Some Disturbing Climate Trends

[semipro]

The chart showing ocean temps at the link below is scary and probably the primary reason we're seeing sea level rises exceeding most predictions.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/17/world/four-climate-charts-extreme-weather-heat-oceans/index.html

 

[SpaceBus]

I was reading this at lunch and didn't have time to reply. I think the unexpectedly high sea level rise is related to pumping out ground water which just ends up back in the ocean in most cases. There was a recent scholarly article about a shift in the earth's relative position due to altering the weight distribution from pumped ground water.

Not the place I read this first, but still reputable

 

[tlc1976]

I was reading this at lunch and didn't have time to reply. I think the unexpectedly high sea level rise is related to pumping out ground water which just ends up back in the ocean in most cases. There was a recent scholarly article about a shift in the earth's relative position due to altering the weight distribution from pumped ground water.

Not the place I read this first, but still reputable

I’ve read in many instances where land actually sinks due to water being pumped out of the ground. So it can be a double whammy.

I also wonder how much the ocean volume expands due to temperature rise alone, not even taking into account melting ice. I think it’s something like 0.1% per degree C, but the ocean is massive and even a small percent can have a considerable effect on us.

 

[KDubU]

Yeah the ocean temps especially up in the North Atlantic is crazy. What most people do not realize and will only complain out is some of the impacts, e.g. higher seafood prices. This is going to impact many ocean species that are on people’s dinner tables but many don’t care that oceans temps are ever increasing. I bet many think, great I get more swim time as the water will be warmer. Then there are all the mammals who depend on the ocean temps remaining in a certain range, eg whales, polar bears, etc.

It’s all a matter of time and the impacts will be felt worldwide but my fear is it will be too late then.

 

[SpaceBus]

I’ve read in many instances where land actually sinks due to water being pumped out of the ground. So it can be a double whammy.

I also wonder how much the ocean volume expands due to temperature rise alone, not even taking into account melting ice. I think it’s something like 0.1% per degree C, but the ocean is massive and even a small percent can have a considerable effect on us.

No doubt the increase in temp also matters. The ground water pumping can lead to subsidence (sinking), and is the cause of the giant sink holes in FL.

 

[semipro]

NOAA says here
"The two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal expansion caused by warming of the ocean (since water expands as it warms) and increased melting of land-based ice, such as glaciers and ice sheets. The ocean is absorbing more than 90 percent of the increased atmospheric heat associated with emissions from human activity."
I was unaware until recently that thermal expansion was a primary cause.
Things are getting interesting. What with elevated sea levels, land subsidence, and increased storm activity, I don't think I'd want to live near the coast.
I'm starting to feel like we've really screwed over our children.

 

[EbS-P]

NOAA says here
"The two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal expansion caused by warming of the ocean (since water expands as it warms) and increased melting of land-based ice, such as glaciers and ice sheets. The ocean is absorbing more than 90 percent of the increased atmospheric heat associated with emissions from human activity."
I was unaware until recently that thermal expansion was a primary cause.
Things are getting interesting. What with elevated sea levels, land subsidence, and increased storm activity, I don't think I'd want to live near the coast.
I'm starting to feel like we've really screwed over our children.

There is A LOT of water in the oceans. We have Cape Verde storms in June. Completely unheard of.

Another graph. I live in Wilmington NC.

https://19january2021snapshot.epa.gov/sites/static/files/2016-08/documents/print_coastal-flooding-2016_0.pdf

 

[blades]

Before you start blaming man- better start educating your self on the earth temp cycles , Sun temp cycles and the earths orbit vs sun location. Various radiation emitted by the sun. Moons orbit around earth. all of these and others we likely don't know about have an effect. Man as a whole is less than .0001% of the equation. One Volcano event places more into the atmosphere than mans entire history. One under sea volcano event can change Ocean currents , which has already happened recently. Change in ocean currents is primary drive force for weather patterns and also is affecting the polar caps. Moon's orbit affects weather cycles and the earth orbit has changed a bit as well as tilt. Some where I also read there has been a very slight change in the earths rotational speed.
Just for grins, in the late 50's and 60's we were all going freeze to death ( I remember those doomsday stories very well). Some this of course was driven by the Nuclear energy spins at the time. So as with anything the talking heads come up with take it with a very large grain of Salt, but please do not blame it only on the activities of man. It is much more complex than that simplistic view.

