got to love Mass government??????

[sportbikerider78]

History has shown us that tax cuts le as d to short term gains causeing a bubble which is unsustainable. That is what happened after the reagan tax cuts and the bush ones. But i am sure it will be different this time

At any point in time, you can overpay your IRS tax bill and refuse any returns. If you did, do you think it would make a difference? I would think you would rather spend your money where you would like to spend your money....as would I. It is the same on a national level, as it should be.

Tax cuts don't cause bubble. Reckless spending and monetary policy does.

 

[Ashful]

You are looking at the spending numbers without pointing out how they relate to GDP. As GDP grows, so does government spending .

Looking at historical Federal spending as % of GDP, like the St. Louis Fed does here, you can see that spending is holding a tight range and not moving much beyond that range.

View attachment 228809

You make it sound like Federal spending is out of control when it is not. It is well within historical range, providing the services that help keep society safe, stable and prospering. It is the same Federal government that has overseen the greatest economic growth, technological advances and wealth creation in human history.

This is an interesting point, and I think it has some validity. But you conclude that it is “holding a tight range and not moving much”, when your graph clearly shows otherwise. It has run 20% - 25% of GDP for the last ten years, but it ran 4% - 10% up to WW2, and then 15% - 20% thru the primary Cold War years (1950 - 1980). So, spending over the last ten years, even as your fraction of GDP, is 3x - 5x higher than pre-WW2 and 20% - 30% higher than any time in the last 70 years, excepting a few years in the Reagan era.

Your conclusion doesn’t agree with the data you provided to support it.

 

[bholler]

At any point in time, you can overpay your IRS tax bill and refuse any returns. If you did, do you think it would make a difference? I would think you would rather spend your money where you would like to spend your money....as would I. It is the same on a national level, as it should be.

Tax cuts don't cause bubble. Reckless spending and monetary policy does.

I am just telling you what has happened the last couple times we have had tax cuts. Make what ever excuses you want but that is what has happened. Why do you think it will be different this time?

 

[bholler]

It absolutely is out of control. When your government is dropping $1M bombs to kill a guy in a desert that makes $1/day, then delivering entire skids of $100 bills to say "sorry", then the pentagon 'loses' hundreds of billions with zero accountability...you got a problem.

Couple of points.
1) GDP increases with government spending. Government spending makes GDP increase, as the spending of tax money to buy anything is spending.
2) As the capitalist machine makes more money making goods, exporting goods, why does that mean the government needs to spend more? Let's say I make sneakers. Last year I made 100M sneakers. This year I hire 20 more employees and make 200M sneakers. How exactly did the government help me make sneakers?
3) The federal government didn't foster growth in the economy like some grandfatherly figure that helps private enterprise. I don't know where you create these ideas from. The federal government does nothing but stagnate growth by wrapping everything in expense, red tape, and overly burdensome regulations. Individuals have thrived by sheer grit and determination despite government regulation/taxation, not because of it.

The founding fathers created guidelines for a government that has fostered an incredible country. However, they created a very, very limited government...which is not what we have today.

So you think you could make and distribute those sneakers without public roads. And dont you think you might get robbed of all of your sneakees or profits without police? The list goes on and on. Without the govt the capitalist system would collapse

 

[Ashful]

So you think you could make and distribute those sneakers without public roads. And dont you think you might get robbed of all of your sneakees or profits without police? The list goes on and on. Without the govt the capitalist system would collapse

This is a good answer, but sportbikerider78 may have asked the wrong question. The facilities of which you speak are managed and funded at the local and state level. Almost all roads, bridges, airports, and transit systems in the U.S. are owned by state and local governments. This leaves the Interstates, but this infrastructure is paid for mostly through user-related taxes and fees such as fuel taxes, not your federal income tax.

And of course, the police keeping your factory and profits safe are funded at local and state levels, there is minimal involvement of the Federal budget.

It would be a more obtuse reference required, to relate the federal government’s budget, esp. on foreign wars, to the profits and employment of his supposed sneaker factory.

 

[bholler]

This is a good answer, but sportbikerider78 may have asked the wrong question. The facilities of which you speak are managed and funded at the local and state level. Almost all roads, bridges, airports, and transit systems in the U.S. are owned by state and local governments. This leaves the Interstates, but this infrastructure is paid for mostly through user-related taxes and fees such as fuel taxes, not your federal income tax.

And of course, the police keeping your factory and profits safe are funded at local and state levels, there is minimal involvement of the Federal budget.

