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Who's using all the heating oil?

Post in 'The Green Room' started by begreen, Aug 20, 2010.

  1. nate379

    nate379 Guest

    Or get something that is decent on mileage. On a 55 gal drum of fuel my car will go close to 3000 miles.

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  2. Dune

    Dune Minister of Fire

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    Look at the bell curve a few posts back. The Price increase bell will look similar. Prices will not decrease untill all the oil consumption has been replaced by a cheaper alternative. This process will take decades, especially considering the delayed start caused by decades of opposition, some of which is still ongoing and intense.

    Don't forget, we are still on the peak plateau meaning we are still producing enough. Additionaly the oil prices are being held down voluntarily by the oil companies, in order to promote continued consumption. We don't know where we will pass peak. Now or very soon is certainly the time to reduce personal dependence as far as possible, preferably completely. Hybrids or very high milage vehicles still leave one vulnerable to price increases. Electric cars and Home Solar-electric or residential Co-Gen systems insulate their owners as well as speed up the process of replacing oil consumption.
  3. Slow1

    Slow1 Minister of Fire

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    So what you are saying is that consumers will decrease their consumption if the prices go up so the oil companies are not willing to raise prices? Hmmm... so this would seem to imply that if/when the prices do go up (for whatever reason - let's take a shortage of supply as our reason for now) then demand will fall right? I believe that many folks consider this flexibility of demand to be a natural control mechanism on the markets.

    Look I'm not arguing against any of the 'facts' about oil supplies (I have insufficient time/ability to properly evaluate the evidence presented) but I am a believer in some of the basics of supply/demand market economics when it comes to commodity pricing. There are alternatives and I believe as time goes on people will move to them - what I don't buy is that in the next 5 years there is going to be some massive drop-off where in 12 months time everyone driving a car will have to permanently park it because there isn't enough oil available to refine and make fuel.

    Prices will go up - and I agree it will likely be far more than many folks will like. But as it does this people WILL find alternatives and that will help temper demand and supplies will be extended a bit more - as price goes up, more difficult to mine/drill reserves will become profitable to go after as well thus increasing the supply a bit more. All the while other energy sources will become (relatively) more attractive and conservation (gasp) may well become in vogue. TCO calculations that individuals do may start to include energy costs - what a good idea in my opinion.
  4. Dune

    Dune Minister of Fire

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    Yeah, that is what just happened. When the price of gas reached about four bucks a gallon, the public stopped driving as often. The volume of gas sold lessened, they adjusted the pirce down acordingly. If we were not in the throws of a massive recession, the price would be higher, because now, people have to chose between fuel, food or whatever. At the lower price, more can aford both.

    The problem is, like I said earlier, we still produce enough to meet the worlds needs. When there is not enough, the prices will be less constrained. For those who need to drive, or need oil heat , or need for, mostly transported by oil, or anything manufactured, again using oil, all costs will skyrocket. Being prepared by needing much less of the products of the oil economy will enable those so prepared to weather the finacial storm better.

    The problem with "people will find alternatives" is that there needs to be viable alternatives. There are very few electric vehicles to choose from, at present. Their are many people for whom there is no aproprite, practical choice at the moment. The market is a good fifteen years behind. Research the Toyota Raj EJ for an example.
  5. btuser

    btuser Minister of Fire

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    The first time peak oil ever made the papers it was the 1850s.
  6. rowerwet

    rowerwet Minister of Fire

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    while we will still have some uses for oil it will end up like coal, once we get to usable fusion tech it won't take long for dooms dayers to predict the end of it as well, then we will hear the "peak dilithium crystal" is around the corner.
    Oil energy had allowed the middle class to become the largest in history, those who want to end it seem to also be on the side of those who are squeezing the middle class, oil production in the US has been cut by politicians not by a lack of it. There have been huge oil finds in recent history, do a little googling, don't trust the peak oil preachers, or the carbon myth preachers. Seems like they didn't make enough bucks off the same scare tactics back in the 60's and 70's.
  7. Seasoned Oak

    Seasoned Oak Minister of Fire

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  8. GlennMike

    GlennMike New Member

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    Guess what? The boy who cried wolf eventually met the wolf.

    Wow the level of ignorance about this subject matter is amazing. The information on what is coming is available to all that want to search for it. Start out by watching the video linked below.

    For the poster who said the Peak oil "aware" are all about making money. Do you really think this guy is in it for the money? watch the video




  9. begreen

    begreen Mooderator Staff Member

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    Thanks for posting and thank you Dr. Bartlett. I've posted this lecture a couple of times to help folks look at the relationship to growth and consumption.
  10. North of 60

    North of 60 Minister of Fire

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    OK so now what are you going to do about the sky that is falling?
    Please forgive me as I am ignorant.
  11. Seasoned Oak

    Seasoned Oak Minister of Fire

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    Iv replaced my use of heatiing oil about 8 years ago, my problem now is Transportation fuel, Problem is there there are painfully few alternatives. Most people can not afford the new electric cars now becoming available. I think the answer for most americans is conversion of existing cars and trucks to electric or NG. THere are so many ways to generate electricity but only one way to generate crude oil. Instead of our Govt giving $7500 tax credits for people to buy 100% imported electric nissan leaf cars they would be better served using that money to convert existing cars and trucks to electric or NG using american parts and lobor,(god knows we need the work) I dont think we have the luxury of a lot of time.
  12. Dune

    Dune Minister of Fire

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  13. Dune

    Dune Minister of Fire

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  14. ChillyGator

    ChillyGator New Member

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    FFT: The USA will never drill it's way to energy independence, we use too much for that, but technology keeps moving into the future..........

