Looks like CA drew the line on ICE engines 2035

[Ashful]

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck...

… it’s a witch?

 

[SpaceBus]

… it’s a witch?

View attachment 298646

This is the best possible response.







EVs are the witch for anyone that is confused.

 

[begreen]

Massachusetts just joined in banning gas or diesel ICE car sales in 2035.

 

[EbS-P]

Massachusetts just joined in banning gas or diesel ICE car sales in 2035.

If it’s like CA’s and allows plug in hybrid I think it’s possible. Toyota make sitting pretty. Does anyone also have a plug-in hybrid for the large suv or 1/2 ton truck?

 

[SpaceBus]

Volvo is testing a lot of PHEV and BEV stuff for industrial use. There's a test quarry somewhere in Europe with a bunch of prototypes and it is saving huge amounts of carbon and money.

 

[woodgeek]

2035 is about 3 generations of EV from now. I wouldn't want to predict what BEV offerings are available then.

Also, the nature of these things is usually to be either (1) unnecessary by the time they occur or (2) delayed when they arrive if the bite is too hard.

This whole thing is 'signaling' and nothing more. Wake me up in 2034.

 

[SpaceBus]

2035 is about 3 generations of EV from now. I wouldn't want to predict what BEV offerings are available then.

Also, the nature of these things is usually to be either (1) unnecessary by the time they occur or (2) delayed when they arrive if the bite is too hard.

This whole thing is 'signaling' and nothing more. Wake me up in 2034.

The adoption curve very clearly outpaces all of the mandates, signaling indeed. Perhaps these states are trying to capitalize on the new legislation that only rewards domestically produced EV/PHEV and draw manufacturing back to their states.

 

[begreen]

I didn't see any provision for hybrids in the article, but they may be in the actual act. The incentive for EV purchasing gets a hefty boost on top of the Federal tax credit too.

I'll post a link to the article in a separate thread because it affects a lot more than just cars.

 

[begreen]

The AP reports that 17 other states are considering similar mandates. WA, MA, NY, VT & OR most likely will adopt the CA law, but the decision is harder for some other states.

17 states weigh adopting California's electric car mandate

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Seventeen states with vehicle emission standards tied to rules established in California face weighty decisions on whether to follow that state's strictest-in-the nation new rules that require all new cars, pickups and SUVs to be electric or hydrogen powered by 2035.

apnews.com

 

[EbS-P]

And the other colored states?? I just don’t see our state legislature doing anything. The IRA money given to states for incentives will be interesting how that is distributed and managed.

May the auto Industry leads the green revolution but I think they make too much money on big V8 trucks.

 

[woodgeek]

Well, the heat wave in California is over... and I saw this:

California Leaders Credit Cellphone Alert for Sudden Conservation (Published 2022)

The jarring message warned millions of residents that blackouts could occur without immediate action.

www.nytimes.com

Apparently, the utility developed an 'amber alert' type notification that could blast out to everyone's cell-phone. They used it for the first time, and it worked. Statewide demand dropped by 2.6 Gigawatts over the next 20-40 minutes, avoiding a blackout.

While useful, they don't plan on using this very often... convinced that people will start to ignore it if they try.

 

[begreen]

The heatwave is not over, more to come. It's expected to cool down a little, but it is still very hot. We may get up to 90 by the weekend here. Wildfires are the big concern now.

California manages unprecedented power demand as historic heat wave in West enters 4th day

A record September heat wave is continuing to broil parts of the West and Southwest as parts of California approach 116 degrees with little relief in sight.

www.foxweather.com

Scariest part of the NorCal heat wave could be yet to come

A prolonged heat wave in Northern California sucked the moisture from the vegetation on the ground. This could lead to devastating wildfires.

www.sfgate.com

 

[EbS-P]

Well, the heat wave in California is over... and I saw this:

California Leaders Credit Cellphone Alert for Sudden Conservation (Published 2022)

The jarring message warned millions of residents that blackouts could occur without immediate action.

www.nytimes.com

Apparently, the utility developed an 'amber alert' type notification that could blast out to everyone's cell-phone. They used it for the first time, and it worked. Statewide demand dropped by 2.6 Gigawatts over the next 20-40 minutes, avoiding a blackout.

While useful, they don't plan on using this very often... convinced that people will start to ignore it if they try.

I don’t see why load interruption devices are not more common. Easy to install. Once the network is established the utility can self manage load with local precision. I signed up as soon as it was available.