It would be a more obtuse reference required, to relate the federal government’s budget, esp. on foreign wars, to the profits and employment of his supposed sneaker factory.

You make a good point there but there are plenty of other examples where govt funding make it possible for companies to operate. I am not defending the federal overspending by either party. They are both clearly out of control. I am just pointing out that in the past tax cuts have not helped the economy or the american people in the long run.

 

[bholler]

And no our spending on foreign wars helps no one but defense contractors.

 

[Ashful]

And no our spending on foreign wars helps no one but defense contractors.

I have mixed feelings about this. If we look at this honestly, war is an increadible financial and technology incentivizor. Much of our bleeding-edge technology is driven by weaponry and defense spending, I work for a tech company that serves this industry, and nothing demonstrates this point better than the space race of the 1960’s. We are still benefitting from the enormous advancements in materials engineering, developed as part of that effort, which may have taken decades longer without that incentive.

Even today’s proton colliders, such as the European Spallation Source, are only made possible by leveraging on technology developments originally paid for thru military and defense programs. These technologies are driving so many industries that you might not associate with theoretical or quantum physics, such as medicine and medical, and it wouldn’t exist today without someone having previously spent billions of dollars to build better bombs.

 

[bholler]

I have mixed feelings about this. If we look at this honestly, war is an increadible financial and technology incentivizor. Much of our bleeding-edge technology is driven by weaponry and defense spending, I work for a tech company that serves this industry, and nothing demonstrates this point better than the space race of the 1960’s. We are still benefitting from the enormous advancements in materials engineering, developed as part of that effort, which may have taken decades longer without that incentive.

Even today’s proton colliders, such as the European Spallation Source, are only made possible by leveraging on technology developments originally paid for thru military and defense programs. These technologies are driving so many industries that you might not associate with theoretical or quantum physics, such as medicine and medical, and it wouldn’t exist today without someone having previously spent billions of dollars to build better bombs.

You are right i should have said spending on these wars. There clearly have been many benificial things that have come from defense spending. I typed before thinking.

 

[Ashful]

What really worries me, if we’re on this subject, is whether we are doing the best job of preparing for dramatic changes that technology are bringing our way. Similar to the way automation replaced countless manufacturing jobs in the 1970’s, Artificial Intelligence is going to replace countless white collar jobs over the next two or three decades, including my own job. I already see the value of the advanced skills and knowledge I acquired and developed during the course of my graduate studies being eroded by new software, that quickly completes complex tasks that required employers to pay me very handsomely. That will only accelerate.

China, with state controlled and condensed effort, is in a position to swamp our autonomous network of business and technology development. I foresee a day, perhaps during my own lifetime, when the tables turn in our current relationship, of who serves who.

This will be very disruptive for folks who worked hard to place their kids in positions that align well with our current values and professional value assumptions, once obsolete. Imagine putting your kid thru school to be an engineer, only to find most of the technical problems that previously required an engineer are now solved by a computer. It’s not just science fiction anymore.

 

[vinny11950]

What really worries me, if we’re on this subject, is whether we are doing the best job of preparing for dramatic changes that technology are bringing our way. Similar to the way automation replaced countless manufacturing jobs in the 1970’s, Artificial Intelligence is going to replace countless white collar jobs over the next two or three decades, including my own job. I already see the value of the advanced skills and knowledge I acquired and developed during the course of my graduate studies being eroded by new software, that quickly completes complex tasks that required employers to pay me very handsomely. That will only accelerate.

China, with state controlled and condensed effort, is in a position to swamp our autonomous network of business and technology development. I foresee a day, perhaps during my own lifetime, when the tables turn in our current relationship, of who serves who.

This will be very disruptive for folks who worked hard to place their kids in positions that align well with our current values and professional value assumptions, once obsolete. Imagine putting your kid thru school to be an engineer, only to find most of the technical problems that previously required an engineer are now solved by a computer. It’s not just science fiction anymore.

It is a challenge, but like before, we find other ways to spend our money creating industry that we haven't even imagined yet.

What worries me is sentient AI eventually deciding it's better without us. I was reading an article on Quantum computing that said Quantum computers can do billions of calculations in a few seconds, while humans, well, we don't match up. That's the next arms race if you will, different countries are racing to build an AI that will give them an advantage over other countries. But what if something goes wrong? By the time we figure it out, the Quantum AI is billions of calculations and decisions ahead of us. Skynet any one?

On the bright side, we don't have to worry about the deficit anymore

 

[Doug MacIVER]

It is a challenge, but like before, we find other ways to spend our money creating industry that we haven't even imagined yet.

