NOAA’s Winter Outlook

thewoodlands Posted By thewoodlands, Oct 20, 2011 at 5:04 PM

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  1. muncybob

    muncybob
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Apr 8, 2008
    2,106
    279
    Loc:
    Near Williamsport, PA
    Looks about "average" for us, whatever that is.
     
  2. thewoodlands

    thewoodlands
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Aug 25, 2009
    10,825
    2,930
    By this, it looks like I'll be cutting or milling well in to Feb. if they are correct.


    zap
     
  3. muncybob

    muncybob
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Apr 8, 2008
    2,106
    279
    Loc:
    Near Williamsport, PA
    Other than the rain, we can't complain about the temps here. I just harvested the last of my green beans and ever bearing strawberries. Next is the yams if I can find the time to dig em up.
     
  4. thewoodlands

    thewoodlands
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Aug 25, 2009
    10,825
    2,930
    Speaking of rain, the sky just opened up and she is coming down hard, guess we made a good choice pushing in some wood last night.

    We should be good through next week for wood depending on the weather.

    zap
     
  5. colebrookman

    colebrookman
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Feb 7, 2008
    776
    0
    Loc:
    Middlefield, Ma
    I'm hooking up the snowblower at the first hint of snow. Last year we had so much snow, for us, that I had to keep moving it to make plow room. This year I'll start right off with the big gun and maybe that will scare the snow away. Be safe. Ed
     
  6. billb3

    billb3
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Dec 14, 2007
    4,316
    601
    Loc:
    SE Mass
    Looks like its going to be either a little colder or a little warmer than usual or maybe just the same and a little bit wetter or a little bit dryer than usual or maybe the same , here.
    WTF.


    I wonder if they do odds on the World Series.
     
  7. daveswoodhauler

    daveswoodhauler
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    May 20, 2008
    1,847
    96
    Loc:
    Massachusetts
    LOL, I was thinking the same thing....thanks for the chuckle Bill
     
  8. pen

    pen
    There are some who call me...mod. 2.
    NULL
    
    Staff Member

    Aug 2, 2007
    7,729
    1,524
    Loc:
    N.E. Penna
    Lot of uncertainty with these.

    Below was one long range forecast for the summer of 2011. Note the average rainfall forecast for NorthEast Pa. I think we stand at 20 some inches above normal and broke the record for the wettest year on record Sept 29.

    pen
     

    Attached Files:

  9. colebrookman

    colebrookman
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Feb 7, 2008
    776
    0
    Loc:
    Middlefield, Ma
    Bill you sound like our morning weatherman with his seven day forecast. If you ever need to change careers..... Be safe.
    Ed
     
  10. begreen

    begreen
    Mooderator 2.
    NULL
    
    Staff Member

    Nov 18, 2005
    61,044
    7,754
    Loc:
    South Puget Sound, WA
    I weally think the winter weather will be wild and wacky wight here in Washington.

     
  11. xman23

    xman23
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Oct 7, 2008
    1,320
    231
    Loc:
    Lackawaxen PA
    Is NOAA long range prediction's any better than the farmers almanac?
     
  12. thewoodlands

    thewoodlands
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Aug 25, 2009
    10,825
    2,930


    This is better.

    zap
     
  13. NH_Wood

    NH_Wood
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Dec 24, 2009
    2,602
    292
    Loc:
    southern NH
    By a long shot! Cheers!
     
  14. smokinj

    smokinj
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Aug 11, 2008
    15,981
    1,412
    Loc:
    Anderson, Indiana
    They are accurate to about 60 day trends.
     
  15. Kenster

    Kenster
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Jan 10, 2010
    1,701
    126
    Loc:
    Texas- West of Houston
    What kind of crack were these guys smoking when they made this prediction? Above Average Precipitation for most of Texas? Yet here we are in the middle of the worst drought in over 100 years.
     
  16. smokinj

    smokinj
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Aug 11, 2008
    15,981
    1,412
    Loc:
    Anderson, Indiana
    Here is what there saying.
     

    Attached Files:

  17. Gasifier

    Gasifier
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Apr 25, 2011
    3,152
    793
    Loc:
    St. Lawrence River Valley, N.Y.
    I like this line ZAP.

