ton of pellets a month or 300 gallons of HHO, something is not adding up.

It can add up just fine slls, in a large number of oil fired heating systems you can lose 50% or more of the heating value of oil and that is regardless of combustion efficiency.
 
slls said:
chrisasst said:
Wet1 said:
There certainly won't be any shortages if they keep charging $300 / ton! I can't believe anyone other than propane users would be paying this much for pellets... what a ripoff!!!

hmm, $300 a ton, my average usage is 1 ton a month.. when I was using fuel oil, I was using about 300 gallons. even if fuel oil is $2.00 a gallon ( won't be) that is $600 a month, so I guess I will pay $300 for a ton of pellets if need be...

1 ton of pellets = 115 gallons of HHO, you use 1 ton of pellets a month or 300 gallons of HHO, something is not adding up.
Sure it adds up, you just have to use that optimistic magic pellet math. Remember, oil systems operate at <50% efficiency, but with pellets you get 100%+ efficiency. ;)
 
Wet1 said:
slls said:
chrisasst said:
Wet1 said:
There certainly won't be any shortages if they keep charging $300 / ton! I can't believe anyone other than propane users would be paying this much for pellets... what a ripoff!!!

hmm, $300 a ton, my average usage is 1 ton a month.. when I was using fuel oil, I was using about 300 gallons. even if fuel oil is $2.00 a gallon ( won't be) that is $600 a month, so I guess I will pay $300 for a ton of pellets if need be...

1 ton of pellets = 115 gallons of HHO, you use 1 ton of pellets a month or 300 gallons of HHO, something is not adding up.
Sure it adds up, you just have to use that optimistic magic pellet math. Remember, oil systems operate at <50% efficiency, but with pellets you get 100%+ efficiency. ;)

100% I think not.

Some folks really need to look at exactly where the heat from burning fuels actually goes.

You might be surprised. Some heating systems just aren't worth having and some can be helped a lot by simple changes.
 
Well Smokey, I've been heating my house with pellets on and off for 9 years now and I can tell you w/o any doubt, it takes a hell of a lot more that 1 ton of pellets to heat my house to the same degree that 300 gallons of oil will!!!!!!!!!!

Some folks really need to stop blowing smoke where the sun doesn't shine...
 
Wet1 said:
Well Smokey, I've been heating my house with pellets on and off for 9 years now and I can tell you w/o any doubt, it takes a hell of a lot more that 1 ton of pellets to heat my house to the same degree that 300 gallons of oil will!!!!!!!!!!

Some folks really need to stop blowing smoke where the sun doesn't shine...

Let me see Wet1, you have experience with exactly how many oil burning systems?

The effective heating ability of any heating system depends upon more than the amount and type of fuel burned even within the same structure.

You might wish to do some research around the topic of heat loss in heating systems.

So who is blowing smoke where?
 
I'm not a pellet user, but isn't there a pellet shortage every year? Seems once November hits, most places just don't have em... That constitutes a shortage.
 
karri0n,

I haven't seen a shortage yet, now good pellets at a decent price is a different matter.
 
SmokeyTheBear said:
karri0n,

I haven't seen a shortage yet, now good pellets at a decent price is a different matter.


Here there was a shortage.when you cannot just buy and remove,you are told 4 months come back after you pay in full that day??? thats a shortage.
 
SmokeyTheBear said:
Let me see Wet1, you have experience with exactly how many oil burning systems?
Well, I've only lived in 12 different houses with oil heating systems and worked on several others... although I'm certainly no expert.

The effective heating ability of any heating system depends upon more than the amount and type of fuel burned even within the same structure.
Sure it does, but I've never seen, or heard of, a properly functioning heating system that is as inefficient as what you're suggesting.

You might wish to do some research around the topic of heat loss in heating systems.
LOL, I've done my fair share of research on this. According to you, it's normal for 1 ton of pellets to replace 300 gallons of oil???

Okay. So let's assume a ton of pellets contains approximately 16,400,000 gross BTU, and they are used in a stove that has 75% efficiency, which are reasonable assumptions. This leaves us with 12,300,000 net BTU.

300 gallons of # 2 fuel oil contains 41,700,000 gross BTU. In order for this system to (under)achieve the same 12,300,000 net BTU, it would need to be running at only 29% efficiency... or a whopping 71% loss! You think this is normal for a central heating system?!?!?!

So who is blowing smoke where?
I think it's quite clear my friend. ;)
 
Oh then you haven't seen the lovely flue heat losses of some oil fired systems, or the heat losses from the placement of the heat transfer pipes along uninsulated exterior walls in hydronic systems, or the heat that never really makes it out of the basement if the system is steam and especially if the steam lines are not properly insulated, or from blocked hot air ducts and filters.

Need I go on?

I've done the heating thing with oil, natural gas, wood, coal, and now pellets, using hot air, hot water, and steam.

I can tell you for a fact that what is out there for housing stock runs the gamut with a very large percentage in the unbelievably under performing category.

All the 300 gallon vs 1 ton person needs is a couple of leaks in his hot water system and I'd say yes the math does in fact add up.

I guess I should edit this to add that those two leaks don't need to even be water leaks.
 
Kenny said:
Shaking my magic 8 ball I see that there will not be a shortage.

Unless I'm wrong.

Cheers

Kenny

Hey Kenny, will you shake that 8 ball and see how the lottery is looking for me?
 
johnnywarm said:
SmokeyTheBear said:
karri0n,

I haven't seen a shortage yet, now good pellets at a decent price is a different matter.


Here there was a shortage.when you cannot just buy and remove,you are told 4 months come back after you pay in full that day??? thats a shortage.

Well I was told that you couldn't get pellets around here but it seemed every place I went I could find pellets. I was also told the same thing about getting a pellet stove last summer.

Funny I had absolutely zero difficulty getting a stove or pellets.

I think a lot of it depends upon where you live and if you know where to look.

If it wasn't for the fact that a bag weighs 40 lbs I could walk to 4 places that had pellets for sale. I have since found a number of other places that sell them within just a few miles.

Now I do know of family members who still haven't gotten their stove, but then it was an insert. Even they had a good supply of pellets and were wondering what all the hoopla about pellets was about. Let's see I have personal knowledge about 5 different families who scored both stoves and pellets when there was supposed to be a "shortage" and one family who got pellets but not a stove.
 
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