Pellets for next season... so, what's the plan?

Oil could go up, or down. Pellets could do the same. There could be another big hurricane in the Gulf and shut down oil production, or nothing could happen like that.....I think what you said pretty much says it all....it's all a crapshoot. There are SO MANY things that could happen (or NOT happen), I think you just make an informed decision, and will have to live with it regardless of what happens.

I got burned with $4.19/gal oil last summer, but what was I supposed to do? Had to have some just to be safe, and never thought it would come back near $2.00....not in my wildest dreams. Then I paid anywhere from $239-300/ton for pellets....

IMO, I think if you can get good quality pellets for around $250/ton, you have to go for it.

abrucerd said:

Many people are saying that prices may stay high, even for early purchasing. And oil has dropped from what it was last year.

Depending on your area, it may be cheaper to burn oil instead of pellets right now. So what's the best course of action?

Is it better to plan for using oil while prices are low, and play the waiting game with pellets? i'm hesitant to do this because if oil jumps again, and I miss out on any early bird specials with pellets, then I'll be p!ssed.

Should I buy *some* pellets in the coming weeks just to cover my bases?

What do you guys think?

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Buy what you can afford, If oil is cheaper for you, then that's what you should do. Unless you find a deal on pellets why bother!

just my 2

jay

It's still winter around here. I'm not concerned about early buys till late April or May when demand drops. Paid 200 a ton last week at TSC so prices will drop in May for my local brands which are at $220 and $230 now. I'm more concerned about corn being less than pellets in the fall. A propane prebuy in August won't compete with pellets so fossil fuel is not an option for me.

Here is what I do: I always watch for deals. There is always someone on Craigslist trying to get rid of some pellets. I just bought four tons here in Maine for $200 per ton. The people bought their pellets and then ordered their Harman stove, the stove never came so I got a good deal on some pellets. In Maine their is another place called Uncle Henry's and there is people selling cheap pellets there too. Uncle Henrys wont do you any good unless you are in Maine or NH. So just keep your eyes open and when you see a deal from anywhere you can find one buy it. Dont forget to wheel and deal and try to talk people down on their price too. The worst they can say is no.

I'm buying 10.5 tons from pelletsales.com. With delivery it will be $249 a ton and the pellets are LG Granules. They are awesome pellets. I'm not burning 10 tons myself. I am burning 5 tons and a friend is taking the other 5 tons. That's the way to do it. Buy in bulk with others if you can.

I only order enough to get me through the winter and usually will have a couple
of bags left over by the end of the season.

But, with pellet fuel vs. fossil fuel this year, I started to run the stove part-time
to save on my current supply of pellets. Less for me to buy for next season.
There is not much left in my pockets but lint these days anyway.

The rest of my plan is to sit on the fence, watch prices, and purchase
more pellets if/when the prices become reasonable again.

i'm pulling out the pellet stove and buying a new wood stove,wood around me $150 a cord 4 cords $600.00 pellets 3 ton @$300.00 $900.00 and being i just bought my pelletstove in sept ill hold on to it that way i can go back to it if pellets get cheaper i'm still young enough to hoss wood let the pellet mills put themselves out of bussiness they are just being money hungry a-holes

In my short 4 year experience with this stove, I've
found that the best price for pellets is between March
and June. After June the prices go up...at least I"ve
not seen them drop after that in my area.

IMHO it could go both ways. All the new pellet stove owners will stick it out and just buy the pellets at any price to cut our dependence from foreign oil, or you'll see alot of pellet stoves on craigslist this summer. People tend to forget things over time. In this economy though I would think they would put their money(what little we still have) back in AMERICA. Give it to the homegrown companies who took a chance to start a new business instead of the greedy countries WHO DONT EVEN LIKE US!! The only way things will get better is if we all invest in our own country. Even if pellets equals or exceeds oil, stick with the pellets. Its renewable, homegrown, and puts AMERICANS to work!! It will even out. Alot of new pellet mills are being planned and built. To give up on them would be a slap in their face. Then you'll cry again in a few years that oil is too high again and what happend to the pellet factories that were planned. You'll kill'em before they make one pellet. And who would dare try to build a mill again after that. Lets just give them our support and try to buy american pellets over foreign oil.