 

[SpaceBus]

We have gotten fairly lucky with mold in our garden, a serious forest fire season in North America would be devastating. Earlier this year Siberia was on track to have the worst fire season possibly ever.

 

[begreen]

We have gotten fairly lucky with mold in our garden, a serious forest fire season in North America would be devastating. Earlier this year Siberia was on track to have the worst fire season possibly ever.

It's definitely a big concern for the west. We are tinder dry and some really big fires have broken out in hard to manage locations.
Siberian wildfires were really bad last year too. The area is so vast and wild that some fires are very hard to access.

 

[SpaceBus]

It's definitely a big concern for the west. We are tinder dry and some really big fires have broken out in hard to manage locations.
Siberian wildfires were really bad last year too. The area is so vast and wild that some fires are very hard to access.

It's also not just forests, but peat and grassland fires as well. Even though we are so far away, the smoke still made it out here last year. Between the reduction in sunlight and the spores in the smoke, our garden was hit hard. This year has been a struggle with the powdery mildew and our squash. Normally the summers here are dry with a rain shower once or twice a week, but we had many weeks with days long fog and mist. Which is in itself not unusual, during the spring and fall.

 

[Ashful]

Well, on the plus side... if you're in the middle of a vasectomy when the power goes out, you might be happy to be driving a BEV.

Rivian Electric Pickup Powers Vasectomy During Texas Outage

A urologist plugged into the Rivian to unplug his patient's... you know.

www.motortrend.com

 

[begreen]

It's interesting to note that at least in WA state, plug-in hybrids will still be allowed to be sold after 2035 as long as they have at least a 50 mile range on the battery. Looks like our Volt qualifies though it's unlikely many will be around by then. Maybe I won't be either.

Tackling the 2035 electric vehicle conundrum

Soundside producer Jason Burrows sits down with host Libby Denkmann to discuss the pros and cons of moving away from gas powered vehicles by 2035.

kuow.org

 

[Vg3200p]

My personal opinion on this differs from most. Looks up pictures of battery mines. They look like a nuke went off. I'm not against battery but I am against a mandate. It will cripple this country. The poor will get poorer as they can't afford to buy a bev. So how do they get to work? Our electrical grid cannot handle all this added strain. There's rolling blackouts in alot of the more "green" places as it is. These mandates cripple our economy and drive up prices for all. I think the corre t solution is to continue to develop more clean ways. Maybe event to reward company's that look into this. But never to mandate it. We need a plethora of energy options to keep our country strong. They come for your ICE now. How long before they come for your woodstove? The amount of control we have let our government have saddens me and makes me feel sick.

 

[Ashful]

The amount of control we have let our government have saddens me and makes me feel sick.

I'll agree with this last sentiment, but don't really see it applying here. Who is going to come for your ICE? Who is coming for your wood stove? When have you ever seen an example of our government coming and taking away any nearly-ubiquitous technology?

I also oppose mandates, but even in cases where they have been employed, it is typically only toward the purchase of a new item, not the maintenance of what you already own.

Batteries certainly have their problems, everything does. But any tech that resolves more acute problems than it resolves, generally becomes the way to go. Nothing is perfect, everything is a compromise, any engineer can tell you that.

You do have a valid point with regard to the grid, not with regard to BEV charging so much, but with regard to long-haul distribution. BEV charging can occur mostly overnight, managed by incentives and not mandates, to actually improve our peak/demand loading on generation. But whereas our dino-powered generation plants are located more closely to high-density population centers, minimizing long-haul issues, many new green plants (eg. wind, hydro) will need to be located where the resource is abundant. This is nearly never near maximum demand.

This will require more and larger long-haul transmission lines, which our current laws do not favor. Simply put, good luck getting private property owners and local governments in Wyoming to approve the installation of transmission lines, so that folks in California can run their air conditioning. This is where the mandates I truly fear may come, although any attempt to push this thru may come at great political expense to one party.

 

[woodgeek]

My personal opinion on this differs from most. Looks up pictures of battery mines. They look like a nuke went off. I'm not against battery but I am against a mandate. It will cripple this country. The poor will get poorer as they can't afford to buy a bev. So how do they get to work? Our electrical grid cannot handle all this added strain. There's rolling blackouts in alot of the more "green" places as it is. These mandates cripple our economy and drive up prices for all. I think the corre t solution is to continue to develop more clean ways. Maybe event to reward company's that look into this. But never to mandate it. We need a plethora of energy options to keep our country strong. They come for your ICE now. How long before they come for your woodstove? The amount of control we have let our government have saddens me and makes me feel sick.

