What heating option can save European homes from this winter?

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fbelec

Minister of Fire
Nov 23, 2005
3,387
Massachusetts
we here about it all the time around here. every october when it starts getting cold out we hear of fires that start from electric heaters being to close to a bed or sofa. we will hear of more this year that will burn 2 to 3 family houses. that's just here, never mind the cost of fuel in Europe
 

ABMax24

Minister of Fire
Sep 18, 2019
1,618
Grande Prairie, Alberta, Canada
The scenario that all utilities are severed is not happening in Europe this winter (except for areas in Ukraine).

While I absolutely appreciate your optimism here, what happens when Russia completely shuts of the gas and oil to Europe?

It's only a matter of time, my belief is there will be major supply disruptions taking place around the beginning of November, but certainly before Christmas.
 

monteville

Feeling the Heat
Nov 23, 2019
435
Dallas
While I absolutely appreciate your optimism here, what happens when Russia completely shuts of the gas and oil to Europe?

It's only a matter of time, my belief is there will be major supply disruptions taking place around the beginning of November, but certainly before Christmas.
There will be a huge price hike. You can still afford using electronics and TV, and maybe washing machines, but not heat pumps, gas furnaces and electric heaters.
Many people will be installing solid fuel heaters, such as rocket mass heater and masonry heaters.
 

bholler

Chimney sweep
Staff member
Jan 14, 2014
29,190
central pa
There will be a huge price hike. You can still afford using electronics and TV, and maybe washing machines, but not heat pumps, gas furnaces and electric heaters.
Many people will be installing solid fuel heaters, such as rocket mass heater and masonry heaters.
Well if they are building masonry heaters they better have started already
 
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EatenByLimestone

Minister of Fire
Yeah, it takes time to get those materials together. Labor takes a bit of time too.
 
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Highbeam

Minister of Fire
Dec 28, 2006
19,869
Mt. Rainier Foothills, WA
As long as there’s power, they will run space heaters to not die. To heck with the cost that may or may not be due when the bill arrives. This is the short term reality. When enough people can’t pay their bills or the power plant can’t make power then the power goes out and people start doing dangerous things.

Long term, like years away, things like air sealing and installation of efficient heaters is nice but not really applicable here.

I see the reality as it will be business as usual until the power actually goes out. At which time it will be like an apocalypse situation.
 

Shank0668

New Member
May 21, 2022
44
Ohio
While I know reserves are fairly filled, the damage to Nord Stream 1 certainly won't help things.
 

stoveliker

Minister of Fire
Nov 17, 2019
5,311
Long Island NY
Not any time soon, but I am not convinced that a decade from now Russia will still be the pariah it is today. I don't believe they will be a second Iran in the world forever.

They'll not change significantly, but the world won't keep at them like they are now. It's our persistence that would make it so, and our persistence is not that great (or principled)...
 
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EatenByLimestone

Minister of Fire
As I understand it, the crude that comes from Siberia has to pump or the equipment will freeze and be damaged. Russia does not have the knowhow on its own to repair it. It was all foreign companies that got them flowing again after the last shutdown in the 90s when the USSR fell.

I'm betting they felt that they could peel Germany away from the rest of Europe. At this time, the Germans aren’t playing their game.
 

ABMax24

Minister of Fire
Sep 18, 2019
1,618
Grande Prairie, Alberta, Canada
As I understand it, the crude that comes from Siberia has to pump or the equipment will freeze and be damaged. Russia does not have the knowhow on its own to repair it. It was all foreign companies that got them flowing again after the last shutdown in the 90s when the USSR fell.

I'm betting they felt that they could peel Germany away from the rest of Europe. At this time, the Germans aren’t playing their game.

I've read the same thing, and don't really buy it. It's not particularly difficult equipment to work on, and I can assure you Russians know how to build, operate, and repair this equipment.

Crude doesn't expand when it solidifies, unless it contains water. The Alberta oilsands pump much thicker crudes (bitumen really) in winter, freezup is a concern but it's manageable, and fixable.

Worst case scenario if all else fails, kick open a valve and spill the oil on the ground before shutting in the wells, let the infrastructure freeze without liquid in it.

There's also another factor, spring and summer come every year. Oil almost always flows in summer.

The real issue is parts, they have most certainly outsourced many of the specialty components in this infrastructure. Western sanctions will have the greatest impact here IMO.
 

monteville

Feeling the Heat
Nov 23, 2019
435
Dallas
As I understand it, the crude that comes from Siberia has to pump or the equipment will freeze and be damaged. Russia does not have the knowhow on its own to repair it. It was all foreign companies that got them flowing again after the last shutdown in the 90s when the USSR fell.

I'm betting they felt that they could peel Germany away from the rest of Europe. At this time, the Germans aren’t playing their game.

Not any time soon, but I am not convinced that a decade from now Russia will still be the pariah it is today. I don't believe they will be a second Iran in the world forever.

They'll not change significantly, but the world won't keep at them like they are now. It's our persistence that would make it so, and our persistence is not that great (or principled)...
The problem is our daily consumer products are made in china, who refuses to sanction Russia, keeping Russia's economy afloat. China has everything to replace what we embargo from Russia, which Russia exchange with its oil and gas.
 

EatenByLimestone

Minister of Fire
No it doesn’t. Where are you getting these ideas? What research have you done on them?

China makes low end consumer goods. Russia needs high end semi conductors. China only makes low end semiconductors and they import the equipment to do that. They can’t produce it.

Remember the stories about Russians stealing boards out of washing machines?



Look at a map of Russian oil pipelines. Where do they go? How many go to Europe? How many go to Asia? Are they interconnected? Where does the oil come from that goes to each place and compare that to their oil fields. Russia can’t send much oil to China inexpensively. They could probably send some from the European pipelines via supertanker, but how long do you think that’ll take? How much do you think it would cost? Would the extra distance eat up the discount they buy it since they have no access to the Suez Canal? Now look at shipping insurance that is available to Russia. It’s quite the dilemma they are in.

I recommend you do a bit of research on this stuff.