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Crude is down again- big drop today..............

Post in 'The Pellet Mill - Pellet and Multifuel Stoves' started by MCPO, Sep 9, 2008.

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  1. MCPO

    MCPO Minister of Fire

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    ..........but the day ain`t over.
    I saw gas in northern Pa yesterday at 3.44 gal.

    Here`s a site I monitor every morning.


    http://www.oil-price.net/

    Helpful Sponsor Ads!





  2. bungalobob

    bungalobob Feeling the Heat

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    Cool site, have to drop that into my favorites.
  3. imacman

    imacman Guest

    $104.34 at around noon....nice.

    I'd be really happy when (and if) it ever gets back to around $60, but heating oil would have to come back below $2.30/ gal before it would be cheaper for me than pellets.
  4. modemgirl

    modemgirl New Member

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    I'm happy oil is going down for my gas tank, can't do much about using gas YET! I hope this will be a lesson to everyone, that we need other sources of energy! I am looking forward to still using my pellet stove, if oil drops they will also drop pellet and wood prices or they won't be in business, so use your pellet and wood stoves!!! We still need to get away lfrom using oil.
    Oil is down, so where is OUR savings at the grocery store and gas pump? Gas should be near $3.00 a gallon with oil at $104 a barrel. We will not see gas drop to what it should be, nor will we see food back to what it should be with oil down. It's just another reason to sock it to the American consumer.
  5. cac4

    cac4 New Member

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    Don't worry. the Iranians were just saying on the news a couple of days ago that they thought that there was "too much oil on the market", and that they plan on decreasing production to correct that.
    which will drive the prices back up where they want them: high.
  6. glacialhills

    glacialhills Member

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    Our gas prices here near Kalamazoo just went up to 3.95 gal. What the ****? were we not told that the reason gas prices were so high is because of crude oil at all time high? So what's the excuse now when it is at 104.00 a barrel.
  7. MCPO

    MCPO Minister of Fire

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    Actually crude went from about $65 @bl to $147. (more than doubled)in a year. Gasoline went from $2.69 to $4.10 or only a 45% increase.
    Yes it`s still too high for me.
    Regarding the cost increases elsewhere you must know that oil will be the excuse to raise the price of any and every thing but few items will actually ever go down.
    Don`t look for pellets or stoves to ever be what they were. The excuse has made their costs where they are and the downward spiral of oil will not cause anyone to lower the prices.
  8. DiggerJim

    DiggerJim Feeling the Heat

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    Doesn't do much good for home heating oil - the problem is the volume the dealers need to buy and once bought has to be sold at that price. The average fuel oil dealer in the northeast sells 2.5 million gallons of oil a year. They buy it in big freakin deliveries. If they bought it in July, they paid near $4 for it - they've got 1/2 million or more tied up in inventory - they can't sell it for $3 now or they'll lose their business. In fact, lots will anyway if it stays at or near $100/barrel. They've got to finance the purchase of oil and for some of them that means 8 or 10 million dollars for the season - for a business that's "worth" a tenth of that with a market that's declining and rising collection problems. Guess how many banks are willing to line up for that.
  9. gw2kpro

    gw2kpro New Member

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    Great news. A further $30-40 drop and it can again compete with pellets.
  10. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    If history is any guide, pellets and pellets stoves stop selling when the decimal point is even......this happened as recently as last year, when Mr. Harman said "I have 20,000 pellet stoves and no one has ONE reason to buy one"......wise words, but too late for his business (he got bought out)....

    Decimal point even means $3.00 oil and $300 pellets.....pellets are already there (with delivery) in many areas of New England.

    Word from dealers on the street is that pellet stove sales have already died way down.......if heating oil hits $3.00, they will slow further. No matter, the seasons profit is already guaranteed for pellet stove makers and dealers! They sold enough in the last three months to carry them.

    Someday it would be interesting to study the pellet burning market. There are a very small amount of "hard core" users who will use them if the price is equal to or higher than oil. But although YOU or I may be one of those, the market in general does not work that way. As mentioned before, the complete bottom dropped out just last year when pellets went up to $275+ and oil was $2.75+-

    We all think it will be different this time, but hey - the news says large SUVs are starting to sell again!

    A pellet stove for many is an insurance policy and I suppose some are glad if they don't have to use it 24/7. It is amazing to think that we have not yet gone through EVEN ONE WINTER with oil prices at a high level, and yet everyone seems to act like they have been there forever - short memories!
  11. gw2kpro

    gw2kpro New Member

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    Agree that many people will switch back to oil from pellets if oil drops, convenience is king.

    Assuming that the price of pellets stays at $300, the fuel calculator linked on this site shows that heating oil will have to drop to $2.60 in order to give an equivalent cost per BTU (assuming that you put in equivalent effeciencies at 80% for a pellet stove and oil burner, some pellet stoves get better or worse than 80% as do some oil burners -- both my pellet stoves are rated at 80%). Of course, that cost for pellets does not include additional transportation costs (if any) time stacking / cleaning stove, etc.
  12. DiggerJim

    DiggerJim Feeling the Heat

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    I'll use oil when it's cheaper and makes more sense, pellets when they're cheaper. It's just another option for something that up until now I didn't have to have options due to the relatively low price of oil (and I went thru the other fixes -- new windows, insulation, weatherstripping, setback thermostats, sweaters, etc.).

    SUVs can be a good value now. Considering the way their prices have been hammered, the total cost of ownership of an SUV (including the gasoline) may be less than a comparable high-mileage car. A 10 or 12K difference in price can buy an awful lot of gasoline even at $10/gallon.