In the heart of the winter lets say Nov - feb I used 250 gallons a month of oil. Even at 2 bucks a gallon its still cheaper for me to pay 300 a ton for pellets

I have committed to buying 5 tons of pellets in the price range of $190-$220 per ton. Local saw mill here will take my order and others until he has a a few truck loads, then he spends the summer looking for a good deal on quality product which he knows about. He will then call me and tell me what the final price is and I will pick them up over the winter one ton at a a time as I need them. He does this to help people out and to support his industry, timber byproducts.

I have a LP furnace , that is hooked up to very very poorly retro fitted duct work. LP would have to be DARN cheap for me to go back to it as a heat source.

I wish I could tell you folks what to do. I sell the pellets and have no idea whats going to happen! I think some of you are right in that there is some isolated examples of people gouging pellet pricing, but I have to say I think its rare. Its so hard to determine whats "fair" because "fair" is so subjective! Gouging? Anyone had to hire a lawyer lately?

As for pellets, I'll throw in my two cents too....I dont KNOW the answers, all I can do is tell you what I "think". There is a shortage, even now. We are having no problem selling the pellets we are bringing in, and that mystifies me, as the oil price is so low. I can only think its folks worried about a shortage as well. We have gotten a contract price from one supplier, and in looking at our cost and the freight, I dont see the price dropping MUCH in the short term...maybe a little. As for pricing this summer/fall......well, maybe you are right, maybe there will be alot of pellets hanging around, which would force the price down, but I dont think so. The manufacturers are starting with their contracts soon to retailers, and that will basically "set" the price, for the quarter at least. As for using raw, virgin product for pellets, sure, it can be done, but the elevated price would likely put the retail price too high, and the mills likely wont take much of a gamble there. There is a very real shortage of dust now though, as many alluded to.

I guess it kind of boils down to your judgement and intuition. Personally, I think that theres already a shortage, and I think it will continue. I will be buying my own pellets this Spring, not knowing what the oil price will be come next fall or winter.....I dont think theres much more downside left in the oil market.

My oil dealer has agreed to provide a pre-pay price around the same time my pellet dealer will give me the early purchase prices. I estimated the amount of oil and pellets I use each winter and have a general idea what is more cost effecitve based on the price. In spring I will decide if I pay for pellets or oil for the whole year. I know the concerns with paying for oil, yet with oil I know I will have fuel for my house in the winter. Based on the pellet shortage last year and cunsumers paying early and having trouble receiving the pellets they paid for there is still a potential issue with receiving the needed fuel. Alot of dealers rationed the pellets even if the consumer pre-paid. The pellet undustry has to address this issue soon or I think consumers will try and avoid another year of worrying if they will have enough pellets to heat their houses or if they will get their money back on early purchases. It was stated this past winter that it was a lack of source for making the pellets and it wasn't a production issue. This was based on fewer wood products being manufactured and the increase in wood pellet stove purchases and wood pelelt demand.

Hmmm, Wood Pellet User. You were saying your oil dealer was going to provide you with a pre-pay price for oil right about the same time as the early purchase pellet plans come out. In this scenario, arent you basically doing the same thing? Arent you paying ahead for a product you havent received? What happens if the oil company goes out of business? What happens if the oil company has bad credit or overextends and cant get any/enough oil from suppliers? I think the key here, after deciding whether one's going to buy pellets or not, is to actually buy (or not), the pellets and GET THEM DELIVERED OR PICK THEM UP. By getting them on-site, you dont have to worry about the fluctuating and/or "spiking", or "gouging" of prices, and you know the fuel is there when you need it. Reputable pellet dealers wont sell stock they dont have sitting on the ground....with many of the dealer I know, the only "bottleneck", so to speak, is with folks who need delivery, and coordinating such deliveries....typically the orders come in faster than the deliveries can be made. Or, of course, they can be picked up, and you can totally avoid any delivery charges and uncertainty of delivery at all.

dave1966 said:

i'm pulling out the pellet stove and buying a new wood stove,wood around me $150 a cord 4 cords $600.00 pellets 3 ton @$300.00 $900.00 and being i just bought my pelletstove in sept ill hold on to it that way i can go back to it if pellets get cheaper i'm still young enough to hoss wood let the pellet mills put themselves out of bussiness they are just being money hungry a-holes

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Oh yes. You will save $300 , but as I recall burning cordwood for 12 years was very time consuming and an immense amount of work not to mention there was always a mess to clean up whether it was ashes , dirt, bugs, chimney cleaning or wood debris and by it`s very nature always a risk as a potential fire hazard , and it required someone to babysit the stove for up to an hour 3 times a day after reloading since any approved wood stove has required emissions standards to meet and therefore needs to be manually adjusted after initial charring of the refilled firebox.
I would have to be hurting financially real bad to be forced to return to that way of heating.
And I was burning a state of the art high tech wood stove that is still being made and currently considered high end. It heated my entire house with 3 cords a year. (Pacific Energy Spectrum , super series)
Not that a pellet stove is perfect or cheap either but having to go backwards is a horrible thought for me.

