Propane users - interesting read

[TboneMan]

For those of you, like me, have propane as their central heating source (pellets serve to offset propane usage), this weeks EIA report is interesting. It explains why propane prices have not reacted the same as others products to lower crude prices.


(broken link removed)

 

[dac122]

Thanks for posting. Interesting report. I was wondering why the prices hadn't moderated a little more. It looks like we may be on track for some price easing due to higher than normal inventories and lower price contracts with wholesalers.

It would be interesting to track propane future prices to determine how much I should use my furnace vice pellet and wood. Does anyone have a reliable link for futures, and a link of historical future prices?

 

[BrotherBart]

Propane futures are traded on the NYMEX sub exchange COMEX. Trading data is available here:

(broken link removed)

Don't know where you would get comparative retail delivered price data.

 

[dac122]

Propane futures are traded on the NYMEX sub exchange COMEX. Trading data is available here:

(broken link removed)

Don't know where you would get comparative retail delivered price data.

Thanks.

After some rooting around I found another site that confirms those prices plus shows multi-year history. If you look here it appears prices are trading close to 2004 levels.

It looks like prices will be extremely low compared to last year. Does anyone agree or am I just being too optimistic?

 

[JustWood]

Propane futures are traded on the NYMEX sub exchange COMEX. Trading data is available here:

(broken link removed)

Don't know where you would get comparative retail delivered price data.

Thanks.

After some rooting around I found another site that confirms those prices plus shows multi-year history. If you look here it appears prices are trading close to 2004 levels.

It looks like prices will be extremely low compared to last year. Does anyone agree or am I just being too optimistic?

I just got my prebuy notice and price is $1.51/gal. Minimum 300 gals. Signed contract by May 15. That's the lowest I have seen in a long time.

 

[dac122]

I just got my prebuy notice and price is $1.51/gal. Minimum 300 gals. Signed contract by May 15. That's the lowest I have seen in a long time.

Thanks. What was your price, or pre-buy, like this time last year?

 

[JustWood]

I just got my prebuy notice and price is $1.51/gal. Minimum 300 gals. Signed contract by May 15. That's the lowest I have seen in a long time.

Thanks. What was your price, or pre-buy, like this time last year?

I topped off in Feb 08 @$1.71. But when the prebuy came out in April/May it was at $2.55. I bit the bullet and burned wood 24/7 from Oct 17 till now to cut my usage and tank is still at 70%. Shouldn't need to refill for 2 years.

 

[cms0553]

June 08, I filled up @3.19/gal with an offer to sign the contract @3.87/gal.
i told them KMA and bought the pellet stove.
Filled up in Nov 08 @2.10/ gal.
Filled up yesterday @1.19/ gal and signed the contract to buy another 400 gallons @1.39/gal.
I've lived here 17 years and don't think I've ever gotten propane this low.
I have 3 tons of pellets for next winter and will use the pellet stove as primary heat and propane furnace to suppliment it.
Also using propane for hot water, stove, and dryer.

 

[minnow]

Well there's the third leg of the stool. As has been previously posted here, natural gas and fuel oil are low - very low. Now with propane futures joining the other two, this does not bode well for sustained pellet prices. This is definetly NOT the year to pre-buy. Manufacturers are going to have to drop prices significantly as the year goes on if they have any hope at all of moving inventory. My guess is that we won't see much price movement until late summer/early fall, when the pellet manufactures realize that a big percentage of their customers are planning on returning to conventional heating fuels. The question then will be, is it too little to late ?

 

[rowerwet]

hopefuly the gas companies build more pipelines so that trucking doesn't have to be relied on again. If the price goes back down there won't be as much pressure on gas companies to reopen the wells they have capped right now in the US. I have a friend in TN whose grandparents have a gas well on thier farm, it has been capped ever since the well was drilled, they get a check from the gas company and they heat with gas for free.
There is an airplane I work on that does gas pipeline observation, the pilot is out flying 5 days a week, he flies from the canadian border, out over the gulf of maine, all over MA, VT, NH, CT, RI, NY, and PA. It is amazing that with that many pipelines there could still be a shortage, and all the pipelines that he checks on are owned by one company, there are other companies that also pipe gas into New England, and they have their own airplanes.

 

[TboneMan]

hopefuly the gas companies build more pipelines so that trucking doesn't have to be relied on again. If the price goes back down there won't be as much pressure on gas companies to reopen the wells they have capped right now in the US. I have a friend in TN whose grandparents have a gas well on thier farm, it has been capped ever since the well was drilled, they get a check from the gas company and they heat with gas for free.
There is an airplane I work on that does gas pipeline observation, the pilot is out flying 5 days a week, he flies from the canadian border, out over the gulf of maine, all over MA, VT, NH, CT, RI, NY, and PA. It is amazing that with that many pipelines there could still be a shortage, and all the pipelines that he checks on are owned by one company, there are other companies that also pipe gas into New England, and they have their own airplanes.

Pipelines are a HUGE capitol investment and an PR and environmental impact nightmare (Not-in-my-backyard syndrome) ! Trucking works on a adhoc basis without the initial outlay of cash. I would bet most of the pipeline your talking about for a for natural gas, and liquid fuels (gasoline & diesel). I would suspect that a propane pipeline would have to be pretty specialized in order to withstand sufficient pressure to keep the "Liquid Petroleum Gas" liquid.


Looking at the price you all are paying now, I kind of interested to see what my supplier does with his prices. It would be great to pay less that $2.00/gal again.

 

[mullet]

I haven't used a single drop of propane this year or last year. @ $3.68 no thanks not to mention my house is finally warm. I never had that really warm feeling with propane.

 

[rowerwet]

hopefuly the gas companies build more pipelines so that trucking doesn't have to be relied on again. If the price goes back down there won't be as much pressure on gas companies to reopen the wells they have capped right now in the US. I have a friend in TN whose grandparents have a gas well on thier farm, it has been capped ever since the well was drilled, they get a check from the gas company and they heat with gas for free.
There is an airplane I work on that does gas pipeline observation, the pilot is out flying 5 days a week, he flies from the canadian border, out over the gulf of maine, all over MA, VT, NH, CT, RI, NY, and PA. It is amazing that with that many pipelines there could still be a shortage, and all the pipelines that he checks on are owned by one company, there are other companies that also pipe gas into New England, and they have their own airplanes.

Pipelines are a HUGE capitol investment and an PR and environmental impact nightmare (Not-in-my-backyard syndrome) ! Trucking works on a adhoc basis without the initial outlay of cash. I would bet most of the pipeline your talking about for a for natural gas, and liquid fuels (gasoline & diesel). I would suspect that a propane pipeline would have to be pretty specialized in order to withstand sufficient pressure to keep the "Liquid Petroleum Gas" liquid.


Looking at the price you all are paying now, I kind of interested to see what my supplier does with his prices. It would be great to pay less that $2.00/gal again.

all of the pipelines are just for NG, according to what I have heard propane is a lower pressure form of NG, not sure if this is true, I will have to ask the pilot next time I see him.

 

[webbie]

I think LP is refined, while NG is piped pretty much as it leaves the ground. NG is piped at a relatively low pressure, while LP is much higher - probably due to the fact they have to transport it over the road, etc.

Yep, LP is largely refined (distilled) from "wet" (dirty) NG :
https://www.hearth.com/econtent/index.php/articles/history_and_nature_of_fuel_gases