I will echo @Ashful here and ask, where are these mandates for BEVs? I haven't seen any. A few cities and a couple states have said they will ban NEW ICE vehicle sales in 2035 or something. Even those won't keep you from buying them out of state and moving them in. Even the most rosy predictions of EV adoption have BEVs reaching 50% of new car sales in the US in 2028... and that curve implies that BEVs will make up only 20-25% of cars on the road by 2032 at most.

The transition will be SLOW. People will be driving ICE cars well in the 2040s, a generation from now.

As for cost? Every engineering analysis I have seen suggests that long-range, fast charging BEVs will be CHEAPER to buy AND to operate than ICE vehicles. They contain a lot fewer moving parts, and are faster to assemble and are much cheaper to maintain.

Those batteries? Their cost is falling exponentially, and is expected (based upon analyses with many other technologies) to fall to a small multiple (1.x) of the cost of the raw materials in them. The cost of those raw materials? Those are available in natural deposits all around the world in sufficient amounts, and so will (once they are developed) have prices comparable to historical levels... which were cheap. The projected price of batteries in a decade... cheap enough to make a long range BEV cheaper than a comparable ICE vehicle to buy. Many of them are already cheaper on a total cost of ownership, TCO, basis.

The car makers are starting the transition with their luxury models that are the highest profit, to customers that want higher performance and the latest tech. That does not mean that EVs are inherently expensive. The 2022 Chevy Bolt I drive cost me the equivalent of $24k MSRP, and I did not get a fed rebate... it will be eligible for one next year, bringing its purchase price down to closer to $20k. This is already holding down the price of used Bolts, which will also get a rebate in 2023, further reducing their price.

The grid? All those EVs will increase electrical demand by maybe 20% in 2050. Like increasing it by less that 1% a year, no problemo. And ofc most of that charging is done at low demand periods (like overnight) bc the utility offers a lower rate then, so it doesn't increase peak demand even that much. One can cherry pick examples of badly managed or corrupt grids, like in California and Mass, and say 'see green power is bad', but then there was the Texas fiasco that actually killed people (and sadly will be likely to do so again, as the problems were not addressed).

There is a lot of misinformation out there these days from a variety of sources...

 

[stoveliker]

I do like a lot of the mandates - they keep me from getting real sickness.

E.g. the mandate for clinical trials before medication is approved. The mandate for code compliant installations of equipment. The mandate for catalytic converters in cars. The mandate for redundancy in airplanes. The mandate (for the absence of) lead in gasoline. The list goes on. And yes, all these mandates were compromises too.

I don't like all mandates though - I'm not convinced of the benefits of the mandate for ethanol in gasoline. (Other than for corn farmers.) I'm also not convinced of the motorcycle helmet mandate. No one else gets hurt by not wearing one. In fact, healthcare costs seem to go down not wearing one.

 

[Vg3200p]

Of course bevs have their place. I think we should use all forms of energy. Wind water nuke coal oil battery hydrogen. I think the more diverse the better. I think the government. Is pushing it to fast. (And not because they care about environment). It makes the government money. More dependence on the grid gives them more control. I would be willing to bet they will try to ban burning wood in the next 50 yrs. Hope I'm wrong

 

[SpaceBus]

Of course bevs have their place. I think we should use all forms of energy. Wind water nuke coal oil battery hydrogen. I think the more diverse the better. I think the government. Is pushing it to fast. (And not because they care about environment). It makes the government money. More dependence on the grid gives them more control. I would be willing to bet they will try to ban burning wood in the next 50 yrs. Hope I'm wrong

The government is not forcing anything, the market has already spoken. Fossil fuels are a dying asset and the big corporations are going to squeeze every last dime out of it before moving onto greener pastures.

 

[Vg3200p]

The government is not forcing anything, the market has already spoken. Fossil fuels are a dying asset and the big corporations are going to squeeze every last dime out of it before moving onto greener pastures.

Maybe the market has spoken in certain demographics?I personally know only 1 person with a bev. I've never seen one in my town of 800 people. I'd be willing to bet less than 1% of the people I know would want bev or afford one for thar matter. I'm not against the technology. It's great if it truly pollute less. I just think diversity wins when it comes to energy and no 1 type should be forced or outlawed or mandated