How hot was it?

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begreen

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
104,721
South Puget Sound, WA
In the words of several climate specialists, September's global temperature rise was mindboggling.
“This month was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist – absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,”

apnews.com

September sizzled to records and was so much warmer than average scientists call it 'mind-blowing'

After a record-smashing hot summer, Earth's warming somehow got even worse in September. The European climate agency says temperatures last month set a new mark for how far above normal they hit.
apnews.com apnews.com

Here are the Sept 2023 results from the JRA-55 database. Not good news.

JRA-55 2023 temps.png
 
I get the point of graphs like this. We do live in a time where there are some people (mostly in the US, Russia and Yemen) who doubt that Global Warming is real and caused by human activity.

But I also talk to young people, and a lot of them are doomers over this. I don't think that is constructive. I was born in 1968 in a mini baby bust that was brought on by doomerism related to pollution and the population explosion. The birthrate in the US is lower today than it was then.

When I say doomerism, I mean an attitude that it no longer matters what choices we make, bc its too late, or too little or both.

I also think that the same media that ignored global warming 10 years ago as boring or irrelevant, is now happily selling climate doom clicks to doomer inclined viewers. They went from 'irrelevant' to 'doom' directly without ever, I dunno, thinking about educating the population about the science, or the engineering and public policy approach to solutions. Cover the IRA, a US solution to this big story? Naw, that's boring and irrelevant AND not big enough to solve the problem anyway (doom, doom, doom).

If the IRA gets overturned by the next president? THAT would be a (political) story, and be worth covering, without even saying what the IRA IS in the first place.

Sorry for the rant.... LOL

In reality, global warming is a VERY slow moving story. Slower than watching paint dry. For decades. Both problems and solutions move the slope of this super slow trend by minute amounts. The climate in 2023 is **in reality** not that different than the climate in 2022. Or rather what could be called the 'climate forcing'.

What happens is that there are oscillations, like El Nino/La Nina. So when you look at a global temp trend line year to year, some years it goes up faster than trend, sometimes less fast than trend (or regresses). In the past, deniers have cherry picked those flat or regression trend points to argue that there IS NO TREND. Folks concerned about global warming highlighting the faster than trend periods is not different. Are we helping the cause by education, or are we looking for clicks with cherry picked data?

I will make a prediction. The global average temp in 2024 will come in BELOW the curve in 2023. And 2025 might as well.
 
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That's an optimistic prediction, but possible. I agree that the planet's future does not hang on a single graph line. But it is unprecedented and disturbing. I hope you are right, but that does not reverse a larger trend. This is not an insignificant bump. The loss of sea ice at both poles and glacial coverage in most major mountains is reducing the albedo effect. Dynamic systems like boreal forests are failing and unable to keep up with the rapid heating. Permafrost melt is accelerating. The negative feedback loop accelerates as a result. With carbon emissions increasing instead of the reverse, the long-term horizon is not good unless there is a major shift in the industrial world. So far the worst offenders are not improving things fast enough. Call me skeptical, but I don't see the political will in the US, England, India, Russia, and the developing world to bring about the changes needed in a timely fashion.
 
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Hmm, the black bar jumped up further than the other bars ever did. Then I look at the variation. That's like 1 degree F. Hmm that's nothing. But yet, it feels much warmer and winters here keep sucking for snow. So maybe peaks arent going too bonkers to take notice but what about avg temps and sustained higher than normal temps. Maybe that would tell a much better picture than someone looking at a graph thinking, why are people worried about a 1d F change. I remember about 10 years ago (wow it's been that long) I was snowboarding in Feb with shorts on. I thought, wow this is insane. It was like 80 degrees. The snow was like glue. Miserable. Then we had another hot winter. Rain, and several weeks with days that I turned the AC on. Then for a few years, it got super cold again. Colder than normal by far and it snowed alot. Now, we are back to (last 5 years maybe) of warm temps , no snow. And it's worse than ever.
 
That's a bit less than 1º centigrade, on a global basis. An unprecedented, non-trivial jump.
 
How real are the data? I was looking for how many millimeters of water there was between May and June, that it rained for 1 month, and I found 0.1 millimeters I don't know if anyone is manipulating
 
Mirco22 said:
How real are the data? I was looking for how many millimeters of water there was between May and June, that it rained for 1 month, and I found 0.1 millimeters I don't know if anyone is manipulating
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From what I can tell, the JRA-55 database is considered a top standard.

