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Are pellets going to be impossible to find soon?

Post in 'The Pellet Mill - Pellet and Multifuel Stoves' started by ylomnstr, Jun 3, 2008.

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  1. richg

    richg Minister of Fire

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    There will be no issues with pellet supply. People may not like the price, but that is the way it is with capitalism. In the last great pellet shortage of 2005-2006, Katrina hit in late August, oil prices shot up, and pellet mania ensued for the 05-06 heating season. The pellet manufacturing infrastructure and pre-season delivery arrangements were not in place to support the huge increase in demand. This time around, many, many new mills have come on line, and we are going into the summer when mills will be cranking out pellets that will be stored for shipping at a later date. The best way to avoid being caught without pellets, and this works come heck or high water, is simply to buy them in April-August. You will never, ever have a problem if you do that regardless of the supply situation. I had six tons in my yard a month before Katrina hit.

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  2. mkmh

    mkmh New Member

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    More on Adam Cote's energy policy
    Again, I am NOT endorsing him at this point....but he has my attention

    http://www.adamcote.com/release_details.asp?id=31

    ------
    Wood pellets provide another tremendous opportunity for Maine to lead the green economy. They are derived from recycling sawmill waste, so they do not encourage the destruction of our environment. By switching our oil furnaces to furnaces that burn clean wood pellets, we would reduce our dependence on volatile foreign oil prices, reduce our carbon emissions—and when we pay our energy bills, we would be recycling money into our own economy, not sending it overseas to Saudi Arabia. To take advantage of this opportunity, the federal government should provide a tax credit for individuals and businesses to convert to clean burning wood pellet furnaces and encourage Small Business Administration loans to businesses that contribute to creating a wood pellet industry in Maine.
  3. gw2kpro

    gw2kpro New Member

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    "Turns out this guy has an energy plan for the state"

    Nice to see a politician with some ideas here in Maine -- I think when the phrase "energy plan" is thought of by current and prior administrations, what comes to mind is how to implement a tax in order to buy more oil to distribute to those who can't afford it. That's the plan.

    Not that I'm against helping the needy, but just about everyone is getting to the point where they can't afford oil. With the millions upon millions upon millions this state spends each hear on heating oil, a sound enery plan should have been developed by now, one that helps people, diversifies our options (natural gas isn't an option for anyone because the distribution hasn't been developed), and helps the economy.

    No, a pellet stove is not right for everyone, but they work for a lot of people. What has the state ever done to encourage people to look at these types of solutions, keeping in mind that Maine's economy could benefit tremendously from a big increase in pellet usage? Nada. Zip.
  4. Harman PC 45 x 2

    Harman PC 45 x 2 New Member

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    I live in central Michigan. There have been two new pellet plants in the state start up in the last year. I believe that it puts it at 5 plants in the state. I can pre-buy pellets until June 30th ranging from 140-160 per ton depending on the producer on a 7 ton order. Some are noted for better quality than others. This price is with the "middle man" getting his cut. The cost increase that is going to take place after June 30th is due to energy cost to produce and deliver the product not because of lack of material. Pellets here actually have decreased in price over the past few years. Two years ago price was around 200-230 per ton. Last year I paid 150 per ton on 5 ton order and it looks like the same price range this year. I am not sure what everyone experience has been, but the cheapest pellet isn't always the best. Happy Heating!
  5. JustWood

    JustWood Minister of Fire

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    There is a MASSIVE glut of raw material in Michigan due to the Emerald Ash Borer.
  6. gbeane

    gbeane Member

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    I just ordered a pellet stove May 31st, and it was supposed to be ready in 2 weeks. I just started calling around for pellets. Once place (Granville Stone in Holdel for anyone else from Maine), not too far from my house was selling them for $219 a ton, with a $25 delivery charge for up to 10 tons. They are sold out for now, but he says they will be getting plenty in a month. He also said they might go up in price $10 to $15, if the price changes at all. Should I take his word and call him back at the end of the month, or should I look around some more? Another place is advertising for $249/ton delivered should I call them? A few other places near me had them in stock but they didn't deliver and I don't want to have to transport them.
  7. ylomnstr

    ylomnstr Feeling the Heat

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    Seems like it's anyones guess right now. My dealer told me he's getting some in this month too, and they should be set for the winter. Others say they're going to be hard to find. If you can get them now, and get a quality pellet for a reasonable price, I'd stock up now just in case.
  8. JustWood

    JustWood Minister of Fire

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    I give up !