 

[woodgeek]

Just for grins, in the late 50's and 60's we were all going freeze to death ( I remember those doomsday stories very well). Some this of course was driven by the Nuclear energy spins at the time. So as with anything the talking heads come up with take it with a very large grain of Salt, but please do not blame it only on the activities of man. It is much more complex than that simplistic view.

This misses the point. The whole 'we used to predict an Ice Age' thing is often presented as if 'Those goofy scientists can't get anything right!' or even 'What will they predict next year?!?' or just 'for grins'.

In fact, the climate models that accurately predict the temperature anomaly for the last 100,000 years DO in fact predict we should be in a cool period now (thus the predictions of a cold climate in the present are **still correct** 50 years later). The model works great up until the last few thousand years, and is esp out of whack during the industrial era.

The predictions of a cold climate in the 70s actually underscores the amount of human-caused warming, and says that it is not limited to the last few decades, but something we humans have been doing for much longer than that via land use and agriculture.

 

[semipro]

Just for grins, in the late 50's and 60's we were all going freeze to death ( I remember those doomsday stories very well). Some this of course was driven by the Nuclear energy spins at the time. So as with anything the talking heads come up with take it with a very large grain of Salt, but please do not blame it only on the activities of man. It is much more complex than that simplistic view.

These 60's?
From President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1965:
"Air pollution is no longer confined to isolated places, this generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through radioactive materials and a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels."
(source here)

 

[Ashful]

I’ve read in many instances where land actually sinks due to water being pumped out of the ground. So it can be a double whammy.

Good post, but to add to what you said ("triple whammy"?), a primary mechanism driving apparent sea level rise on our own mid-Atlantic coast is the stalling of the gulf stream. Essentially, the mid-Atlantic east coast of the US has been sinking for eons, but always replenished by silt brough up the coast from the Carolinas and Outer Banks. The stalling of the gulf stream has diminished how much of this silt is dredged up and deposited in New Jersey and New York, causing an apparent drop in the coastal plane.

The stalling of the gulf stream is caused by global warming, no matter who or what you blame as the cause of that warming, and has been predicted for decades.

Getting back to the OP, I wish that graph showed the years for the several highest temperatures, not just 2022 and 2023. If all of those gray lines at the top are clustered during some random warm spell in the mid-1950's, that tells a very different story than if they're all in the last ten years. Drawing any conclusion from this data alone could be very misleading, which sadly is often the intent of the person or group creating such incompletely-labeled graphs.

 

[semipro]

Before you start blaming man- better start educating your self on the earth temp cycles , Sun temp cycles and the earths orbit vs sun location. Various radiation emitted by the sun. Moons orbit around earth. all of these and others we likely don't know about have an effect. Man as a whole is less than .0001% of the equation. One Volcano event places more into the atmosphere than mans entire history. One under sea volcano event can change Ocean currents , which has already happened recently. Change in ocean currents is primary drive force for weather patterns and also is affecting the polar caps. Moon's orbit affects weather cycles and the earth orbit has changed a bit as well as tilt. Some where I also read there has been a very slight change in the earths rotational speed.

I tend to educate myself using reliable sources like NASA. NASA seems to have taken those other factors into consideration.

"Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of the last ice age about 11,700 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to (broken link removed) that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives."

"While Earth’s climate has changed throughout its history, the current warming is happening at a rate not seen in the past 10,000 years."
-- NASA

 

[Ashful]

I tend to educate myself using reliable sources like NASA. NASA seems to have taken those other factors into consideration.

"Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of the last ice age about 11,700 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to (broken link removed) that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives."

"While Earth’s climate has changed throughout its history, the current warming is happening at a rate not seen in the past 10,000 years."
-- NASA

Do note that the time-resolution of the data used to generate this graph may not be able to show spikes of similar magnitude, if they were brief enough. Put otherwise, if each data point in this historic scale represents 1000 years (100 points per division). spikes such as the one which represents that last 70 years would completely disappear in the averaging. Again, a pretty picture which can cause concern among those who don't really understand what the data represents.

 

[SpaceBus]

This misses the point. The whole 'we used to predict an Ice Age' thing is often presented as if 'Those goofy scientists can't get anything right!' or even 'What will they predict next year?!?' or just 'for grins'.

In fact, the climate models that accurately predict the temperature anomaly for the last 100,000 years DO in fact predict we should be in a cool period now (thus the predictions of a cold climate in the present are **still correct** 50 years later). The model works great up until the last few thousand years, and is esp out of whack during the industrial era.

