Will this be the Dark Winter that our President referred to?

[SidecarFlip]

Wife has been shopping for stuff like TP and paper towels online and that seems to be working so far. Fed-Ex stops here almost every day now.

Gasoline is making the climb here, over $3.25 a gallon for regular weasel pee. I dread thinking about what off road diesel will cost next season. I typically use around 300 gallons when I farm. I try to be frugal with it anyway. Used to let my tractors idle when not working to keep the ac running and the cabs cool. I quit doing that this last season and I've been running them below pto speed if the implement works as I need it to.

Our current administration has really screwed up everything far as consumables go. No, I didn't vote for them.

 

[begreen]

Congrats. 8 pages without politics. Let's keep it that way. Blaming current consumable issues on the current administration is disingenuous. There are global issues at play and we are joined at the hip to the rest of the world economically. This is definitely the case for fuel.

The supply chain issues have several factors that have crippled it due in large part industry dependencies on just in time shipping. With no inventories, and partial staffing due to covid, the whole system is dealing with the aftershocks. They can not make a car or a cellphone unless all the parts are there and the assembly line is ready to run.

 

[clancey]

Don't thank us too soon...clancey

 

[SidecarFlip]

Gasoline is going up almost daily around here. Same with diesel. Just topped off both farm tractors with off road diesel which is tax exempt, but it still cost me almost 70 bucks for each one. I like to keep them as full as possible when it gets cold out because full fuel tanks lessen the chance of condensation and the growth of algae.

I'm gonna make a prediction and that is, regular unleaded will be $4.00 by Christmas. I dread thinking about filling up the Suburban and it don't like the cheap stuff anyway. My little buggy no issue and it averages 39-40 mpg anyway.

Raised my prices on hay already but I might have to raise them some more they way it's looking.

America runs on gasoline so when the price gets outta sight, people will be driving less.

Sure am glad my heating fuel prices (corn) don't change and pellets weren't bad this year either but I'm optimistic about pellet prices next year.

 

[SidecarFlip]

Essential items like TP for instance can be had on the Internet and my wife handles that. Fresh meat cannot however. Menards was running a special on thick cut bacon at 2 dollars a pack under anyone else around here so I trundled down to get some the next day and the refrigerator case was bare... Oh well. Still have a couple packs in the deep freeze.

 

[SidecarFlip]

There are global issues at play and we are joined at the hip to the rest of the world economically. This is definitely the case for fuel.

We don't have to be with fuel. We were a net exporter and now we are a net importer. Please explain how that came about?

 

[begreen]

We don't have to be with fuel. We were a net exporter and now we are a net importer. Please explain how that came about?

The simple answer is that as a net exporter we sell to the highest bidder. Same as with corn. If Europe suddenly is paying 3-4x for corn, what will happen to the local prices? They're going to rise.
Longer story, global energy markets are in crunch mode, OPEC is holding back production, hurricane Ida messed up some refineries, a couple years ago oil exports were increased to offset the trade deficit, and demand in the US is high due to lots more traveling and vehicle miles happening.

 

[Bad LP]

The simple answer is that as a net exporter we sell to the highest bidder. Same as with corn. If Europe suddenly is paying 3-4x for corn, what will happen to the local prices? They're going to rise. Longer story, global energy markets are in crunch mode, OPEC is holding back production, hurricane Ida messed up some refineries, and demand in the US is high due to lots more traveling and vehicle miles happening.

Not so fast. OPEC wasn’t able to play their ‘global’ game not so long ago.
Nothing like getting on your knees while asking them for help at the same time.

 

[begreen]

Not so fast. OPEC wasn’t able to play their ‘global’ game not so long ago.
Nothing like getting on your knees while asking them for help at the same time.

They have always been able to play their global game and they choose when and how to play it. And remember, there are many other big players in that game besides the US. The US increasing fossil fuel exports a couple years back isn't helping us now either. Still, we are better buffered than Europe is. Like it or not, shrinking supplies and increased demand will create a price spike. This was predicted to happen back in January.