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  9. mkmh

    mkmh New Member

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    Yep, i'd go ahead and lay your money down somewhere and get a receipt. 219 is a good price and that delivery change is very reasonable. If you hav ethe cash go ahead and complete the transaction and get a delivery scheduled.

    In 2005 when the supplies dried up is was mostly the "2 bags at a time" crowd that took a hit. A lot of us secured our supplies in the summer-fall and made it through fine. However I do remember being a little nervous as my reserves started running down in early March. It'll probably be more of the same this year. If we have unusually cold weather (or a long winter) to go along with the other challenges with the supply chain, then definitely some of the folks who waited 'till the last minute will get burned (or more accurately get cold)
  10. Hbbyloggr

    Hbbyloggr New Member

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    I have to agree with you , Lees W-Co. Being in the firewood market ( at the bottom of the logging food chain ) I see it every day. Normally we get 2 to 3 12 cord grapple loads delivered in per week....We had 1 load come in 2 months ago. Folks say, " Well, when you get some green wood could you call me? " Ha Ha, don't you get it ?

    The log markets are poor, the mills are too far away, the fuel is too expensive to make the trip to the mill pay, the mills are not paying enough to offset the fuel costs...Oh, did I say the log markets are poor? .. development has slowed to a crawl, so all the "cheap and plenty of it" wood has evaporated. Turn the key off and park it is what's happening.

    Pellets, cordwood, slab wood, you name it ,all comes from the same source. Who's going to cut it and for who ?

    Then folks call and say they've called everyone and no one has any wood. Well, we have wood. Then they say my price is too high ( I paid extra to just get it in the yard for processing ) Hello ?

    Lees, can I come over to use your wall to beat my head against? I wore mine out.

    Kind regards, Bill
  11. gw2kpro

    gw2kpro New Member

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    I just picked up the last ton of the pellets I need for this winter at $219 a ton. Come 7 PM tonight, I'll have more pellets in my basement than I'll need for this winter.

    I often wonder about people -- having the foresight to invest in a pellet stove, yet some will go hand to mouth with their pellet supply this winter and might see posts up here proclaiming that they can't find pellets.

    Do they drive around all year in their car on 1/8 of a tank of gas and then hope that there will be a gas station nearby when they run out? Do they buy fuel oil each day in the winter, 2 gallons at a time, and hope that will get them by until they bring home the next 2 gallon can? Maybe, I don't know. Why is it different with pellets? Who would want to worry about finding pellets this winter when it's colder than heck out and they might not be around? Not me.

    No not everyone has the space to store 5 or 6 tons of pellets, but everyone has the space to store at least a ton, if not 2.

    If you are reading this, here's a prediction: it's going to get cold this winter in most places in America. When it gets cold, you are going to need pellets if you want to burn them to keep warm. There are lots and lots and lots of pellets on the market right now at good prices. Buy as many as you can reasonably store, now, so that you won't have to worry about supply problems this winter.

    If you put 2 tons in your basement now, that doesn't mean you can't buy them this winter also.
  12. sinnian

    sinnian Minister of Fire

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    I am still looking for input from people who at least have used pellet stoves in the past as their main source of heat. If 6 tons are not enough, I have the money and will find the space to get more. However, I do not want to get them just because.....

