Hurricane Harvey

begreen said:

This is a global issue. Typhoons are getting stronger. At present there are major flooding events in many locations.

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I assume you mean tropical cyclones worldwide, not just west of the dateline. two interesting charts. first is ACE '70 to present, then this years activity


certainly no increase in strength shown here, extremely stable for. 37 years. from a tweet by Dr Ryan"
I've kept track of global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) & PDI since 2005. Yet to see a significant climate change signal in global sense. "

Seasoned Oak said:

Doesnt matter where you are on the whole global warming thing , i dont see any scenario that stops the warming so were just going to have to prepare for it or suffer the consequences. I keep hearing rebuild rebuild ,but better bebuild higher and stronger or its just a waste.

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Totally agree, insurance companies and governments are in the best position to help move this along. Don't insure people who live in high risk areas and spread the cost among those of us that don't live on flood plains.

begreen said:

Yes, the models seem to show less cyclones, but more cat 4&5 storms. You probably have read this paper too.
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/309/5742/1844.full
Warmer waters have the potential to deliver more moisture which is not really in these charts.

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I've read it now, thanks. well know facts. we all know what happens to hurricane on your coast. raging cabo howler and if it could get to San Diego a windy rain storm. I'll quote Maue again,"Sea-surface temperatures near Bahamas increase to over 29°C sufficient for intense hurricanes including Category 4 or 5. Irma will tap ".
the stats are derived in reality by sst. tropical cyclone rarely exist in sst temp 26*c, lower than that and it's Sandy, ex-trop. cyclones are warm core storms drawing heat from water through it eye and a lone non frontal entity, ex trops cold core frt. connected .
seasoak described perfectly with Harvey being blocked, training thunder storm on a stalled cold frt, 36" of snow instead of 6-8" when a high blocks our north easters ect. point here is you could have this in January if the pattern allowed.

from Klotzbach, CO. ST."Irma now has max winds of 120 mph - the strongest September hurricane in the tropical Atlantic (<23.5°N, 60-20°W) since Julia (2010). " This weekend the science articles will push the connect" two major storms in last several weeks". It's been there and will again. bet not one of them will mention the activity of the 1930-1960 era. co2 some 70-100 pys lower. and oh, nobody is even talkin bout Jose, rt behind Irma.
just for fun, I hope not , shades of "38 18z gfs

begreen said:

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Whole bunch of folks commented on the arctic jet stream question last week. yes mostly on my side of the agw question and their thoughts on that it causes everything going on in climate and weather.
this is three years old but a lot of folks still adhere to its idea. this from a co-author ipcc srex

then there is this little tidbit. 4 year old.

just a few more thoughts, this current situation seems to forget our storm history. if you haven't read about the '35 Keys disaster it is great story on the quickly exploding storm. like Andrew one day to cat 5.

So now the gulf area and other coastal areas have a new benchmark to work from . Build to a certain windspeed and 50 inches of rain. Im sure the insurance companies will weigh in on this.

the latest model runs aren't any fun. keep in mind these are models. have read that it is several days to forecast. latest has the Delmarva in the bulls eye. if that comes to pass we have ultra major major disaster #2. link to multifaceted site http://spaghettimodels.com/

Heard on the houston coverage that 65% of the flooded homes in Houston will NOT be rebuilt . Im wondering what the criteria is for that assumption ,no insurance so no financial means ,flood zone limitations , code changes ect or possibly all of the above.

Seasoned Oak said:

Heard on the houston coverage that 65% of the flooded homes in Houston will NOT be rebuilt . Im wondering what the criteria is for that assumption ,no insurance so no financial means ,flood zone limitations , code changes ect or possibly all of the above.

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So far, Texas governor is not going to call for a special session of the state legislature. They are next scheduled to meet in Jan. 2019. Maybe now would be a good time to hold public hearings by the state legislature on how to spend relief money, what codes could be changed, how to use the $10 billion rainy day fund Texas has stashed away (you know, for a rainy day - but wait, why use that money when the federal gov't will give us $150 billion for storm relief), or just have oversight on what is being done to assure no abuses are going on. You know, what legislatures should do.

vinny11950 said:

So far, Texas governor is not going to call for a special session of the state legislature. They are next scheduled to meet in Jan. 2019. Maybe now would be a good time to hold public hearings by the state legislature on how to spend relief money, what codes could be changed, how to use the $10 billion rainy day fund Texas has stashed away (you know, for a rainy day - but wait, why use that money when the federal gov't will give us $150 billion for storm relief), or just have oversight on what is being done to assure no abuses are going on. You know, what legislatures should do.