What worries me is sentient AI eventually deciding it's better without us. I was reading an article on Quantum computing that said Quantum computers can do billions of calculations in a few seconds, while humans, well, we don't match up. That's the next arms race if you will, different countries are racing to build an AI that will give them an advantage over other countries. But what if something goes wrong? By the time we figure it out, the Quantum AI is billions of calculations and decisions ahead of us. Skynet any one?

On the bright side, we don't have to worry about the deficit anymore

 

[sportbikerider78]

I am just telling you what has happened the last couple times we have had tax cuts. Make what ever excuses you want but that is what has happened. Why do you think it will be different this time?

and the issue is spending. Not tax cuts.

 

[sportbikerider78]

What really worries me, if we’re on this subject, is whether we are doing the best job of preparing for dramatic changes that technology are bringing our way. Similar to the way automation replaced countless manufacturing jobs in the 1970’s, Artificial Intelligence is going to replace countless white collar jobs over the next two or three decades, including my own job. I already see the value of the advanced skills and knowledge I acquired and developed during the course of my graduate studies being eroded by new software, that quickly completes complex tasks that required employers to pay me very handsomely. That will only accelerate.

China, with state controlled and condensed effort, is in a position to swamp our autonomous network of business and technology development. I foresee a day, perhaps during my own lifetime, when the tables turn in our current relationship, of who serves who.

This will be very disruptive for folks who worked hard to place their kids in positions that align well with our current values and professional value assumptions, once obsolete. Imagine putting your kid thru school to be an engineer, only to find most of the technical problems that previously required an engineer are now solved by a computer. It’s not just science fiction anymore.

This may be true in the programming/IT world, but in manufacturing, someone designs the machines, someone maintains them, someone services the facility...ect. We are a very, very long way off from a factory that does not require significant, technical oversight....by very smart people. Even in the situations where there are 'lights out' facilities, they are only making a component, not an assembly.

Behind every automated machine (for a very specific task), is an entire industry and company that manufactures that machine. Often times all we see when we look down (say an automotive assembly line), is the robots doing a ton of work that was done by people. It is true, the welder is no longer doing resistance welds on the line, but there are thousands of people that support one of those robots, from design, manufacturing, integration, quality, sales, electronics manufacturing, servos, servo drives, cabling, cable tracks, PLC's, VFD's, coolant pumps, pneumatics, safety equipment.....ect.

Technology does indeed change the way we plan for our next job. There is a big reason I got out of engineering/operations management and into automation sales.

 

[vinny11950]

This may be true in the programming/IT world, but in manufacturing, someone designs the machines, someone maintains them, someone services the facility...ect. We are a very, very long way off from a factory that does not require significant, technical oversight....by very smart people. Even in the situations where there are 'lights out' facilities, they are only making a component, not an assembly.

Behind every automated machine (for a very specific task), is an entire industry and company that manufactures that machine. Often times all we see when we look down (say an automotive assembly line), is the robots doing a ton of work that was done by people. It is true, the welder is no longer doing resistance welds on the line, but there are thousands of people that support one of those robots, from design, manufacturing, integration, quality, sales, electronics manufacturing, servos, servo drives, cabling, cable tracks, PLC's, VFD's, coolant pumps, pneumatics, safety equipment.....ect.

Technology does indeed change the way we plan for our next job. There is a big reason I got out of engineering/operations management and into automation sales.

The bigger issue is that automation is putting lower skilled workers out of work. And automation is just going to keep climbing the skills ladder. So if an area has 100 jobs available and 50 of those jobs are lower skilled jobs, and they get replaced by machines what are the 50 people supposed to do? Even if they acquire more skills, the higher skilled jobs are already taken. Basically we are putting a big segment of the population out of work to automate. Eventually new jobs get created in new industries, but that happens in the long run, and not soon enough to help the people that got replaced by robots. By then they will have lost whatever savings they had, maybe even their homes. It almost sounds like a big, fat jobs retraining program from the Federal government should be made available to the people displaced by automation paid for by an automation tax.

 

[vinny11950]

and the issue is spending. Not tax cuts.

This is a good article on the policy choices of the last 10 years. The conclusion, backed up by a lot of data, is that we didn't spend enough coming out of the 2008 recession. More stimulus programs would have helped more people, and, more importantly, would have raised GDP higher.

http://theweek.com/articles/789956/biggest-policy-mistake-last-decade

 

[Ashful]

This may be true in the programming/IT world, but in manufacturing, someone designs the machines, someone maintains them, someone services the facility...ect. We are a very, very long way off from a factory that does not require significant, technical oversight....by very smart people. Even in the situations where there are 'lights out' facilities, they are only making a component, not an assembly.