    Thanks in Advance ~ Jeff
  13. sinnian

    sinnian Minister of Fire

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    Just killed any chances of Lee selling his business to someone here :eek:hh:
  14. Wet1

    Wet1 Minister of Fire

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    I'd order more. It takes a little over 6 tons of pellets to equal 800 gal. of oil (in btu's), probably closer to 6.5 tons. You might get by with 6 tons, but it's probably better to get at least another ton and not have to worry about calling it close later in the year.

    Just my 2 cents.
  15. JustWood

    JustWood Minister of Fire

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    Didn't kill my chances. It's already sold anyway, if I choose to accept the price I have been offered.

    Look you doubting Thomas'. In the next 18 -24 months there are going to be some BIG changes in the wood industry from TOP - BOTTOM. How it will play out is anyones guess. But my educated guess is fewer players in the raw wood businees and more players in the pellet business which will create a very commanding market for raw wood with very few players or new players willing to get spanked after this last blast ! Right now market price for pulp is around $30/ton. If I had to invest in equipment to log JUST pulp I would have to have $70+/ton to make a decent living or I wouldn't do it. So when pellets are at their peak this year add $40 for next year UNLESS the lumber markets turn around then pellets will remain stable.I'm willing to bet that some plans for new mills will be scrapped or put on hold till things look a little better.

    Have you guys ever thought about how long it's going to take these people who have had their houses repod to repair their credit before they can buy or build a house again. Have you ever thought about how much smaller and efficient new homes will be when they are eventually built. Quite possibly existing large homes will be divided into multi unit housing. These factors will limit the available wood on the market because once again I will say that " grade log logging has to take place in order for there to be pulp on the market". The housing market has BURST and is splattered all over the place.

    North America is the largest hardwood producing continent in the world. Who do you think other countries are going to look at for wood. With energy prices up worldwide and the value of the dollar it's a good bet much of our pellet production is going abroad.

    You guys have to read further into the equation than the occaisonal newspaper article that talks about a new mill being built.


    Theres no doubt in my mind that continued high energy prices will further enhance alternative energy technology but not before those who are not prepared , get bent over the proverbial stump.

    I'm tired of beating my head against the wall for you guys so this is probably my last post till next November when I will return to listen to you bozos whine about paying $400/ton ! Good day ! I have some line to wet.
  16. mkmh

    mkmh New Member

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    Have fun fishing. I think we all value your insight, but I I think most of us are just expecting pellets to be cheaper than oil.
    I'm not going to whine if pellets hit 400 a ton, because my bet is that in that scenario oil would be in the 6 bucks per gallon range.

    You raised a lot of good points and I'm sure people hear you, but the undercurrent of negativity isn't helping your cause, whatever that cause may be. If your agenda is to educate and help people on the forum, calling them bozos may be counterproductive. Have a good summer!
  17. JustWood

    JustWood Minister of Fire

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    Ya , and I guess you guys calling me a preacher of doom and gloom is OK too. Cold hard facts and my knowledge are all I have put upon the table. I don't have a cause and I never said pellet cost would excede oil. You guys can take what I have offered and benefit from it or not, doesn't matter to me.
  18. Willman

    Willman Minister of Fire

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    Lees is this price paid to logger at the mill ? I remember pulp was paid by the cord here in Maine. I wonder what the paper company gets for a ton of pulp that is ready to go. Prolly many times more than 30$. There is no question at all that the housing/lumber market is done for a long while. The last of the resets will happen soon. Add in average 18 months for the foreclosure process and it will be next summer maybe before sales pick up. And then there is the huge inventory of unsold s to get rid of. I wouldn't want to be in any loggers boots at this time.
  19. MCPO

    MCPO Minister of Fire

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    Hey! Cool down pal. You sound like you are pissed at the world with all your doom and gloom.
    Don`t blame us if you are on the losing end of things.
    If it doesn`t matter to you why are you so angry?
    We`ll take what you have to offer but don`t try to come across as Jesus Christ himself. This is a discussion forum , not a bar room brawl and calling us Bozos is out of order.

    John
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