Renewable energy passed another milestone in the US

[GrumpyDad]

Well, after re-reading that, I made a huge mistake when I was typing. It was Feb 20 thru March 1 that I had two days worth of production, not Jan 20 thru March 1. That typo makes all the difference in the world . Although, it still means if I thought I was trying to be off-grid, I would have had to have some extreme battery capacity.

My electric bill for March (got the bill yesterday) was zero, with a credit of $34 and some change. February's bill was $35, so I basically earned my money back.

That's AMAZING! For me I would likely never be able to get to zero as my roof is really small, and an array in the yard - wife wouldnt have it. The price for me just isnt there yet. I have some friends in the industry still who could help me get panels cheap, materials and install, but Im hoping to move here in the next few years to a single story for the wife and then use that larger roof footprint and get it installed right from the beginning of us living there. Of course, having a house facing one side due south would be great, and I have that now but the roof footprint is too small. Im an all or nothing kinda person and I wouldnt want to commit to an array on my roof that at best would get me 50% of my daily consumption on a really good day and probably 5-10% on a bad day.

 

[GrumpyDad]

I think the best way to look at it is to nibble away at energy usage. The government has given every state a big block of money to put home energy audits in place. NH and lot of other states have had these programs in place for quite awhile. The government also has keyed a lot of incentives and credits to these energy audits. They do not look at just electricity, the look at thermal and in some case water savings. Savings are ranked by payback. Sure solar panels are flashy but there are a lot of things an average person may not recognize that is slowly draining money out of their pocket. Water leaks are obvious, you hear them and see them. A typical leak that drips every 10 seconds is equal to 350 Gallons. If you have a water bill, it adds up, if you have well and pump you burn up power (if you are lucky enough to have a rare fully gravity system, your cold water is free) If the water is warm unless you have Solar Hot Water odds are you are also heating it with power or fuel. I dont think anyone is really going to miss a water leak.

The problem is heating/cooling and electric power leaks are not as easy to visualize to the average person, they do not make noise and with exception of a cold draft that is about it unless icicles appear. An energy audit is going to make things a lot more visible using a blower door test. There will be a before and after number and usually the auditor will show the homeowner an air leak or two using a smoke stick. That makes it real to many folks. I have front door I need to replace and I have been dragging my feet as "its not that bad. No look at an IR photo of that door taken on the coldest night of this past winter. It a lot easier to visualize. The darker the blue the colder is gets with the sidelight getting down to 24.6 F.

View attachment 311616

I my case its not that much money going out of my pocket but its splits of wood that are going to have to go into the boiler to reheat the storage. BTW, that is relatively modern insulated steel faced door with adjustable lower threshold with bulb seals on all four sides with a double pane outside storm door. Its also interesting to note the blue splotches in the wall where there is obviously a gap in the insulation.

With respect to solar, I started out with solar hot water panels over 20 years ago, there is better technology now but for about 9 months a year I have free hot water heating. I have a beat up solar panel that runs a DC pump so I do not even need to run a circulator pump or controls off the grid. The other three months of the year it preheats my incoming well water and I use heat from my wood boiler at the end of storage cycle to charge it up. Its fine for me, but if I needed a lot of hot water, I would have installed a heat pump hot water heater long ago to boost winter temps. I then installed a small grid tied solar array, it wasnt very big, but it noticeably reduced my electric bill in the summer and just as importantly I learned a lot of solar basics. A few year later I picked up 1.6 KW of used solar panels and built a pole mount grid tied array. My power bills went away (except for a $13 bucks a month connection fee) in the summer as I rarely need AC. A few years later Evergreen Solar went out of business and I picked up some of their post-bankruptcy panels and reconfigured the pole mount to 2KW. The old panels were sold to a couple of folks for their off grid camps and kept a few and eventually set them up to fill a water tank for watering my garden. They are more than 20 years old and still within 10% of the original rating and I think the ones I sold are still being used . About 5 years later one of the members on Hearth and Maine's long term energy guru, Tom in Maine, bought a container of panels from a company that got out of the solar business. I bought 2 KW of panels from Tom as that was what I could easily fit on the roof. I installed them myself and after that I have never had a power bill except for the connection fee for the last 6 years. I actually run a surplus and burn it off with my minisplit for heating and rarely cooling so that means less firewood to burn and process. I sell SRECs to cover my connection fee and depending on pricing, it just about covers 12 months of connection fees. Two years ago I bought a plug in Hybrid, Rav 4, I just plug it in and do not worry about the when or how often I charge it, worst case is I run the minisplit a bit less and burn a bit more wood.