JRA-55 project

JRA-55 : the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA) Project [The second Japanese reanalysis project conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which cover the period from 1958 onward.]
jra.kishou.go.jp jra.kishou.go.jp
 
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begreen said:
That's an optimistic prediction, but possible. I agree that the planet's future does not hang on a single graph line. But it is unprecedented and disturbing. I hope you are right, but that does not reverse a larger trend. This is not an insignificant bump. The loss of sea ice at both poles and glacial coverage in most major mountains is reducing the albedo effect. Dynamic systems like boreal forests are failing and unable to keep up with the rapid heating. Permafrost melt is accelerating. The negative feedback loop accelerates as a result. With carbon emissions increasing instead of the reverse, the long-term horizon is not good unless there is a major shift in the industrial world. So far the worst offenders are not improving things fast enough. Call me skeptical, but I don't see the political will in the US, England, India, Russia, and the developing world to bring about the changes needed in a timely fashion.
Click to expand...

I think you mean 'positive feedback loops'. :)

The overall climate system has net large negative feedback loops, with a few small positive feedbacks superimposed. This is why we are not Venus, nor has the Earth frozen over since life got big 600 millions years ago. There is no 'tipping point' for the entire climate system, even if there are for local systems, like a forest burning down, or an ice sheet melting.

It seems to me that there are variations in that graph that are comparable to what we are seeing in 2023, just on a lower baseline. And the fact that we are having a humdinger of an El Nino this year (after years of La Nina) is NOT a coincidence. The global temp record was predicted in the spring.

Also, we know that the Rossby waves in the atmosphere are slowing down, which makes fluctuations more extreme. So if the global variations are getting larger, this would not be a shock. But that is still different than the baseline jumping in one year.

From my POV, the political will IS doing its thing in the EU, US, and India. China is a mixed bag, and Russia, forget about it. The UK is well ahead of us.
 
Yes, :rolleyes: I positively missed that one and was stuck in a negative loop. ;em

You are also correct about the UK is way ahead of us in many areas but I was thinking about the opening up of more oil field drilling just announced. Japan, Germany, S. Korea, Australia, and Canada have higher C02 emissions per capita according to this info:
www.worldometers.info

CO2 Emissions per Capita - Worldometer

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions per Capita for each Country in the world
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
apnews.com

Britain approves new North Sea oil drilling in welcome news for the industry but not activists

Britain has given the go-ahead for a major oil and gas project in the North Sea, ignoring warnings from scientists and the United Nations that countries must stop developing new fossil fuel resources if the world is to avoid catastrophic climate change.
apnews.com apnews.com
 
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As has been pointed out by knowledgable folks here, the decline rate of existing oil wells is faster than the projected rate of decline in oil use in a 2°C scenario... which implies that new wells will have to be drilled to 'manage the decline' in oil use. Given that global oil use has not yet peaked... there will be drilling.

This is ofc demand side reduction thinking, not supply side reduction which a few more activist people favor.
 
begreen said:
From what I can tell, the JRA-55 database is considered a top standard.

JRA-55 project

JRA-55 : the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA) Project [The second Japanese reanalysis project conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which cover the period from 1958 onward.]
jra.kishou.go.jp jra.kishou.go.jp
Click to expand...
if you have a minute can you tell me rainfall in May, June and July 2023 in Busso city 86010 zip code Campobasso province I am unable to use that site😂
 
woodgeek said:
As has been pointed out by knowledgable folks here, the decline rate of existing oil wells is faster than the projected rate of decline in oil use in a 2°C scenario... which implies that new wells will have to be drilled to 'manage the decline' in oil use. Given that global oil use has not yet peaked... there will be drilling.

This is ofc demand side reduction thinking, not supply side reduction which a few more activist people favor.
Click to expand...
They are not going to give up their golden cow easily. As transportation oil demand slumps, they are shifting to supply different consumers, the first of which is plastics. New refineries are going up in less or unregulated third world countries in SE Asia.
 
20,000 years ago, where I live in CT, was covered by a Glacier 4 - 6 KM thick. No humans where here driving cars and burning coal, but it warmed up all on its own. We are in what climatologist call an Inter-glacial period. In other words a warm period between two Ice ages.
Yes the world is getting warmer, primarily because the Sun. Check out this article
https://www.realclearinvestigations...fled_by_societys_top_institutions_978511.html
 
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He may be a quantum physicist but he doesn't know squat about climate science. Clauser has never published any peer-reviewed climate science research but he has made several climate-related claims which are simply wrong. He makes these wild claims without any supporting evidence. This may help him make some retirement money on the denialist circuit as a fake expert, but at best he's a crank and a cynical one at that.
 
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