Feb 2..."ground hog day"..."candlemas day"...1/2 way point of winter. Does anyone know of any temperature "forecasters" for the finish of winter? I'm gonna be at my halfway point nearer to Jan 10th....Looking like a 25,000lb year for me!!
1/2 your wood and 1/2your hay must remain on candlemas day
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Mr._Graybeard
Feeling the Heat
Bioburner
Moderator
Can't believe we ate 2 tons. Two tons left in house. Been one of the ten coldest Decembers and no let up for this week. Yesterdays high -10 but the wind came down from gusts of 45
Flammam
Feeling the Heat
Going to be close here. Just looked at the pellet stash and if it stays this cold I may be looking at the fifth ton. Most I have ever burned is 4 1/4 tons but I started early this year and have just kept going.
Mr._Graybeard
Feeling the Heat
I'm just over 2-1/2 tons, higher than expectations but not too far off the mark -- yet.
It was pointed out to me recently that Russia has been having an abnormally warm winter. Here are Moscow's temps for December. Much of November was above normal too ... an interesting inverse of conditions
It was pointed out to me recently that Russia has been having an abnormally warm winter. Here are Moscow's temps for December. Much of November was above normal too ... an interesting inverse of conditions
I just finished my first ton. I started burning on Nov 23rd and put the last bag in on x-mas morning. i only bought 2 tons since I had no idea how much I would need.
About 95 bags so far. Breckwell Big E is on 3, 67 degrees, (any hotter wife complains) just dropped to 10 F outside. Have yet to turn her up to 4, and not a drop of oil has been burned through furnace yet. Got 4 tons of Barefoot Super Premium's left.
Pellet-King
Minister of Fire
Little Christmas................Little Christmas (Irish: Nollaig Bheag) is one of the traditional names in Ireland for 6 January, more commonly known in the rest of the world as the Feast of the Epiphany. It is sometime thought that it is called this because under the older Julian calendar, Christmas Day celebrations fell on that day whereas under the Gregorian calendar it falls on 25 December. However the eastern tradition of celebrating the birth of Jesus on January 6 precedes the creation of the Gregorian Calendar by hundreds of years. By the year 1500 AD eastern Churches were celebrating Christmas on January 6 and western churches were celebrating it on December 25 even though both were using the Julian Calendar.[1] It is the traditional end of the Christmas season and the last day of the Christmas holidays for both primary and secondary schools in Ireland.[2]
So, being a big geek I built a rather elaborate spreadsheet model to help me record and predict pellet use as I added a second stove this year. According to it, your halfway point for an Oct 1 to April 15 burning season is right on track at about Jan. 10.
Personally I've been adding to my initial 3 tons and will use about 4 here in Eastern PA, near Philly. The model uses both my initial estimate and actual use over time to predict pellet needs, and I revised the estimate in November. As of today I'm now 1 bag over estimated, season to date (Dec 31). But we're scheduled for near zero temps and a snowstorm here at week's end, so who knows how much that will throw it off.
Also, if anyone wants the spreadsheet just let me know. It's posted here somewhere but can just email it if needed, and I've improved it slightly from the original.
Personally I've been adding to my initial 3 tons and will use about 4 here in Eastern PA, near Philly. The model uses both my initial estimate and actual use over time to predict pellet needs, and I revised the estimate in November. As of today I'm now 1 bag over estimated, season to date (Dec 31). But we're scheduled for near zero temps and a snowstorm here at week's end, so who knows how much that will throw it off.
Also, if anyone wants the spreadsheet just let me know. It's posted here somewhere but can just email it if needed, and I've improved it slightly from the original.
Harvey Schneider
Minister of Fire
I've used just over 1.6 out of 4 tons so far. Consumption rate is in excess of two bags a day right now so I expect to consume about 0.4 ton (2 bags a day x 10 days). That puts me right on target.
SmokeyTheBear
Minister of Fire
I don't worry about such issues, buy plenty so you always have more than you burn in a season. I'm a certified cheapskate but when it comes to being warm or freezing my hind quarters off I choose warm and buy accordingly.
It was -12
earlier this morning and this critter was warm.
Harvey, isn't Candlemas more than 10 days away?
It was -12
earlier this morning and this critter was warm.Harvey, isn't Candlemas more than 10 days away?
Yep, just plain old Excel. I think the board has a PM function. Will try sending today via that. If not will send you my email and will figure that out. Allows for tracking up to 3 stoves (I'm doing two) and both you entered estimate and actual usage to date, with various weightings toward either.
brokenknee
Burning Hunk
I will try to save you a bunch of emails.
The spreadsheet is listed here, post 6 https://www.hearth.com/talk/threads/tracking-pellet-usage.115874/
The spreadsheet is listed here, post 6 https://www.hearth.com/talk/threads/tracking-pellet-usage.115874/
Thanks, Brokenknee. I just updated that thread with an improved (Blank) version and also an example of how I'm using the spreadsheet, completed through yesterday (12/31/13). Here is the link to that thread. SEE POST #12: https://www.hearth.com/talk/threads/tracking-pellet-usage.115874/#post-1619728
I realize many find this type of tracking of no use, but I did it because I added a second stove in my office. I really needed to figure out how much I was using, how much I was likely to burn, and record it for next year. Also, all the box stores near me stop carrying pellets sometime in Feburary (as I recall) and the dealer prices go sky high, so I wanted to have sufficient inventory before that happened. And because of where I store my pellets, I don't like to have too much on hand over the summer because I may have to move them to do maintenance and repairs. And besides, data=info, and that's rarely a bad thing!
DOLLARBILL
Feeling the Heat
I planned on 4 ton this year and have gone through 1&1/2 ton but have another 6ton in reserve ...glad I do !
Bioburner
Moderator
Harvey Schneider
Minister of Fire
smwilliamson
The Stove Guy
boomhour
Burning Hunk
Have been burning from mid-September on, through some of the coldest days this winter has to offer. We have had temps to -37 C and wind chills into the -40's. Power spikes to power outages and around 200 centimeters of snow including a 2-week stint with a neighbor running the stove and looking after the house while we were away. With that being said, this is our main source of heat and we have only burned through 74 bags. Have a half a ton in reserve an will top up mid March with Trebio and Satisfaction unless supply starts to dry up.
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Precisely my reason for creating the tracking sheet and predictive model. They couldn't care less whether we run out of pellets, and frankly it's not their responsibility. So I want to have enough on hand to be comfortable even into those first few chilly days in April. Recent cold spell took a toll on inventory!
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