All this work has been cash, no loans, no leases. Odds are most people spend more money on annual vacations than I have on renewables.

So I didnt start out to do everything all at once, I nibbled away at it. Do the easy stuff first and for most that will get them thinking that maybe its worth doing the bigger stuff. Spread that over all homeowners and it will make a dent in power demand. With the rapid drop in electric power storage cost its going to nibble away at peak power demand.

When I was young dumb and broke (still dumb, wish I was young..far from broke but not rich) I let a dripping sink exist for a couple of months. We get our water bills every 3 months here. Wow was I surprised at the increase. I couldnt pay it, so they shut my water off. Oh well, guess I'll drink beer.. oh wait I need to shower, damn.

I would love to get an energy audit. My neighbor did and wow he was constantly bombarded with people that wanted to bid to 'fix' the problems. I would just like to have it done and know what areas I need to check into then DIY it. When I insulated an expansion area that I put on, I thought I did a good job. You get really tired of insulating and maybe some pieces that need to be cut to fit arent that perfect of a fit and there's a 1" gap. That amount of cold area I can feel when I move my hand there is alarming, it's almost like a mini air conditioner is on during the winter. That's when I wish I would have splurged for spray foam, but I have zero trust in that stuff lasting, not being a habitat for critters and the chemicals. Maybe it's unfounded and traditional fiberglass insulation obviously has its own set of toxins that arent exactly safe. At the time, mid covid, I got what I could get and was happy to get it.

 

[EbS-P]

When I was young dumb and broke (still dumb, wish I was young..far from broke but not rich) I let a dripping sink exist for a couple of months. We get our water bills every 3 months here. Wow was I surprised at the increase. I couldnt pay it, so they shut my water off. Oh well, guess I'll drink beer.. oh wait I need to shower, damn.

I would love to get an energy audit. My neighbor did and wow he was constantly bombarded with people that wanted to bid to 'fix' the problems. I would just like to have it done and know what areas I need to check into then DIY it. When I insulated an expansion area that I put on, I thought I did a good job. You get really tired of insulating and maybe some pieces that need to be cut to fit arent that perfect of a fit and there's a 1" gap. That amount of cold area I can feel when I move my hand there is alarming, it's almost like a mini air conditioner is on during the winter. That's when I wish I would have splurged for spray foam, but I have zero trust in that stuff lasting, not being a habitat for critters and the chemicals. Maybe it's unfounded and traditional fiberglass insulation obviously has its own set of toxins that arent exactly safe. At the time, mid covid, I got what I could get and was happy to get it.

I wish there was a diy friend blower door rental. I mean really a big fan and a tarp you could do good enough Imagine. Do you really need your AHC 50 number you just need to know where the leaks are?? Last free one I did it was 75 outside and 75 inside no blower door no thermal camera just an IR temp gun. It was useless.

 

[GrumpyDad]

I wish there was a diy friend blower door rental. I mean really a big fan and a tarp you could do good enough Imagine. Do you really need your AHC 50 number you just need to know where the leaks are?? Last free one I did it was 75 outside and 75 inside no blower door no thermal camera just an IR temp gun. It was useless.

I have one of those red,yellow,green black and decker guns. They are pretty useless honestly. I have a laser thermometer and that could be used to pinpoint cold spots but what you really need is that thermal imaging to really see where the challenges are. I have no idea if one side of my building is allowing more cold air in because of wind, lack of insulation, etc. That's what I want.

 

[EbS-P]

I have one of those red,yellow,green black and decker guns. They are pretty useless honestly. I have a laser thermometer and that could be used to pinpoint cold spots but what you really need is that thermal imaging to really see where the challenges are. I have no idea if one side of my building is allowing more cold air in because of wind, lack of insulation, etc. That's what I want.

I have one of these. It works well.

Limited-time deal: FLIR ONE Gen 3 - iOS - Thermal Camera for Smart Phones - with MSX Image Enhancement Technology https://a.co/d/dyzDHvo

 

[GrumpyDad]

I have one of these. It works well.