Behind every automated machine (for a very specific task), is an entire industry and company that manufactures that machine. Often times all we see when we look down (say an automotive assembly line), is the robots doing a ton of work that was done by people. It is true, the welder is no longer doing resistance welds on the line, but there are thousands of people that support one of those robots, from design, manufacturing, integration, quality, sales, electronics manufacturing, servos, servo drives, cabling, cable tracks, PLC's, VFD's, coolant pumps, pneumatics, safety equipment.....ect.

Technology does indeed change the way we plan for our next job. There is a big reason I got out of engineering/operations management and into automation sales.

If you had written this 20 years ago, you’d have been mostly right. I used to work in automation, specifically robotic vision systems, and then high-accuracy pick and place for fiber optic components. That’s old hat, and not what I am talking about here.

The design of complex circuits and devices is the next phase of automation, thru AI, and it’s not nearly as far off as you assume. Assuming you were born in 1978, you’ll be seeing this during your working lifetime. Whereas you needed an EE to design complex circuits in the past, BSEE’s are now often writing design rules to feed to a circuit synthesizer, especially in the realm of digital circuits and microprocessors. That will only continue to trickle down.

I come from a long line of engineers, at least 4 generations that I know, and perhaps farther back than that. But I’m not sure I’ll advise my kids to go into engineering. The social and tech changes I foresee during their lifetimes are so potentially disruptive, that it makes it very hard to assume they’ll be doing the type of work classically attributed to engineers.

Servos, PLC’s, VFD’s, cable track... all great technology of the 1970s. You need to advance your perspective, by 50 years!

 

[sportbikerider78]

Servos, PLC’s, VFD’s, cable track... all great technology of the 1970s. You need to advance your perspective, by 50 years!

Most factories are at least 10-20 years behind the times.

That tech is the more simple motion side..but what do you think keeps a paper mill, printing press or automotive assembly line running? If you have a 500hp motor driving a massive hydraulic press....there's only a few ways to do that.

I'm also an engineer....I work in sales, not R&D (thank God), so I get to go into lots of factories. You may be surprised how many are still run with relay logic and simple sensors. They have barely even started using PLC's, let along programming an energy saving profile for a large motor to start using a nice VFD.
Most factories that aren't very high volume have almost zero semi-automation and almost none have total automation, in any part of a factory. In the past, without high volume, you can't justify the cost. Now the cost is coming down and a simple SCARA robot can be had for $13-18k.

 

[bholler]

and the issue is spending. Not tax cuts.

That doesnt explain why had pretty serious down turns in the economy after the reagan and bush tax cuts. I agree over spending is most of the problem. But there is clearly a cause and effect between those tax cuts and the following economic downturns.

 

[sportbikerider78]

The bigger issue is that automation is putting lower skilled workers out of work. And automation is just going to keep climbing the skills ladder. So if an area has 100 jobs available and 50 of those jobs are lower skilled jobs, and they get replaced by machines what are the 50 people supposed to do? Even if they acquire more skills, the higher skilled jobs are already taken. Basically we are putting a big segment of the population out of work to automate. Eventually new jobs get created in new industries, but that happens in the long run, and not soon enough to help the people that got replaced by robots. By then they will have lost whatever savings they had, maybe even their homes. It almost sounds like a big, fat jobs retraining program from the Federal government should be made available to the people displaced by automation paid for by an automation tax.

Where did all the secretaries go when we got computers?
Were did all the loggers go when we started using emails instead of paper?
Where did the cobblers go when we started buying sneakers?
Where did the gas station attendant go we got automated credit card pumps?
Where did the taxi drivers go when we got Uber?

Do you really think this is a logical line of thinking?
All of these improvements have freed up an immeasurable amount of money for the consumer. Money to spend on things we don't even know will exist, that will drive an industry that hasn't been created.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

If you had written this 20 years ago, you’d have been mostly right. I used to work in automation, specifically robotic vision systems, and then high-accuracy pick and place for fiber optic components. That’s old hat, and not what I am talking about here.

The design of complex circuits and devices is the next phase of automation, thru AI, and it’s not nearly as far off as you assume. Assuming you were born in 1978, you’ll be seeing this during your working lifetime. Whereas you needed an EE to design complex circuits in the past, BSEE’s are now often writing design rules to feed to a circuit synthesizer, especially in the realm of digital circuits and microprocessors. That will only continue to trickle down.

