Science paper on IRA impacts... US very close to Paris 2030 target.

[woodgeek]

A large academic analysis just dropped in Science magazine.

https://www.science.org/stoken/author-tokens/ST-1277/full

The bottom line is that the inflation reduction act will have a large impact on projected US emissions out to 2035. Several different models are considered, and the trend goes from a lame reduction pre-IRA to a large reduction post-IRA.

This could get US to the very difficult Paris 2030 +2°C target (of 50% reduction in CO2e versus 2005) for the entire US... around 2035.

Of course, these models assume that no additional incentives will be forthcoming, and are probably conservative re the role of future tech innovation between now and then.

Most of the decline is on the green energy generation side. EV deployment grows rapidly, but changes to the fleet arrive too late to move the needle much by 2030. But EVs will be key to further declines needed after 2030.

 

[begreen]

EVs are selling, but mainly for Tesla, by a long shot. Most car companies are reporting excess inventories of EVs and are short on non-EV supply. I think this is due to the high cost of EVs, changing battery tech, questionable charging networks, and uncertainties. As charging standards come into place, costs come down, and battery tech improves, wider adoption will take place. But it may take until 2030 for that to happen.

 

[woodgeek]

EVs are selling, but mainly for Tesla, by a long shot. Most car companies are reporting excess inventories of EVs and are short on non-EV supply. I think this is due to the high cost of EVs, changing battery tech, questionable charging networks, and uncertainties. As charging standards come into place, costs come down, and battery tech improves, wider adoption will take place. But it may take until 2030 for that to happen.

You are talking about the US market, which is small, and ofc the thread topic.

I think that the legacy makers saw the 'Tesla phenomenon' and saw $$$. Like, we can make something, list it for $100k and sell everything we make.

Um no. At that price point, you have to rival Tesla head to head, or find a new market (like F-150 Lightning).., and the new market needs to exist and not worry about the charger network.

Ford inventory is piling up bc they jacked the prices, while Tesla cut theirs.

The bottom of the market (<$40k, and thus cheaper than the 3 and the Y) have piles of demand, and no product.

Bolts are selling as fast as they are made... but the Ultium products... don't exist! Production delays. They ARE selling ultium Hummers (like in the dozens per month), but the low cost Ultia to replace the Bolt? Nope. They are struggling to scale production! Kinda like the model 3 five years ago.

GM has advertized their Ultium EV products in the last 2 Super Bowls and the World Series... an not shipped one unit. Talk about Egg on Face.

The EVs made overseas... all creamed due to IRA incentives.

 

[begreen]

Yes, agreed, though isn't he Cadillac Lyriq on the Ultium platform? They have over 2,000 sold so far this year. Still, inventory bloat persists. Ford has unsold Mustang Mach Es on the lot and the F150 Lightning is taking so long to deliver that buyers are switching.

Ford's electric Mustang Mach-E is piling up on dealer lots as the automaker confronts an EV-inventory problem

The company's sales numbers, amount of EV supply, and dealer sentiment all indicate Ford that is sitting on more electric vehicles than it can sell.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[woodgeek]

Yes, agreed, though isn't he Cadillac Lyriq on the Ultium platform? They have over 2,000 sold so far this year. Still, inventory bloat persists. Ford has unsold Mustang Mach Es on the lot and the F150 Lightning is taking so long to deliver that buyers are switching.

Ford's electric Mustang Mach-E is piling up on dealer lots as the automaker confronts an EV-inventory problem

The company's sales numbers, amount of EV supply, and dealer sentiment all indicate Ford that is sitting on more electric vehicles than it can sell.

www.businessinsider.com

Right!

For comparison, GM should break 100k Bolt sales this year (finally, after promising that volume for years). That would've made GM an EV 'player' in 2019. But ofc, they don't build the batteries or drivetrains for the Bolt, those are still LG products.

So those few thousand Lyrics are it for GM. That is how many BEVs they are making, and yes they are Ultium. Hardly much in the way of scale, and a fraction of what was considered a decent 'compliance car' level in the last decade... about 10k units/year.

Pathetic.

I think you are seeing some saturation at the high end of the market (where Tesla and Ford and the Lyriq sit). There is plenty of EV demand at the low end of the market (see Bolt sales and inventory at $25k), but Ford's production costs are so high they don't want to give their existing EVs away. And GM says it wants to sell cheap EVs (that is makes, not the Bolt), but they are more than a year late to bringing them to market.

The IRA incentives are less effective at the top of the market, and part of the saturation is bc Tesla's build quality and interior finishes have not improved, turning off many high end buyers. And Ford's offerings are only slightly better that way, and worse on tech.

This is not an EV problem, this is a legacy makers not figuring out how to make EVs cheaply enough problem. Tesla is way ahead of them on that score, and why their 'cheap' EVs, the 3 and Y are the only thing selling at scale in the US. As you pointed out.

 

[EbS-P]

The IRA was/is the most monumental legislation to pass and I think bigger than Obama care (can we rename the IRA already?) probably since the New Deal.

Teals is breaking (or broke) ground soon on Giga Mexico. I expect 2-3 years until decent production rates.

The point that major CO2 reductions are not being seen in transportation sector until after 2030 I think matches what I’m observing.

I’m impressed. We aren’t even seeing manufacturing output from the IRA yet. They are still planning and building factories. I just hope the winds don’t change and the incentives changed or repealed.

 

[begreen]

The long-term effects of the IRA will be substantial. A report was released last week that analyzes the future effect of just 3 main areas of this act - sustainable aviation fuel, clean hydrogen, and direct air capture. The predicted results using the Emerging Climate Technology Framework (ETCF) are substantial. The ECTF model uses current market conditions to predict how quickly technologies will develop and become accessible to the general market. It gives solar technology development in the marketplace as precedent.

The results predict 99-193 million metric tons of carbon emissions reduction between 2030 and 2050. Cost reductions of these technologies accelerate global deployment which adds 65 million tons of carbon emissions reductions. By 2080-2100 IRA incentives are reaching global CO2 abatement of 401-847 metric tons.

Global Emerging Climate Technology Diffusion and the Inflation Reduction Act | Rhodium Group

The Inflation Reduction Act represents a turning point in US climate policy and a suite of recent analyses estimate it will significantly accelerate the pace of US greenhouse gas emissions reductions.…

rhg.com

 

[woodgeek]

The IRA was/is the most monumental legislation to pass and I think bigger than Obama care (can we rename the IRA already?) probably since the New Deal.

I know... we can call it the Green New Deal.

I just hope the winds don’t change and the incentives changed or repealed.

Joking aside, the key with all large legislation is durability... lots of incumbents that want it to continue. That was true of ObamaCare.

And now there are plenty of charts about reshoring manufacturing in the US, and investment in factories spiking to the highest level EVER, corrected for inflation.

And while some on the right will complain about the Bill, most of them are just play acting, and are very happy to have the money in their district.

 

[SpaceBus]

I know... we can call it the Green New Deal.



Joking aside, the key with all large legislation is durability... lots of incumbents that want it to continue. That was true of ObamaCare.

And now there are plenty of charts about reshoring manufacturing in the US, and investment in factories spiking to the highest level EVER, corrected for inflation.

And while some on the right will complain about the Bill, most of them are just play acting, and are very happy to have the money in their district.

I've noticed a lot of local roads are getting fixed.