Limited-time deal: FLIR ONE Gen 3 - iOS - Thermal Camera for Smart Phones - with MSX Image Enhancement Technology https://a.co/d/dyzDHvo

wow, home depot or lowes should rent these on the cheap. Talk about energy savings and using less resources, this is the type of tech that everyone needs to have available easily. That would go a long way toward helping people figure out where their energy loss is, and then figure out how much it would cost to fix the problem and how much they would save in the long run.

Very cool.

 

[EbS-P]

wow, home depot or lowes should rent these on the cheap. Talk about energy savings and using less resources, this is the type of tech that everyone needs to have available easily. That would go a long way toward helping people figure out where their energy loss is, and then figure out how much it would cost to fix the problem and how much they would save in the long run.

Very cool.

Local libraries should…

 

[woodgeek]

I have heard about both FLIRs and blower doors being available to rent, sometimes from libraries.

But haven't done it myself.... hearsay.

 

[EbS-P]

I have heard about both FLIRs and blower doors being available to rent, sometimes from libraries.

But haven't done it myself.... hearsay.

We were taking to a Raleigh NC, Public library, and that used to have a whole diy tool check out. They don’t anymore because all the tools didn’t come back.

 

[begreen]

Our electrical bills drop down to $7, the minimum charge, for the summer months and they are low typically from May - Oct. when the heat pump is not running, but the car charging is still happening.
There are interesting ways to get an array installed on a small property. One Hearth.com member built a carport shelter with the array being its roof. It could be a wood shed cover too.

 

[peakbagger]

BTW, various Home Depots rent them https://www.homedepot.com/p/rental/FLIR-COMMERCIAL-SYSTEMS-INC-Thermal-Camera-FLIR-i7/316822080 Its hit or miss, I checked to two local stores and they do not have them.

They are fairly easy to set up and use unless you want to get tricky with various options, that shot I posted was the basic screen on mine. The biggest thing is, you need to use it when there is temperature difference between the outside and the inside. As mentioned, pretty worthless if the temp inside it same a the temp outside. In most cases, home energy audits chase air infiltration as that is the lowest hanging fruit. If it gets to the point of opening up walls, it gets expensive.

BTW most state programs require professional third party auditors, if the person who does the audit is also the person selling the services be careful.

 

[Ashful]

I have heard about both FLIRs and blower doors being available to rent, sometimes from libraries.

But haven't done it myself.... hearsay.

You can buy a FLIR add-on for your iPhone or Android for $250 today, which is almost as good as the $15k one I was posting photos from here several years ago. Might as well just buy it, if you're even considering a rental.

You need to spend $500 to get the wider temperature range, but that's really not needed for applications involving checking your home insulation.

 

[woodgeek]

You can buy a FLIR add-on for your iPhone or Android for $250 today, which is almost as good as the $15k one I was posting photos from here several years ago. Might as well just buy it, if you're even considering a rental.

You need to spend $500 to get the wider temperature range, but that's really not needed for applications involving checking your home insulation.

I borrowed the cheap one from work.

 

[bogieb]

That's great news! I'm sure you posted it somewhere, but to avoid a hunt:

1. Size of your array?
2. Install cost?
3. Average usage?

I have 20 400w panels, so nominally an 8 kw system with expected output of 6,656 kwh.
Install cost was just under$26k (got back about $7k tax credit)
Average usage is 5,026 kwh per year
Have been approved for RECs so am a "power plant" in the eyes of the Energy Department

Yes, the ROI is quite long compared to most people, but I am okay with that.

 

[bogieb]

Our electrical bills drop down to $7, the minimum charge, for the summer months and they are low typically from May - Oct. when the heat pump is not running, but the car charging is still happening.
There are interesting ways to get an array installed on a small property. One Hearth.com member built a carport shelter with the array being its roof. It could be a wood shed cover too.

That depends on local ordinances. Until we just voted on it last week, my town would only allow solar to be mounted on a house. Not a barn, not a detached garage or shed, just a habitable housing unit. Oh, you could put up a yard mount, but only in a back yard (technically, between the primary structure and the rear lot line), and conform to setback requirements.

