I conducted an interesting experiment last winter. Adapting a proper flue to our old smoke dragon insert proved too difficult, ultimately because the insert's 5 x 15" outlet was overlaping the lintel by ~ 1". So I put a pair of $40 electric radiators in the room. These things run a 600W element, a 900W element, or both, for 2000, 3000, or 5000btu. Most days, I ran the 2 heaters @ 3000btu for a total of 6000btu. Guess what. This kept the room in the low 60's, which is all the smoke dragon ever did unless I shoveled wood into it on a cold night when the draft was good. Looking back now, I'm not surprised by the dragon's relatively poor performance. . .typical "slammer" install into an exterior chimney. I guesstimate it was running ~ 30% efficiency. What did surprise me was that 5000 - 10000btu was an adequate amount of heat most of the time, probably because I left them on almost continuously, so the house was always preloaded with some heat. So I got to thinking, and reading, and thinking some more. . .
You will likely find it is a bit more than you expect. As you said, the heat loss is a function of the differential between where the heat is and where it is going (i.e. hot to cold side) which then is slowed by how it is being transferred (whatever is in the way insulation etc can slow it down). If you hold the insulation etc constant (don't upgrade) and the outside temperatures are on average the same (doubtful, but perhaps close enough?) year to year you may get a useful result. But in the end you will simply have more numbers.