    N.D. boom sets new production records (10/07/2010)
    North Dakota's oil boom has drawn 148 rigs to the state, matching a previous rig record set by drillers three decades ago, according to state officials.

    "I've been watching it and watching it every day but I really didn't think we'd get there until the end of the year," said Lynn Helms, director of the state Department of Mineral Resources. "I'm pleasantly surprised."

    North Dakota produced a record 9.9 million barrels of oil in July, up from the previous record of 9.4 million barrels set in June, according to the most recent data available. North Dakota's oil production in August would be about 10.5 million barrels.

    The state's natural gas production, meanwhile, was pegged at a record 9.9 million cubic feet for July, up from 9 million cubic feet in June.

    Nearly all the rigs are drilling in the rich Bakken Shale and Three Forks-Sanish oil reservoirs in western North Dakota.

    The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated that up to 4.3 billion barrels of oil could be recovered from the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana using current technology. Modern drill rigs that use advanced horizontal drilling techniques are four to eight times more efficient than rigs that drilled vertical wells in the 1980s (AP/Billings Gazette, Oct. 5).
  15. Seasoned Oak

    Seasoned Oak Minister of Fire

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  16. Dune

    Dune Minister of Fire

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    http://www.diyelectriccar.com/

    These guys can help. 15 miles is not even a reasonable goal these days. There was a service truck in the sixties that weighed 8000# and had a fifty mile range on lead-acid batteries. Trucks are ideal conversions for lead acid, since they can take the weight and the batteries can be hidden under the bed, and of course in the mostly empty engine compartment. Most converters use Ford rangers and get much better range.

    Of course lighter, more powerful batteries are available these days, but for a higher price.
  17. Seasoned Oak

    Seasoned Oak Minister of Fire

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    =============
    Razer Industries
    http://www.rasertech.com/media/videos/the-electric-h3
    They claim to have a 100MPG or 40 Miles all electric range, from a hummer conversion. THeres a former gas guzzler truck that is greener than a prius. They could do a bang up job on a HD pickup truck. I may change to a HD diesel truck in the near future and take advantage of Bio-fuels and better MPG. Saw a spot on the green channel with this guy had a wood gasification boiler on the back of his truck,and set up his engine to run on wood gas ,drove all across london on 1 load of wood, craziest thing io ever saw,but it worked.
  18. Dune

    Dune Minister of Fire

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    Put the gassifier at your house instead of the truck, heat your house from the waste heat of generating electricity with the gassifier, charge your electric truck and car for free and have no energy bills
  19. Fat Charlie

    Fat Charlie New Member

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    Peak oil is a theory, just like evolution and gravity. Theories that are accepted as facts because they work. I've got a one and a half year old kid who has figured out gravity, and there are millions of "creation science" fans own various breeds of dogs. One of those groups can barely demand "juice," but knows that when he lets go of something it's going to hit the floor. The other group denies that evolution applies to the animal that they are, but chooses house pets based on traits selected by breeders. People who depend on oil can join the realistic toddler who accepts what is plainly in front of him or join the fantastic delusionals who want to believe their way through life.

    My house and cars burn oil. It came from dinosaurs and the forests and swamps that they lived in. Since we're not slaughtering dinosaurs for fuel or delivering peat bogs to refineries, it makes sense to treat petroleum as a finite resource. Just as my youngest doesn't understand the mathematical fine points of gravity and christian fundamentalists don't understand that their doggies' attributes were created by generations of breeders, I don't have to do a thorough investigation to determine whether or not we've arrived at oil's production peak. It simply takes a little sense to know that we will get there.

    I'm not saying that oil isn't the best fuel for any particular application. It's a great fuel and I'm a big fan of it. I'm watching the race at Suzuka tomorrow, and my little boy loves his toy race cars. But we don't have any more dinosaurs in the pipeline, so to speak. So while we're probably not at Peak Oil right now, we're going to get there. And China and India are just getting started on consumption. And Indonesia may or may not be a member of OPEC on the day you read this, because their production may or may not be greater than their consumption on any particular day.

    Efficiency is a good thing to look at, is all I'm saying. My house has oil heat, but I got an efficient backup diesel generator. I'll be adding solar DHW and hooking in the diesel as a co-gen system. No, there's nothing altruistic here, I'm just trying to reduce my expousure to the fact that oil is getting scarcer. That's the point of Peak Oil- that we're burning oil faster than the Earth is producing it. Sure, there's oil down there that we haven't found yet. Sure, there's oil we've found that doesn't make financial sense to extract at today's prices. The supply will continue, but demand is increasing and the amount of dead dinosaurs isn't. More dead dinosaurs will be financially viable to access as oil prices rise, but dinosaur production ended a long time ago. If you can, reduce your exposure to the reduction in supply.
  20. jharkin

    jharkin Minister of Fire

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    First off Charlie I think you misinterpret what peak oil is. Peak Oil is NOT running out of oil. Peak Oil is the point at which the extraction rate from the ground reaches its peak. Basically the theory says that when approximately half of the stuff in the ground has been extracted the rate peaks and then declines. So over time production rate follows a bell curve.