    I'm doing none of this for the "green" benefits that are not found in Benjamins. I do it for my family's economic well being.

    I'm fascinated to note the concern we all have for oil whose proven reserves have increased every year we've measured them (due to newer technology making previously unaccessible or uneconomical stores recoverable -- like the latest CO2 Injection technology that looks like it will quadruple our recoverable reserves in the U.S.) but are silent concerning other finite resources...like any of a whole bunch of strategic metals where we have no domestic supply (or even metals like aluminum that we do but which is getting harder to find & mine). Almost 99% of the platinums are found in South Africa or Russia along with 98% of the manganese, 97% of the vanadium, 96% of the chromium...we don't make high strength steel without metals for the alloys found in two pretty dicey countries. We are far more dependent on Russia for our steel production (for things like jet engines) than we are on OPEC for oil.

    And what is your stove made of :)
  13. R&D Guy

    R&D Guy New Member

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    Agreed, that is a cool link. Thanks for posting it I've been looking for something like that.
  14. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    Ha, digger, you are assuming that the average Joe or Pol knows we need chromium! Also, I saw that discovery channel special on Allegheny Ludlum and they are using recycled batteries for the nickel (in stainless).......pretty amazing how they separate it all out!

    Interesting to note the scarcity of those valuable metals. We take so much for granted, but yet are so interdependent. All those fools who think we can just close off the world and survive here obviously don't know about metallurgy!

    I agree - oil is not a problem. I never thought it was. Sure, we have to value it more. Lack of efficiency and sanity is the problem. (Wasteful behaviors and processes)

    As far as Pellets to Oil - yes, the even-decimal situation still leave pellets a little cheaper....but not enough, IMHO, to make up for the hassle and the costs - which is why folks tend to stop right around there. People are pretty smart when it comes to money...it amazes me sometimes. It's hard to ever find an item on ebay or craigslist which sells for less than it is worth!
  15. MCPO

    MCPO Minister of Fire

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    What a difference a day makes!
    Opec cut production 500,000 bls a day and with cold weather ahead not to mention hurricanes, guess what?
  16. JustWood

    JustWood Minister of Fire

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    Price was getting too close to that majical/psycological # of 100 .
  17. imacman

    imacman Guest

    Somewhat true, although not exactly accurate. This is what is happening:

    "industry sources also reported that an agreement had been made to trim over-production by 500,000 barrels per day (b.p.d.), without affecting current OPEC quotas that total nearly 30 million b.p.d. The production quotas have been exceeded in recent months – mostly by Saudi Arabia – to rein in surging prices.

    Analysts say Saudi Arabia wants the price per barrel to stabilize near $80 or $85, while Iran – which relies heavily on price fluctuations to increase revenue – wants the price to stay above $100."

    I'm not saying I agree w/ $80 or $85, but its much better than what we've seen lately.
  18. imacman

    imacman Guest

    Oil down to $96/BBL right now......I wonder what will happen the day AFTER the election???
  19. CelciusMaximus

    CelciusMaximus Member

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    just because the price per barrel drops,don't expect the price per gallon of heating oil to follow so closely.same as gasoline. there are so many variables involved

    and don't forget the good old refining logistics excuses.
  20. MCPO

    MCPO Minister of Fire

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    The election probably won`t have any effect on crude oil prices.
    Contrary to some uninformed opinions, George Bush doesn`t control the price of crude and neither will Obama or Mclain.
    But more important is the fact that our highly dissapointing US Congress seems to not want to take any kind of action to improve the energy situation .
    Nancy Pelosi`s first 100 days was a total flop and I wouldn`t expect things to improve there either.
  21. imacman

    imacman Guest

    I just thought I'd throw it out there....and i agree w/ your take on Nancy "stretch" Pelosi and the congress 1000%. They could care less about the middle class.
  22. terryjd98

    terryjd98 Member

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    Right now in Canada gas is $1.32 a liter, that equals $5.00.00 a US gallon. Diesal is at $1.22 a liter which equals $4.62 a US gallon. I still think that when cold weather gets here there will be the usual shortage of heating oil and the price will stay high. Even if heating oil goes down close to where it was last year I will still being using the new pellet stove and as little oil as I can just to see how many pellets I would use a year. 2 friends have burnt pellets for a few years now, we all have always used about the same amount of oil, they are burning about 3 tons of pellets a year and around $800.00 in oil. So thats around $1500.00 a year total. I can't remember when I have heated for $1,500.00 a year using oil, heck can't remember last time I spent $2,000.00 a year. Also with a battery back up and a small generator its going to be nice to have the option of staying warm if lose power for a few hours or more in the winter.
  23. chrisasst

    chrisasst Minister of Fire

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    hmm, oil down and my gas went back up 12 cents today!!!!!
  24. bostonbaked

    bostonbaked Member

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    I saw the same thing. Got gas in the morning paid $3.47 a gallon for regular. Went by the same place 5 hours later regular was at $3.59 a gallon. Makes no sense to me. Would you call that gouging?
  25. DiggerJim

    DiggerJim Feeling the Heat

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    Maybe it has something to do with us having 20% of the refineries in the country (including the country's largest) turned off due to Ike? Maybe because they're expected to take up to 6 weeks to get them all back online (no, you can't just walk into the control room and flip the big red "ON" switch). Maybe it's because even if the refineries were running, the pipelines don't have power so there's no crude flowing in or anything to carry the product out? Maybe it's because no one wants to drive their tanker into areas where the power lines are on the ground, water is up to their axles, and no one is home at the depot. Maybe it's because the price of crude isn't the only thing that influences the price of gas?

    Or maybe it's gouging.

    Wha'cha think?
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