Very helpful info. Importantly, I mentioned to my wife the idea of getting a small SUV and an electric car, selling both the Camry and Avalon, and she is already looking for an SUV that she would like.
"Your 4500 kWh, assuming 3.2 miles/kWh (cold climate seasonal average) = 14,400 miles/yr."
This is pretty close to annual mileage on each on our two existing autos. All local driving has a round trip range of up to 90 miles, with an occasional 150 miles round trip. We also make frequent trips to Mpls-St. Paul, 190 miles one-way, to visit family. This is the reason for the 200+ mile range. Could work a deal out with each of our children to install a 50A - 240V charge station at their homes.
"Can you do your hauling in the back of a mid-size hatch with fold-down seats, maybe with some sort of protection you can insert when needed?If that doesn't work for you, is the hitch Class 1?"
Currently have a Class I on the Camry, small trailer works fine. We also have a teardrop, very small RV trailer, sleeping only. A hatch wouldn't do it.
"Do you have a garage that stays above 0°F year round (even better, above 20°F)?"
No. Garage is detached, unheated. Could keep the car plugged in while in the garage to prevent depleting the battery.
"The wild card is that the EV is likely more functional than you seem to expect."
My wife might want to take over use of the EV as her primary car. Would be OK with me.
"So to answer your question, if the other cars are paid off, why not keep them and have 3 (at least until your discover the functionality of the EV)?"
This is a possibility. We have parking space but not garage space for the 3rd car. The Camry would likely meet the elements with outside parking. Will discuss with our insurance agent. Also need to talk to our electric utility to see if it offers a special rate for car charging.
As expected, a challenging use case for an EV. An update:
The hitch is a no-go. Nothing short of a $100k tesla S or X will have any hitch. You will be retaining an ICE car just for this function, but I expect that will be low cost, and as you said, it can sit outside.
The 190 mile one-way hauls to Minneapolis would be no problem (I think we can safely assume) for a Bolt in above freezing weather, with normal LRR tires. I don't get range-anxiety, but I would still want some more data before assuming the Bolt could make the same run in below freezing weather.
Just to spin, you could keep the Camry, and the Mrs gets a Bolt (IF she liked a test drive), then you would prob be aok in a 2 car case, b/c you could take the Camry to the city in hard winter weather, and the Bolt otherwise. If you figure you made up the missing miles on the Bolt by preferring it for errands, you could prob do half or more of your miles EV. If the Camry is too beat for a comfortable road trip, you would keep the Avalon as the third car for that function (mostly getting driven on looong trips in very cold weather).
On the bright side, the two ICE cars are nearing end of life, so a 200+ mile BEV would extend those lives significantly, delaying the purchase of their replacement, perhaps significantly.
B/C of the long distances and extreme weather, though, a PHEV (with a decent all electric range 'AER') might make more sense if you really wanted to go to two cars and to not have to worry. The Volt would be a great start, but the 50 mile (good weather) AER is below your 90 mile errand maximum. Still it might cut your gas consumption a lot, but is a downsize for the mrs from an Avalon or SUV. If you wanted a bigger PHEV, then the AER tends to be even less. Meh.
In the end it will come down to two things I can't really get at: your and the mrs' reaction to a test drive, and pencilling out the costs WITH insurance. A new EV will have a high book value (over your cost less incentives) and a proportionally high insurance cost.
In my case, my wife is doing most of the miles, so it came down to her test drive, and she was pleasantly surprised. The feeling of control and responsiveness was a BIG positive for her versus her previous Toyotas.