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the Tx legs only meet like 150 days over two years. don't know what their laws are are . agree seems like they should be active, maybe that it all falls on the gov's office

begreen said:

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I know from previous posts that Bastardi is not held in much regard here, but I thought his tweats this am made some good points.. hope they will translate well in this form,
#1 3 waves, 1 produced Harvey but waited till late to really crank another, classic track, but no development ( 92L) and now, Irma

#2 So, AGW had nothing to do with Harvey till last 3 days of path,nothing do with 92L, then picked Irma to enhance.. You cant be serious

#3Its as if they believe there is a magic co2 fairy that will enhance one system leave others alone.. If it gets enhanced its AGW if not, no

key is point #three, every storm should be exploding. Harvey isn't stuck in trop trough for 5 days, disaster but not what it became.


latest MODEL, AGAIN MODEL, looks alot like hugo but north,. visited area two weeks after , amazed! hugo was 1989!, could be the same, 2017?

The amount of denial here that AGW is a major contributor to super storms is deeply disturbing.

Multi-decade climate fluctuations are used by these cretins to suggest what we are experiencing now is just coincidental!

WoodyIsGoody said:

The amount of denial here that AGW is a major contributor to super storms is deeply disturbing.

Multi-decade climate fluctuations are used by these cretins to suggest what we are experiencing now is just coincidental!

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no denial climate change, agw has questions here. today we have so many tools that we can name a storm in mid any ocean in the world others times did not have those tools, hence we now have more storm with more accurate rankings . I'll throw out one year 1886! does that explain agw? you may want to notice ) no fish storms in mid-atl? wonder why that is.

Multi-decade climate fluctuations are used by these cretins to suggest what we are experiencing now is just coincidental!

I guess your talkin this stuff?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09...nergy-and-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillations/

The forecast paths for Irma are looking brutal for Florida. Hopefully this thing will veer off up the Atlantic.

vinny11950 said:

The forecast paths for Irma are looking brutal for Florida. Hopefully this thing will veer off up the Atlantic.

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twin of '35, agree if only!http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/sfl-1935-hurricane-story.html
120 hr. position from NHC
https://www.bing.com/maps?osid=4bfe...4.450015~-81.63739&lvl=9&v=2&sV=2&form=S00027

WoodyIsGoody said:

The amount of denial here that AGW is a major contributor to super storms is deeply disturbing.

Multi-decade climate fluctuations are used by these cretins to suggest what we are experiencing now is just coincidental!

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So, you're saying with certainty that a 400-600 yr storm would absolutely never have happened if fossil fuels were never discovered? Because, that's the topic here.
Freak storms didn't happen before the burning of fossil fuels? Interesting.

If denying that logic makes me a cretin, sign me up.

I will say, Irma looks powerful. 185 mph sustained winds. Gusts of 225. The small islands are getting hammered.

begreen said:

Word is that some landlords are still requiring Sept. rent payments for homes that are destroyed from people that are left with nothing.

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Only the Govt can (legally) take your money while providing nothing in return. Landlords always get a bad rap. In my experience there are 100 bad tenants for every bad landlord. Tenants need renters insurance on their personal belongings. They often think the landlord takes care of everything ,and have no insurance. Your personal mileage may vary.

Guess no one caught sight of this gem on federal emergency funds... http://globalnews.ca/news/3708482/donald-trump-emergency-aid-harvey/

Should be privatizing the rebuilding to a certain extent. Private companies and citizens will certainly not risk their own money on weak structures below historic flood levels, knowing the future likelihood of stronger storms and flooding. The Govt always waste money in everything they do. Hard to name anything done by Govt that comes in under budget and ahead of schedule.

Seasoned Oak said:

Should be privatizing the rebuilding to a certain extent. Private companies and citizens will certainly not risk their own money on weak structures below historic flood levels, knowing the future likelihood of stronger storms and flooding. The Govt always waste money in everything they do. Hard to name anything done by Govt that comes in under budget and ahead of schedule.

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Agree with this partly. If local governments refuse to zone and pass building codes that protect against a certain level of flooding and hurricane winds, then make the developers and builders keep some of their profits in escrow so that buyers can clawback some of the home payment for bad planning and construction. If developers can build in danger zones and not engineer the homes to withstand the natural threats, then give the buyers a recourse to get some money back. Builders and developers build as cheaply as possible and then walk away once the building is sold, leaving the owner to deal with the bad planning. Why should I subsidize the profits of a developer that built cheap homes on flood zones knowing full well they will never have to deal with the flooding because they sold the homes long ago? Or the buyers who bought the homes and didn't look at the flood maps?

If congress is going to pass this huge relief bill for Harvey (they should), at least require better building codes and better zone planning to limit the damage in the future.

From an article by Paul Craig Roberts

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2017/04/25/looting-machine-called-capitalism/

"I have come to the conclusion that capitalism is successful primarily because it can impose the majority of the costs associated with its economic activities on outside parties and on the environment. In other words, capitalists make profits because their costs are externalized and born by others. In the US, society and the environment have to pick up the tab produced by capitalist activity"