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Posted By roadking88,
Aug 27, 2012 at 3:03 PM
"The I-95 cities could get hit pretty good. It's a matter of getting the cold to phase in with the huge systems that we are going to see coming out of the southern branch of the jet stream this year," AccuWeather.com Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
The cold is expected to phase with the big storms during January and February with the potential for large snowstorms to make headlines and create travel headaches in the major cities.
Farmers' Almanac predicts winter with a vengeance.
The weather world is full of high-profile meteorologists like NBC's Al Roker and the Weather Channel's Jim Cantore. But the guy making the forecasts for the Farmers' Almanac is more like the man behind the curtain.
Robert F. Bukaty/Associated Press
Farmers' Almanac publisher Peter Geiger, left, and editor Sondra Duncan pose in Lewiston, Maine, with a map showing the predicted weather forecast for the United States. In an election year, the almanac dubs its forecast "a nation divided" because there's a dividing line where winter returns for much of the east, with milder weather west of the Great Lakes.
He's cloaked in mystery.
The publisher of the 196-year-old almanac, which goes on sale this week, takes great pains to protect the identity of its reclusive weather soothsayer, who operates under the pseudonym Caleb Weatherbee. Caleb's real name and hometown are a secret. And so is his age-old formula used for making long-term weather forecasts.
The mystery man's forecast for the coming winter suggests that people from the Great Lakes to northern New England should get out their long johns and dust off their snow shovels because it's going to be cold and snowy. It's also supposed to be wet and chilly in the Southeast, and milder for much of the rest of the nation.
Even just to speak to the forecaster, the almanac would agree only to an unrecorded phone call with the man from an undisclosed location.
"It's part of the mystique, the almanac, the history," said Editor Peter Geiger of the current prognosticator, the almanac's seventh, who has been underground since starting the job in the 1980s.
The weather formula created by almanac founder David Young in 1818 was based on planetary positions, sunspots and lunar cycles. Since then, historical patterns, weather data and a computer have been added to the mix.
In an election season, the almanac dubbed its forecast "a nation divided" because there's a dividing line where winter returns for much of the east, with milder weather west of the Great Lakes.
Scientists generally don't think too much of almanac's formula.
Ed O'Lenic, operations chief for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, declined to knock the almanac's methodology but said sun spots and moon phases aren't used by modern-day meteorologists.
"I'm sure these people have good intentions but I would say that the current state of the science is light years beyond what it was 200 years ago," O'Lenic said from Maryland.
In this year's edition, the almanac's editors are contrite about failing to forecast record warmth last winter but they suggested readers should go easy on the publication — and on Caleb — because nobody forecast 80-degree weather in March that brought the ski season a rapid end in northern New England.
"Let's face it — the weather was so wacky last year. It was so bizarre," said Sandi Duncan, managing editor, pointing out that NOAA and Accuweather also missed the mark.
Indeed, NOAA and Accuweather didn't project the extent of the warm winter.
"We missed it too, to put it bluntly," said Tom Kines, a meteorologist at Accuweather in State College, Pa. "It was a weird winter last year."
The Maine-based Farmers' Almanac is not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer's Almanac. Both issue annual forecasts, with the Old Farmer's Almanac scheduled for next month.
Geiger, who keeps a copy of Weatherbee's secret weather formula in a secure location, is quick to point out that there's more to the almanac than just weather forecasts. Hearkening to its old traditions, the folksy almanac features recipes, gardening tips, jokes, facts and trivia, and a guide to a simpler life.
For example, who knew that you could clean your toilet by pouring in Coca-Cola instead of harsh chemicals, or that putting a spoonful of vinegar in a pet's water dish keeps fleas at bay?
As for the weather, almanac readers say it's all good, clean fun.
"It's a fun publication to get and to read, to watch and see how accurate it is," said Wanda Monthey of Alexandria, Va. "It's a lot like a game."
I like how the graphic depicts cold weather coming down from Canada. Takes some cojones to make that prediction.
Ayuh, seem to remember that same predelikshun last year, and the year before, and .................
They must be using those imported wholly bear caterpillars from down south anything below 60 is cold.
I expect winter weather of one kind or other at some point.
I'm all set for fuel and just need to top off the food larder and gasoline supply so I can dig out without having to shovel for weeks.
gonna be getting dark after supper too......
You certain? Damn, I always thought it was going to be dark before breakfast.
They said the same last season. It was the easiest heating season I can remember! I have the stash stuffed and I'm ready if it happens! But I'll take fishing in my bass boat in Febuary(no ice on the lake) again if it's a repeat of last year.
Blah blah blah.........
And the word gullible is not in the dictionary
Uh huh... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4
Saw a "native" wooly-bear caterpillar today.....a LOT of black.
I used to think it was by how heavy the acorn drop was. But now think it is anything that is out there when you open the binds in the morning. So glad I seldom need to go out unless I want to. Keep a supply of heating fuel, food, and working tools on hand and the winter will safely pass so you can do it all over again. Be sure to leave yourself some time for some good reading and for telling some good stories.
We like to tell the good stories on here.
You know those magic pellet stories about heating your 3500 square foot house to 70 degrees on a bag of pellets a day when the wind is howling and the outside temperature is below zero.
We added to the larder today, went out for lunch I had a sausage platter and decent brew, came home with a case of beans and the remaining ingredients for a corn relish, salsa, and a sweet cucumber relish. Needed some peppers and corn. We had everything else from our garden.
Just finished with the processing. So more jars for the larder.
Shortly it will be time to harvest more of our winter squash. Those get stored in the garage and when we want one to eat we generally cook two or three and freeze what we don't eat for that meal. I don't know what we are going to do with the ones that are heading into the ten plus pound category, could process those to have for pie filling. Got plenty of jars and shelf space.
This year I bought a p61a with 3 ton of Turman, a Honda generator and a new 28 inch snowblower. We are going to have a mild winter here in pa for sure. If I was still relying on my heat pump and shovel I'd be snowed in.
You know what, if getting well prepared turns your luck in a positive way, consider it a wise investment! Good for you!
Also the "Cold & Snowy" in the Farmer's Almanac for the northern part of the country ........ duh!! (However the girl is cute though )
I'm hoping for a snow storm in September. Of course being a wood stove salesman, I'm hoping for a snow storm every day!
It's like the old joke... The indians in our area were predicting a cold fall. When we asked them how they knew they said "We watch the white man stack cord wood, if big piles... cold winter"
Me too fyrebug. Bring it on