The predictions of a cold climate in the 70s actually underscores the amount of human-caused warming, and says that it is not limited to the last few decades, but something we humans have been doing for much longer than that via land use and agriculture.

This is just my theory, but I think the last glacial maximum ended BECAUSE of humans drastically altering the climate through land use change and agriculture. There is evidence that the Sahara and the Arabian peninsula were at one point lush forested regions prior to humans changing the environment. Maybe places like the Gobi and Atacama deserts were also significantly different prior to agriculture. I base my theory on the scholarly articles and data I've seen while I'm working on my animal science undergrad. There are many religious stories about an ancient flood. I suspect they are about the flooding of the Mediterranean basin when sea levels rose above the straight of Gibraltar. Sea level rise caused by melting glaciers.

 

[Ashful]

This is just my theory, but I think the last glacial maximum ended BECAUSE of humans drastically altering the climate through land use change and agriculture.

Is the theory that the predicted ice age, in which we may be presently residing, is actually tempering what otherwise might be even more severe warming trends?

 

[SpaceBus]

Is the theory that the predicted ice age, in which we may be presently residing, is actually tempering what otherwise might be even more severe warming trends?

Yes, we are effectively postponing an ice age that would otherwise be coming. At least that's the theory.

 

[semipro]

I was reading this at lunch and didn't have time to reply. I think the unexpectedly high sea level rise is related to pumping out ground water which just ends up back in the ocean in most cases. There was a recent scholarly article about a shift in the earth's relative position due to altering the weight distribution from pumped ground water.

Not the place I read this first, but still reputable

Wow! I just visited the link.
So groundwater pumping is apparently responsible for a shift of the earth's rotational axis. I had no idea.

 

[woodgeek]

Wow! I just visited the link.
So groundwater pumping is apparently responsible for a shift of the earth's rotational axis. I had no idea.

This shift of the pole is completely non-controversial. Note the displacement of the pole, which is measured in feet. The reason why it is still being studied is that groundwater extraction is harder to measure. There are bigger signals shifting the pole from damming rivers and filling reservoirs. The Soviets did a chit-ton of that in the mid-20th century, and moved the pole more than 20 ft IIRC.

 

[EbS-P]

This shift of the pole is completely non-controversial. Note the displacement of the pole, which is measured in feet. The reason why it is still being studied is that groundwater extraction is harder to measure. There are bigger signals shifting the pole from damming rivers and filling reservoirs. The Soviets did a chit-ton of that in the mid-20th century, and moved the pole more than 20 ft IIRC.

And I imagine the natural processes (that move contents, movements of molten magma ect) would have larger effects. But I could be wrong and have no sources.

 

[SpaceBus]

Wow! I just visited the link.
So groundwater pumping is apparently responsible for a shift of the earth's rotational axis. I had no idea.

I don't think it's the sole culprit, but it's not helping. The pole would be shifting regardless, but we are giving it a hard nudge.

 

[begreen]

I don't think it's the sole culprit, but it's not helping. The pole would be shifting regardless, but we are giving it a hard nudge.

Agreed. Human activities are unbalancing massive systems on a global scale. Like a giant flywheel, it will take a long time to wind down from this, probably centuries.

 

[woodgeek]

I really don't see any human impacts from moving the pole a few meters or tens of meters. Its weird to think about, but that's it. Your lat and longitude change a little. Unless you are a radio astronomer measuring the distance to a Mars or a faraway spacecraft.... Yawn.

 

[SpaceBus]

I really don't see any human impacts from moving the pole a few meters or tens of meters. Its weird to think about, but that's it. Your lat and longitude change a little. Unless you are a radio astronomer measuring the distance to a Mars or a faraway spacecraft.... Yawn.

Shifts in the earth's relative position do have climate effects and can be a positive or negative forcing.

 

[Ashful]

Shifts in the earth's relative position do have climate effects and can be a positive or negative forcing.

Shifts of a few meters on a 40,000 km circumference? Let's say it's the 20 ft that woodgeek had referenced earlier. That's a 0.05 degree tilt in the magnetic polar axis.

 

[SpaceBus]

Shifts of a few meters on a 40,000 km circumference? Let's say it's the 20 ft that woodgeek had referenced earlier. That's a 0.05 degree tilt in the magnetic polar axis.

Yes, that one thing is small, but we are talking about a death by a thousand cuts, not a quick decapitation. You also have to consider that the geographic poles have shifted a relatively large amount in the last few decades. Like how the climate is always in flux, but we are pushing it even harder.