Let me preceed this rant with: This is just my opinion.
Tell the dude at Lowe's to get a job in the stock market, cause he doesn't know crap about the pellet business. If anything thing the price will remain the same, or even go down. To Lowe's, HomeDepot. Walmart and many other retailers, pellets are "seasonal" merchandise. They earn their inventory spot based on sales volume. As far as most manufacturers are concerned, they buying season is over. Both wholesale and retail. What they are dealing with now is retained inventory. They can hope that bad weather will result in some extra sales, but they are now thinking, "how long can we hold on before we need the space?". The BBG's and garden hose orders are coming in, and we need the space. They are not interested in carrying the inventory over.
That said it doesn't mean they are at cost or to be sold at a loss, it means they won't try to wring a few extra bucks by bumping the price because oil is going up. That would be the best way to kill the future business. Locally I have seen the price vary a few dollars per bag, but no radical moves up or down. Until yesterday. A major local maker/wholesaler/retailer just dropped is prices for the first time since June last Summer. He held his prices for his retailers to be competitive, but I suspect he has filled his delivery orders still outstanding and has no big movement planned and is looking at a yard full of pallets. I don't know for sure, but I will check in the next few days. My supplier has dropped the price about 15% since the season began, but has only one pellet brand available, happens to be one I like, but I just got a coupon for 20% off.
All you East Coasters sit down and put the coffee down, too, but I can get them for about $160 a pallet. That's for their unusual load of 52 bags, or $3.07 per bag. That is below what I can pick them up at from the Plant seventy miles away. It is possible the price could drop, but it is unlikely. At the same time a few retailers are still holding to their $5.99 per bag, But their stock is sitting for the most part. The demand is not their to sustain the price, and frankly I don't know what their thinking is.
This time of year, the last few years there was some scrambling for end of season supplies, but generally there is a good supply of pellets. We have four major suppliers in the Rockies coming on line right now. The pine bark beetle infestation has made the raw materials so available, that it is possible the Forest Service will pay a bounty to remove the standing dead (MY speculations only). Without a radical change in the economy things are pretty stagnant for prices. Remember two years ago the big jump in price was the cost of fuel and shipping. With so many local plants available, shipping is less of an issue. Pellets moving from British Columbia to South Carolina is just not going to happen, so you down easters may not get a chance to try Rocky Mountains, Bear Creeks or Western Lignetics, unless you bring some home on your vacation.
For those trapped by local dealers gouging, take down their names and plan to go to their closing business sales. It is real easy to rent or buy a small utility trailer and haul from 100 miles away and come out just fine.
So for the Marketing guru at Lowe's, invest in Countrywide mortgages, after all they are insured and everyone needs to live somewhere.
