Interesting article on the current weather patters and what may come for winter.

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cmonSTART

Minister of Fire
I found this interesting article on accuweather.com. Granted, some of it's a bit of speculation like any weather forecast, but it has some interesting insight into the cooler, wetter summer we've had in New England, last years winter, and what that may mean for this year's winter.

The whole article is here:
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-.../2008/08/the_strong_la_nina_domino_effect.asp

Here are some excerpts:

"A STRONG LA NINA RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN+MOISTURE LADEN SUB TROPICAL JET, FEEDS RECORD SEASONAL SNOWS ACROSS THE WEST, MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND. THEN COMES SPRING, THROW IN SOME DAYTIME HEATING, PLACE YOUR HIGH’S TO THE WEST AND TO THE EAST AND HAVE A LINGERING COLD POOL OVER THE NORTHWEST AND BANG, THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE SAME AREAS THE RECORD SNOWS WERE FROM WINTER. GET INTO SUMMER AND THOSE SATURATED SOILS KEEP THE AIR ABOVE MOIST AND THAT STRONG SOLAR ENERGY COOKS THIS ENERGY, FORCES IT TO RISE AND BINGO. THUNDERSTORMS FORM. INCIDENTLY, WEST AND EAST OF THE CORRIDOR OF RAIN, DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND STRONGER-THAN-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ACHIEVED, THEREFORE CAN LEAD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED WIND CIRCULATION INTO THE THUNDERSTORM CORRIDOR OF THE HEARTLAND."

"The faded La Nina and turn to neutral has allowed cool pools to exist throughout the 2008 summer and because of strong potential of a neutral or return to La Nina means that even last winter, will impact the upcoming winter and this may lead to last winter being a harbinger of what could be an even colder US and North America winter to come. Perhaps last winter only being a tease."

Interesting read if you're into weather and trying to look ahead to what this winter may hold for us. Keep those wood stoves burning!
 
mainemxz said:
woo hoo bring it on. Cant wait to go snowmobiling. Put on over 2000 miles last winter and didnt use the trailer once.

Ditto that! I love being able to ride right from my back yard. Trail access was a prerequiset in purchasing our house.
 
How many hurricanes did they forecast for last year ? :)
 
billb3 said:
How many hurricanes did they forecast for last year ? :)

Yeah; what Bill said!

I'll worry about it when it gets here. Bring on the hurricanes and rain and snow and heat and locust and oak and cherry!

Mebbe I'll start hunting for more wood now... :roll:

Chris
 
I remember hearing a similar post last year. Boosheet
YOu'll know exactly when winter gets here, if it ever does. ;)
 
In the spring time, they were predicting an above average temperature summer for our area. Not so. I think these guys are like economists, half say things will get better, half say worse. One way or another, half of them are right this year.
 
mainemxz said:
woo hoo bring it on. Cant wait to go snowmobiling. Put on over 2000 miles last winter and didnt use the trailer once.

Double ditto . . . last year was a good year for local riding . . . which was nice since the price of gas and oil alone was pretty steep. Riding locally was nice instead of having to trailer the sled to ride.
 
Apparently being a weather forecaster is the only job you can be 100% wrong most of the time and still not get fired for it.

You notice they never ever make appologies or admit they were wrong either......its always "oh well, the pattern changed", or "the front stalled".....never"well I guess I screwed that forecast up".
 
Anyone who has taken a real meteorology class will tell you that any forecast of greater than 24-36 hours has about a 5% chance of being accurate anyway. You just cannot predict it to that degree. There is no magic recipe for this. Enough with bashing the weather folks...
 
CTwoodburner said:
Anyone who has taken a real meteorology class will tell you that any forecast of greater than 24-36 hours has about a 5% chance of being accurate anyway. You just cannot predict it to that degree. There is no magic recipe for this.

Agreed, but the way they deliver the forcasts beyond 24-36 hr time frame is with such conviction, that you'd think they had a direct line with God.

It would just be nice to hear them admit they were wrong from time to time in the 24-36 hr window. I don't feel speaking the truth is "bashing" though.
 
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