    NOAA has given the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic an equal chance of seeing below, above or near-average temperatures and precipitation this winter.

    Talk about making sure you are successfull at your job. Got pretty much everything covered there.

    I just finished getting all the wood in under the covered porch today. In between the rain that is. It never fails. Have it out to dry all those months and it rains on it right before you put it under cover for the winter.
     
  18. thewoodlands

    thewoodlands
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Aug 25, 2009
    10,825
    2,930
    That is putting your neck on the line. The rain never stops in the northeast, we have some wood (quaking aspen) that has been inside over a week that is still a little damp in behind the bark. It seems out of five splits one will be damp behind the bark, but it is burning fine.


    zap
     
  19. mayhem

    mayhem
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    May 8, 2007
    1,938
    4
    Loc:
    Peru, MA
    So if I read that right, it looks like its probably going to get colder for the next few months and it'll snow here and there. The places that are typically pretty dry look like they're saying won't get much precipitation, but the places that tend to be wetter will get precipitation.

    I hear it will also get dark outside EVERY SINGLE NIGHT TILL DAYBREAK!
     
  20. snowleopard

    snowleopard
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Dec 9, 2009
    1,495
    2
    I like: "equal chances of above, near, or below-average precipitation".

    Six months later:
    "See, I told ya!"
     
  21. Backwoods Savage

    Backwoods Savage
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Feb 14, 2007
    27,815
    7,367
    Loc:
    Michigan
    Our prediction is for temperatures to continue their downward trend until the end of January and the begin a slow trend of rising temperatures. During this period of time we will have shorter and shorter daylight hours until just before Christmas and then the daylight hours will slowly increase until late in June. The percipitation will slowly change from just wet raindrops to albino rain and on occasion we will have need to move some of that white stuff around in order to be able to drive our vehicles. I'll continue to push snow around for us and the neighbors. Some will donate a few dollars and others will give thanks while at least one will say nothing.

    It is bound to be a difficult winter because certain folks have very large wood piles. This means I'll have to be out there cutting more this winter in order that we don't run out too soon. It is also predicted that many people will be spending the longer dark hours staring at their stoves and enjoying the heat and the fire show. This will do nothing but help the family situation which has been deterorating for too long. It will also cause some fathers to allow (or force) their sons into helping with the putting up of wood.

    When spring comes, many will once more start putting up wood for the following year while the Backwoods Savage will set aside more time for things other than wood cutting because he has been out there freezing his fingers all winter and wants to forget that part for another few months.
     
  22. Gasifier

    Gasifier
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Apr 25, 2011
    3,152
    793
    Loc:
    St. Lawrence River Valley, N.Y.
    That is putting your neck on the line. The rain never stops in the northeast, we have some wood (quaking aspen) that has been inside over a week that is still a little damp in behind the bark. It seems out of five splits one will be damp behind the bark, but it is burning fine.

    Oh, that is not the wood I will be burning for the next few months. That has been under the porch for a long time. The wood I am burning now and should last me another month has been drying for over a year and has been under my porch since late last fall. I have a couple face cord of that left. When that is gone I will move to the ash that was brought in last week. Then I will move to the ash that I just brought in. A little pine and elm mixed in the last lot. Most of this has had a cover of clear plastic over it since last spring, over the top of the stack. Some since June. It is all under the porch now, and will be keeping us warm. Now I have to get to work on next years Ash. I wish it was a little colder weather to work on that though. At least all the bugs are gone. One week from today I have a long weekend off. That is going to be some cutting days. Do you have your wood for next year cut yet?
     
  23. thewoodlands

    thewoodlands
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Aug 25, 2009
    10,825
    2,930

    4 to 5 years ahead at this moment depending on how the winter goes, looking at another three cord before the end of December, if not more.



    zap
     
  24. Delta-T

    Delta-T
    Minister of Fire 2.
    NULL
    

    Feb 27, 2008
    3,144
    579
    Loc:
    NH
    its gonna be fairly nice in Aruba....kinda dry, little breezy, about 82F.....for about the next 365 days.
     
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