    The problem is that population and the economy continues to grow so demand just continues to go up indefinitely. So its inevitable that if we don't develop alternatives fast enough that demand will eventually outstrip supply and lead to price spikes and limits on economic growth.

    I would argue that peak oil shouldn't even be labeled a theory. Its been proven in many individual counties (USA peaked in 1971, Alaska peaked in the 80s, North Sea peaked in the 90s, Mexico a few years ago I think. Just google it). Its just a fact of physics that any non-renewing resource (and oil is for practical purposes non-renewable in human lifetimes as it takes millions of years to form) cannot keep increasing production indefinitely.

    The most significant criticism of the theory is the claim that unconventional sources like shale and tar sands will extend production and stave off the peak. Those claims ignore the reality that whereas conventional oil as a production ratio of 20-1 or 30-1 (down from 100-1 in the early days, these unconventional sources have ratios as low as 5-1 or 3-1. That's how much of the energy recovered is burned up in production. If oil pumped from a Saudi well at 30-1 costs $80 a barrel, how much do you think 3-1 tar sands oil will cost? See why this is such a serious problem yet?


    Its not surprising that most average folks don't believe this. The mainstream media and governments don't talk about it openly for obvious reasons - admitting this is real and how close we are would lead to a general panic and stock market crash that would paralyze society and prevent any effort to adapt. OTOH, I dont think anyone in power is actually making any realistic attempt to deal with it so long as there is so much money to be made by corporate interests in continuing things the way they are.



    If you don't want to look it up...


    US oil production over time. First peak in the 70s is lower 48 production peak. The sub peak in the 80s is when Alaska started to slow. See its been all downhill since.
    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS1&f=A

    The Hirsch Report to Congress
    http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/oil_peaking_netl.pdf

    US Military 2010 operating environment report. Read pages 24 to 28. The Pentagon believes in Peak Oil...
    http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf

    So does the German Bundeswher
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,715138,00.html

    And the Government and a number of big companies in Britain
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/128dcc6a-95c6-11df-b5ad-00144feab49a.html
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-within-five-years-Richard-Branson-warns.html

    Lloyds of London believes in Peak oil, warned of $200/barrel likely in 3 years
    http://www.triplepundit.com/2010/07/lloyds-of-london-warns-about-peaking-oil-energy-price-jump/
  21. jharkin

    jharkin Minister of Fire

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    The bigger problem is that electric cars solve NOTHING so long as 90% of our electricity comes from the same declining fossil fuels.

    The only real solution is a massive nuclear power program (thorium breeders anyone?) But nobody has the stomach for it...
  22. Dune

    Dune Minister of Fire

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    Not entirely true. Electric cars use half as much energy per mile as gas cars. They are inherently more effiecient regardless of how the electricity is generated.

    Additionaly, very little of our electricity is generated from oil. Much is it is from coal, which will naturaly be phased out of use as a fuel, long before we run out. Coal that we do not import by the way.

    Finaly, many people could, if they chose to, generate their own car fuel through solar or co-generation. Making your own gasoline is a lot harder.

    This country is heavily investing in alternative electricity right now. Storage of that power is an issue. Electric cars are part of the solution.
  23. Fat Charlie

    Fat Charlie New Member

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    Jharkin- sorry, I know it's not the running out, but the production decline. I was addressing rowerwet's position that market forces will handle all supply problems. We're going to run out of oil some day and production is going to fall to near zero, not abruptly cease one day. Market forces and technology may manipulate the supply and demand to shift the point that we hit peak oil, but that doesn't really matter when that point is. What matters is that we're going to hit it, and that's going to be a problem.
  24. Dune

    Dune Minister of Fire

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    For another veiwpoint on nuclear power as well as solar power read these two posts by a retired nuclear power plant engineer,
    http://anvilfire.com/hammerin/

    scroll down to Guru Thursday 9/30/10 18:49
    and Guru Friday 10/01/10 11:54

    I have known this guy for almost ten years, he is NOT a liberal, just a realist.
  25. jharkin

    jharkin Minister of Fire

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    I know nuclear has a lot of risks. TO be honest I used to be, until not very long ago, a true believer that we would research our way out of this problem. That the day would come when oil got expensive enough that solar/wind/or some other new tech (fusion?) would be economical and then we would have a nice smooth transition.

    Then came the 2008 oil shock. And the never ending recession. And the Macando spill. And the ability of people to forget the Macando spill a week later so long as gas stayed cheap. And I've just lost faith that technology will save us.

    Or maybe I read too much of the oil drum...

    Either way Em just not convinced anymore that we can scale up solar and wind in time to keep up our existing way of life before the fossils run out.

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