 

[Ashful]

I have 20 400w panels, so nominally an 8 kw system with expected output of 6,656 kwh.
Install cost was just under$26k (got back about $7k tax credit)
Average usage is 5,026 kwh per year
Have been approved for RECs so am a "power plant" in the eyes of the Energy Department

Yes, the ROI is quite long compared to most people, but I am okay with that.

Thanks. Good numbers.

I've been toying with the idea of doing some solar for years. But the problem I keep finding with home solar, is that the ROI is never, once you account for inflation. That $26k spent today is paid back at lower future-dollar value, it'll be worth only $14k in 20 years at a very modest 3%. Your actual payback value will hover somewhere in the middle, being spread over time. But I think you know that inflation during our current administration has spiked from ~1.5% up to somewhere close to 7%, depending on how you measure it. If they don't get that under control, your ROI goes strongly negative.

If you ignore inflation, which is a real nasty trick most solar companies employ to calculate ROI, I've seen ROI's of 13 - 25 years. That depends on system size and usage, usually favoring "smaller costs less".

Meanwhile, the same $26k invested in any tax-deferred account (IRA, your 401k, etc.) will grow to roughly $100k at a relatively safe 7% annual, over a similar 20 year period. So, rather than hoping to break even, which will usually never happen, we're actually losing $74k through this investment.

Not criticizing, you must have some non-financial reason for wanting to do it, and that's all good. But I'd be doing it mostly for less noble financial reasons, and would rather have the extra $74k in my retirement account. Each year I get older and closer to downsizing, the opportunity for any ROI diminishes, so we're probably reaching a "no return" point already.

 

[stoveliker]

Most folks don't pay the cost of the panels. I paid only 45 pct, you all paid the rest (tax credits).

And given the electric power cost increases these last years, break even has actually accelerated.

Moreover, as I paid off the panels in 2 years (with $0 in interest cost), I've been paying more into my retirement accounts because I don't have a power bill anymore. The latter does require discipline to not spend the larger budget on other things.

 

[Ashful]

Most folks don't pay the cost of the panels. I paid only 45 pct, you all paid the rest (tax credits).

True. But do note that each time I ran these calculations for various friends and families, tax credits and rebates were included, and they still failed to ever reach ROI after applying 2% to 4% inflation. That's even before you consider the opportunity cost of not investing the same money, which makes not doing solar an obvious slam-dunk, from the purely financial perspective.

Thankfully, there are people nobler than me, willing to throw their money into pushing tech toward something better. But in the case of home-based solar, I'm not sure they'll ever get there. Utility-scale solar looks to be the better proposition, than anything you can fit onto your roof.

 

[stoveliker]

And assuming flat electricity prices?

 

[woodgeek]

Thanks. Good numbers.

I've been toying with the idea of doing some solar for years. But the problem I keep finding with home solar, is that the ROI is never, once you account for inflation. That $26k spent today is paid back at lower future-dollar value, it'll be worth only $14k in 20 years at a very modest 3%. Your actual payback value will hover somewhere in the middle, being spread over time. But I think you know that inflation during our current administration has spiked from ~1.5% up to somewhere close to 7%, depending on how you measure it. If they don't get that under control, your ROI goes strongly negative.

If you ignore inflation, which is a real nasty trick most solar companies employ to calculate ROI, I've seen ROI's of 13 - 25 years. That depends on system size and usage, usually favoring "smaller costs less".

Meanwhile, the same $26k invested in any tax-deferred account (IRA, your 401k, etc.) will grow to roughly $100k at a relatively safe 7% annual, over a similar 20 year period. So, rather than hoping to break even, which will usually never happen, we're actually losing $74k through this investment.

Not criticizing, you must have some non-financial reason for wanting to do it, and that's all good. But I'd be doing it mostly for less noble financial reasons, and would rather have the extra $74k in my retirement account. Each year I get older and closer to downsizing, the opportunity for any ROI diminishes, so we're probably reaching a "no return" point already.

Keep in mind @Ashful that while PA is not anti-solar, it has some of the poorest incentives for solar in the country. And very low electricity rates (courtesy of cheap fracked gas made right next door, and a large fleet of legacy nukes). Those two things combined make solar in PA, as you say, really not pay off.

The numbers east of the Hudson river are a whole nother story. My older bro is a retired banker in Mass, and knows his way around a spreadsheet. He put solar on his house about 4-5 years ago, right before the Fed's stepped their benefit down, while Mass was still offering SRECs, and panels were already cheap. His simple payback came out to about 6 years assuming flat, nominal electricity rates. And then rates have gone up (in Mass) in real terms.