I have used pretrolium products for decades and never have had a problem with availaibility. My current dealer has been in business for many years and when I did use oil they never missed a fill up or did I ever worry about availability. I hope the pellet industry resolves their issues because I like using the pellet stove and it is my priorty, however, I am trying to avoid another year of rations.

I saw do what is the best for you. I have Propane forced air furnace and have not ran it in 2 yrs. we do have two hot water tanks that use Propane. I have two pellet stoves and a wood stove. The wood stove gets fired up when it is below freezing. I think we have burned 4 tons of pellets so far. I am not sure since I bring a bag home from work every now and then.

If heating oil is cheap, use it. Propane is a lot cheaper around here if you are on a monthly plan. If you can get it cheap, use it.

Around here, N/E Ohio I have been selling pellets at $285 for non-stove customers and stove customers get a better price. In May and June of 2008 I had pellets for $185.00. I know that we will never see that price again. I do not think there will be a "Summer Buy Program" like there has been in the past.

I have ordered 4 Harman Coal stoves for show room displays (Mark I, Mark II, DVC-500, and a TLC-2000). I also think I will be swapping out one of the pellet stoves at the house for a coal stoker. That is how I feel. I still have and will have pellet stoves on display.

Eric

' let the pellet mills put themselves out of bussiness they are just being money hungry a-holes'[/quote]

I second that!

kinsman stoves said:

I have ordered 4 Harman Coal stoves for show room displays (Mark I, Mark II, DVC-500, and a TLC-2000). I also think I will be swapping out one of the pellet stoves at the house for a coal stoker. That is how I feel. I still have and will have pellet stoves on display.

Eric

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Given the choice of coal or wood pellets (knowing now what I wish I did when I got into the pellet game), I would highly recommend a coal stove over a pellet stove.

Coal is another way to go. Thats STILL better than oil. Maybe someday we'll use our own oil and stop importing. As for pellets, maybe they'll go the way of the cabbage patch kid or tickle me elmo. A passing fad for the masses, then the prices will come back down for the diehards. the irony is, we praise aloud how wonderful our stoves our, and shout it on a mountain top how much we save. Then when everyone hears us and gets on the bandwagon, We're upset that the prices went up. Damn that supply and demand. :shut:

A quick price search looks like coal prices are pretty high right now too, at least in my area. $300/ton -ish.
I was under the impression coal was a lot cheaper than pellets.

Gweeper64 said:

A quick price search looks like coal prices are pretty high right now too, at least in my area. $300/ton -ish.
I was under the impression coal was a lot cheaper than pellets.

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Same her too! Looks like corn gonna be the way i go next year. About $200 a ton right now.

jay

I was quoted a price of $349.00 a ton for coal in Auburn, Maine, yesterday at a hardware/feed store.

The sales person said he has about five or six customers that purchase coal on a regular basis.

That price is not a good inducement for me to make a switch from pellets ( stove ) and firewood ( boiler ) to coal.

Gweeper64 said:

A quick price search looks like coal prices are pretty high right now too, at least in my area. $300/ton -ish.
I was under the impression coal was a lot cheaper than pellets.

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It is cheaper.

Guys, keep in mind anthracite coal contains about 12,500 btu per pound, wood pellets are about 8,250. So yes, coal might seem even more expensive than coal (in some areas), but it may not be when you look at the btu/$.

Example... anthracite at $350/ton buys you 71,428 btu/$. Wood pellets at $300 a ton buys you only 55,000 btu/$. So in this case you're getting 30% more btu per $ with the coal than you are with wood pellets.

If both are $300/ton, the coal contains 83,333 btu/$, or over 50% more btu/$ than wood pellets!

BTW, if you live close enough to the mine(s), coal can be bought dirt cheap.