I come from a long line of engineers, at least 4 generations that I know, and perhaps farther back than that. But I’m not sure I’ll advise my kids to go into engineering. The social and tech changes I foresee during their lifetimes are so potentially disruptive, that it makes it very hard to assume they’ll be doing the type of work classically attributed to engineers.

Servos, PLC’s, VFD’s, cable track... all great technology of the 1970s. You need to advance your perspective, by 50 years!

Tell you kids, med school. Podiatry! With the fall of high quality shoe making, from generic world wide last, the almost complete collapse of welt shoe mfg by exact widths, rise cement and flat lasted foot wear. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/podiatrists.htm.

 

[bholler]

Where did all the secretaries go when we got computers?
Were did all the loggers go when we started using emails instead of paper?
Where did the cobblers go when we started buying sneakers?
Where did the gas station attendant go we got automated credit card pumps?
Where did the taxi drivers go when we got Uber?

Do you really think this is a logical line of thinking?
All of these improvements have freed up an immeasurable amount of money for the consumer. Money to spend on things we don't even know will exist, that will drive an industry that hasn't been created.

Yes but if those consumers lost their jobs because of those advances or are stuck in min wage or low paying jobs because there is nothing else available there is no money to be freed up. You can make all of the conjecture you want but your statements simply are not backed up by the data.

 

[Ashful]

Most factories are at least 10-20 years behind the times.

Definitely, you are right on that. And that helps ease the skills transition, for folks caught in the middle, if they’re young and ambitious enough to see it coming and develop proficiency in a new skill. Nothing new, we’ve been there before, it’s just that this time it’ll be more white collar folk.

I guess my first exposure to this was more than 20 years ago, interviewing for a role as a design verification engineer at a semiconductor manfucturing company. Whereas I had assumed this would be the act of verifying designs, that company had already advanced into the area of programming computers to do that job, and I was interviewing for the role of creating those design rules. I wouldn’t be surprised if today AI is even serving that function, looking at product yields and generating its own design rules to compensate and manage those yields.

I'm also an engineer....I work in sales, not R&D (thank God)

Come to the dark side. :evil grin:

Now the cost is coming down and a simple SCARA robot can be had for $13-18k.

That’s amazing. I used to design gantry systems, for cases when SCARAs could not meet our placement tolerance requirements, so I was familiar with them 15-20 years ago. My wife was in the division that used the SCARAs, we got everything they couldn’t do.

Tell you kids, med school. Podiatry!

With the government having injected themselves into the management of our doctor/patient financial relationship, I am not sure I could recommend that today. I’ve seen friends kill themselves to get thru med school, and today they’re not “realizing the dream” they had planned for themselves, in the pre-Obamacare era. This doesn’t apply to all areas of medicine, but one does not always get to pick and choose their residency opportunities, when they get to that point.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

Tell you kids, med school. Podiatry! With the fall of high quality shoe making, from generic world wide last, the almost complete collapse of welt shoe mfg by exact widths, rise cement and flat lasted foot wear. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/podiatrists.htm.

Tell me about it ,im waiting 7 months to see a foot specialist. I could be on crutches by that time. Must be a big shortage of these people or the boomers are overwhelming them or also possibly Geisinger medical is just too damn cheap to hire more.

 

[Doug MacIVER]

I guess if you have read some of my posts you know I come from an old Mfg. family. The best way to describe my factory is the we are a dinosaur! This weeks production included wire face shields (yes used by chain saw folks), 7 0z. leather cases used for Badge cases in the NYS prison system, 4" X 108" foam for horse leg wraps,Kiwi heel taps packaging, 50' x 50 mm Pneumatic lifter gaskets, fullfillment for a Chinese flooring Mfgr, head gear for orthodontists. pretty wide group of industries, all because of the small size, need HANDS. If any of you have watched how NFL footballs are made that is my factory>. It is also a USA factory, Mlb on the other hand? Domestic leather mf'd on ADA,OH.
Until 3d can take natural stuff and produce a 3d product you still need HANDS. In long run maybe we should keep as many workin as possable!

last two Shoe mfg'ers left in Mass. High end running shoes at New Balence and ALDEN shoe,high.high ,high end Men's dress. Alden will last you a life time if you can find a cobbler or use their rebuild service? Keep in mind these are real cordovan? $$$$$$$$$749.00$$$$$$