is my thinking correct

[PutnamJct]

As nice as solid and renewable fuels are, comparing their market AND their availability to Pellets can be misleading. For ANY future length of time we are going to live in, the availablility of liquid and gas fuels is likely to be vastly more widespread (and therefore somewhat competitive) than Pellets...or even firewood for that matter.

I frequently have a similar arguement with someone who subscribes to the "Peak Oil" theory. I don't think we will run out of petroleum in our lifetime either. But it probably will never be as cheap as it was in the past.

In one of my other posts in this thread I was pointing out that the science of pricing pellets vis a vis oil/gas/etc is an unexact science at best.

 

[berlin]

"I frequently have a similar arguement with someone who subscribes to the “Peak Oil” theory. I don’t think we will run out of petroleum in our lifetime either. But it probably will never be as cheap as it was in the past."

The notion that we will run out of petrolium in our lifetime or our great-grandchildren's is rediculas. We have conventional reserves as well as oil shales which, btw, there is enough recoverable oil in to equal all the oil that ever existed in conventional reserves, the best part is that the USA has 3/4 of the worlds oil shale. Coal liquification is an aditional very promising source of liquid fuels, after all we have 1/3 of the worlds coal. algae farms using co2 produced from coal-fired powerplants to rapidly grow algae that produces tremendous amounts of oil which diesel can be produced from is being put into operation right now. The only reason much of these alternative oil sources are not being exploited currently is simply because investers remember the getting burned badly after the alternative source investing spree they went on in the seventies. production from these sources will happend after investors are assured of higher oil prices for years to come. at $35/barrel coal liquification becomes economical and at $50/barrel oil shale exploitation becomes economical. So there will be oil and hydrocarbon fuels for centuries to come, however it will not be at prices seen in the 90's. well, i'm done hijacking this thread.

 

[Sandor]

Put,

this is the exact reason why I think it is not wise to install oil/gas auxilliary heating. The future for gas does not look good either.

As nice as solid and renewable fuels are, comparing their market AND their availability to Pellets can be misleading. For ANY future length of time we are going to live in, the availablility of liquid and gas fuels is likely to be vastly more widespread (and therefore somewhat competitive) than Pellets...or even firewood for that matter.

Not trying to talk anyone in or out of anything - but thinking that Pellets are going to be subject to the same market forces that oil and gas are seems wrong. When there are thousands of pellet plants then it might be different. As for now, since Pellet fuel has nothing (in the corporate sense) to do with Pellet Stoves, as long as people are willing to pay a certain price for pellets, they will fetch that price. This is not the same as the international energy markets!

People get mad at me for predicting that - YES, my children will be flying on boeing and airbus planes to come see my funeral. Sure, we will have shocks and temp glitches, but we are not going to run out of fuels to fly airplanes nor heat houses.

The very first thing that must be pointed out about Peak Oil is that oil WILL NEVER RUN OUT.

Thats a given. The issue is, is that demand will surpass production capability.

Anybody that thinks that Natural Gas or Oil will always be available has simply not done the research.

The issue will become whether people have the money to heat with oil or natural gas.

Pellet available will increase along with demand.

Sticking your head in the sand can provide brief relief.