 

[SidecarFlip]

One thing to keep in mind is... As the price of motor fuel increases, the demand will drop as people will curtail their driving and... It will adversely impact vehicle sales as well and... it will also decrease spendable income as in people will conserve and spending will become more discretionary. The cost of fuel has a wide impact on other industries and the buying power of the people.

I'm guilty of inflationary spending myself as I've had to increase the cost of my crop to cover the cost of fuel and lubricants so it's a vicious circle that the consumer always ends up paying for.

I cannot operate at a loss and stay in business very long. neither can any other business for that matter. I know steel for instance has increased at least 30% over the last 6 months. I buy steel for the fabrication business I own. I've had to increase my rates because of that.
Inflation and the devaluing of the dollar has dire consequences.

 

[SidecarFlip]

Europe suddenly is paying 3-4x for corn, what will happen to the local prices? They're going to rise.

Of course they are but keep in mind that the inputs (seed, fertilizer and herbicides and pesticides) will also increase as well. The price of the crop may be higher but so will the inputs and fuel as well. Crops don't plant or harvest themselves and they still ne fertilizer and pest control too.

I'll have to check on the current prices for seed corn. Last year it was $330 a bag. I'm pretty sure it's quite a bit higher now. Why it's so important that the seed corn germs above 95%. No one wants to pay for dud seed corn at 330 a bag.

 

[begreen]

Of course they are but keep in mind that the inputs (seed, fertilizer and herbicides and pesticides) will also increase as well. The price of the crop may be higher but so will the inputs and fuel as well. Crops don't plant or harvest themselves and they still ne fertilizer and pest control too.

I'll have to check on the current prices for seed corn. Last year it was $330 a bag. I'm pretty sure it's quite a bit higher now. Why it's so important that the seed corn germs above 95%. No one wants to pay for dud seed corn at 330 a bag.

I was just giving a generic supply and demand example. Covid has disrupted world markets big time in many ways, including affecting commodity supplies.

 

[Fingerlakes Fireplace]

Yes of course it is still low. It is roughly 1%. But that can easily change with a new variant.

So you are saying you are perfectly fine with 1 out of 100 people dieing??? I personally am not.

Um, but you support abortiom....

 

[Fingerlakes Fireplace]

Yes the govt helped pay to develop them. But they didn't have a hand in the actual development.

Again I am not a supporter of vaccine mandates. But I do support business rights to require employees to have them or a valid reason they can't. I also support certain businesses being able to refuse service to those who are a much higher public safety risk due to their choices.

You dont support vaccines mandates, but you do support them.
Do you always talk out of both sides of your mouth?

 

[bholler]

Um, but you support choice....

Did I say that?

 

[bholler]

You dont support vaccines mandates, but you do support them.
Do you always talk out of both sides of your mouth?

I do not support vaccine mandates no. Allowing consequences for not choosing to get vaccinated isn't forcing you to do it. Just making the right decision more attractive. I think maybe you should look up terms before commenting about them

Why is it you are all for people and businesses having free choice untill it interferes with your viewpoint?

 

[Fingerlakes Fireplace]

I do not support vaccine mandates no. Allowing consequences for not choosing to get vaccinated isn't forcing you to do it. Just making the right decision more attractive. I think maybe you should look up terms before commenting about them

Why is it you are all for people and businesses having free choice untill it interferes with your viewpoint?

You are the one that has a problem.
Until a year ago, it was my body, my choice.
Does not matter how many people die...

 

[bholler]

You are the one that has a problem.
Until a year ago, it was my body, my choice.
Does not matter how many people die...

Again when did I ever say I supported forcing anyone to get the vaccine????

 

[Fingerlakes Fireplace]

Again when did I ever say I supported forcing anyone to get the vaccine????

Forcing=to make something happen or make someone do something difficult, unpleasant, or unusual, especially by threatening or not offering the possibility of choice:

 

[bholler]

Forcing=to make something happen or make someone do something difficult, unpleasant, or unusual, especially by threatening or not offering the possibility of choice:

Again when did I ever say I supported forcing anyone to get the vaccine????

Why should people be forced to be around unvaccinated people who obviously don't care about the well-being of the rest of the country?

 

[bholler]

Well it's a shame a couple people had to ruin the discussion but I have to close this. Sorry guys.