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2012 Prez Election - who WILL win (in your opinion)

Post in 'The Inglenook' started by webbie, Oct 27, 2012.

?

Who will win?

Poll closed Nov 1, 2012.
  1. Mittens

    17 vote(s)
    45.9%
  2. Big O

    20 vote(s)
    54.1%
  1. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    Ok, another one without too much discussion. Despite who you may be voting for, who do you think will win?

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  2. Backwoods Savage

    Backwoods Savage Minister of Fire

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    Whoever gets the most electoral votes will win.
  3. Pallet Pete

    Pallet Pete Guest

    Right on brother ::-);lol
  4. fossil

    fossil Accidental Moderator Staff Member

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    The candidate with the fewest hanging chads.
  5. Stax

    Stax Minister of Fire

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    The guy on the right ("left" in political terms).
    Mitt & Barack.jpg
  6. BrotherBart

    BrotherBart Hearth.com LLC Mid-Atlantic Division Staff Member

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    Me.
  7. SlyFerret

    SlyFerret Minister of Fire

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    I think that the Libertarian's will win.

    I don't mean that they will win the presidency, but I think they will capture enough of the vote to be recognized as a legitimate party in the 2016 election.

    -SF
  8. Retired Guy

    Retired Guy Feeling the Heat

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    We need another four years like the last. Obama.
  9. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    If the stock market hits 26K in four, sign me up!
  10. Mrs. Krabappel

    Mrs. Krabappel Minister of Fire

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    quit being pervy ::-)
    fossil likes this.
  11. stoveguy2esw

    stoveguy2esw Minister of Fire

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    the thought of the stock market hitting that in that short a time is scary. im not sure the market could be stable with that big a rise that short in time. im not a market analyst but it seems to me that "boom and bust" isnt good for the economy.
  12. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    Hard to say. If it went up "normally" from the 10K or so it was when GW started his term......say, 8% a year, it would be well over 30K by the end of the next term. It's hard to realize how bad the crash was......we basically lost an entire decade or more.
  13. stoveguy2esw

    stoveguy2esw Minister of Fire

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    yeah, thats kinda what i mean. if the stock market shoots up in a boom cycle unchecked it will eventually see a bigger than normal drop at the end of the "boom" some sectors i think would be more harmful than others, for instance the " dot com bubble" while it cost a lot of people a lot of money when it burst, there wasnt nearly as much intrinsic value in hard assets affected outside of the companies which busted, now the housing bubble was a different thing when it busted it affected a lot of people who had nothing to do with the stock market or the construction business which went south as a result. indirectly they got drilled when house values plummetted coupled with a big drop in the overall economy.

    you dont have to be a liberal to understand that the lax regulations involving credit default swaps was one of the biggest drivers of this boom and its eventual bust. its pretty easy to understand.
    to combat this kind of boom and bust cycle the government along with the fed need to use monetary ploicy like a kind of "throttle" when the market gets to building too fast the brakes need to be pumped a few times to not kill the growth but to allow it to grow at a reasonable pace, when the market is depressed methods of taking the binders off( or loosening them so to speak) to allow it to reverse the backward flow should be applied, now im not an economist but i do understand the ebb and flow of the markets and their affect on the economy in general.
  14. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    I suspect that the stock market is not as closely tied to "our" success as before - because a worldwide market now exists for most all products.

    Also, it seems the boom and the bust - have already happened. If we revert to the norm....that is somewhere about 8% growth in the stock market for the last century. If we scale that back a bit to 7% because of low inflation.....and then take a walk back to 1997 or so, before the dot-com boom was too crazy, we'd have something like this:

    Stock market 1997 - 5,000
    with 7% moving forward - today - 13,875
    with 7% for another 4 years - 18000+

    So it would seem that a very conservative number of 18-20K would not fall into a bubble situation. If we used the average of 8% plus from back then, we'd be at 22K - and, remember, that's taking the dot-com and housing and credit bubbles out of the picture.

    Who knows? We could lose two decades.....this was a historic crash and the fact that the government is not working together to solve it hurts the recovery.
  15. andybaker

    andybaker Feeling the Heat

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    I think if the government doesn't step in and do what FDR did it will happen again and again. The investment banks and the traditional banks have to be separated again. It's not right to allow the big banks to come in and gobble up the smaller banks and use that money for speculation. We still have a mess on our hands, one being said is that our currency is backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. What happens when the faith is gone and so is the credit?
  16. basod

    basod Minister of Fire

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    I'm hoping for the unlikely tie scenario.
    House would vote Romney in and then Joey could be the tie breaking vote on the senate floor - for himself of course
  17. Gasifier

    Gasifier Minister of Fire

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    I think Big O will pull it off. It is too close for my liking. What will the House will look like after Nov.?
  18. stoveguy2esw

    stoveguy2esw Minister of Fire

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    i was looking at going from the approx 13K of today to 26K in 4 years (as you said and i realize you were just tossing a number out there) there really isnt a viable way for a doubling of the market in 4 years time without an enormous run in somthing, runs like that rarely have much of a tangible asset backing it , more like a house of cards like the dirivitives market had with the default swaps. when the market grows at a normal pace equal to that of the economy's growth its usually "backed" by somthing solid. i'd love to see the dow at about 18K in 4 years but at 26 i'd be scared it would drop like a rock again when one of the "cards" fell out
  19. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    And then the house GOP would claim they have a clear mandate!
    :)
  20. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    Only two possibilities, IMHO - biotech and ipads/tablets/Tech.

    But, again, if we look beyond our own shores things may look much better.....we may have as much stuff as we need, but much of the world is not that way yet.

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