2016-17 prices?

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CL ad was posted yesterday listing one ton of NEWPS for $125 in Wenham, MA. Ad is already deleted but hope someone here snagged it. As I said in other posts, patience will be rewarded. Nothing like 80-90 degree temps in mid-Sept to drive prices down.
 
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I'm surprised to see pellets starting off at what they were last year. big boxes are same at $259/ton. I believe they will come down due to several factors at play.

1. colder winter expected - this seems to be the only thing they are taking into consideration.
2. people have leftover pellets from last year.
3. oil is cheaper than burning pellets at $259 a ton. pellets are more work than oil.
4. At the end of last year there was a huge surplus of unsold pellets. hundreds of tons and they let them all go at $199 a ton. a lot of pellet users like myself, stocked up on many years worth. I bought so many i was concerned in the beginning about my garage slab being able to hold all those pellets. I will not be buying pellets again for at least 3-4 years unless i see $200 a ton pricing, at which point i will top up the stash. I re-arranged my garage 2 weeks ago and i believe i can fit another 4 tons in there.

I'm concerned though because if we help to control runaway prices by stocking up at low prices like I have, pellet mfg facilities close up shop. several went out of business last season. Next, the big boxes will stop carrying them.

I did find 1 local place already that has cash&carry pellets for 200 a ton. I didnt even stop to look because all summer long those pellets were outside in the yard. they cant be in great shape.
 
My pellet supplier went from selling pellets 2 years ago at $160 a ton next year $220 a ton and now $165 a ton so not so sure there isn't a little extra profit to be made.
 
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