Bro pays about 2-3X for a kWh what we pay, retail. And SRECs (now discontinued on new installs I think) alone almost doubled HIS income from solar.

Those New England states will also pay a share of your energy retrofits (off utility bill surcharges), while PA does not. Although once every decade or so, the PA statehouse will fund a 0% loan program for retrofits (I did one in 2012), and the money gets exhausted in a few months.

Its a different world once you cross the river. Here in a PA a (cheap) EV pencils out way better than rooftop solar on TCO.

 

[stoveliker]

Also, did you actually lump sum 25k$ into your retirement accounts when you decided not to take solar panels?
If not, isn't that argument moot?

(Because anyone who contributed less to their retirement accounts to buy solar is not very smart, imo, and that label was not something I would paste on you from what I've seen.)

I paid my solar out of a 2 year tightening of the budget, without decreasing my retirement contributions.

And when that (interest free) loan was paid off in two years, and without a power bill, I increased my retirement contributions. So while there was no lump sum into my retirement accounts, there is a "forever" monthly increase because I don't have the power bill anymore.

And that total will be higher than the lump sum would have been in about 7 years. And then it'll increase for the next 21 years assuming a 30 yr lifetime of the panels. So my total retirement contributions will be higher (as in more than triple), though spread out over 30 years rather than a (non-existent, mind you) lump sum at the start.

 

[ihookem1]

As stated earlier, hydro, biomass, etc. also have to be included with wind and solar as renewables for a total of about 21%.

You are moving the goal posts away from the 1st post. Biomass is now renewable... Why is it now renewable ? Sure, trees are renewable, but so is crude oil. The earth makes crude oil every day and likely more than we use. Liberals are so good at calling renewables carbon reduction that it is really a lie. Biomass is carbon. Anyone saying otherwise is lying or just plain wrong. Hydro is absolutely hated by the green crowd, but then they slip it in their " renewables " to pump the numbers. For the life of me, I cant figure out why so many are on this green religion.. Yes, it's a religion, and the windmill is like their cross to a christian on Good Friday. I am not joking. Why dont we just all get it over with and call all energy renewables? Why is one hated , and one loved? The liberals 15 yrs. ago just loved Natural gas cars. Now they hate them. The truth is ,, they just hate oil companies and want to destroy them. If biomass (trees) is renewable,, then why is methane bad? Take a bunch of trees and bury them and you will get methane.. No? Yes you will. I drove by a landfill for 20 yrs. and they burned the methane for years . Big torches of flames coming out of the ground.. Then they tapped it to generators for electricity and now it's a renewable.. The green crowd is not telling the truth, they , and the government are very underhanded .

 

[ihookem1]

However , the windmills are turning here in SE WIs. this morning. I imagine Mr. Yooper sees them turning to in the Garden Peninsula .

 

[woodgeek]

You are moving the goal posts away from the 1st post. Biomass is now renewable... Why is it now renewable ? Sure, trees are renewable, but so is crude oil. The earth makes crude oil every day and likely more than we use. Liberals are so good at calling renewables carbon reduction that it is really a lie. Biomass is carbon. Anyone saying otherwise is lying or just plain wrong. Hydro is absolutely hated by the green crowd, but then they slip it in their " renewables " to pump the numbers. For the life of me, I cant figure out why so many are on this green religion.. Yes, it's a religion, and the windmill is like their cross to a christian on Good Friday. I am not joking. Why dont we just all get it over with and call all energy renewables? Why is one hated , and one loved? The liberals 15 yrs. ago just loved Natural gas cars. Now they hate them. The truth is ,, they just hate oil companies and want to destroy them. If biomass (trees) is renewable,, then why is methane bad? Take a bunch of trees and bury them and you will get methane.. No? Yes you will. I drove by a landfill for 20 yrs. and they burned the methane for years . Big torches of flames coming out of the ground.. Then they tapped it to generators for electricity and now it's a renewable.. The green crowd is not telling the truth, they , and the government are very underhanded .

You seem to know an awful lot about what greens and liberals like and want, and how it changes over time. You must clearly either be one of them, or have a lot of them as friends to have these insights. Is that correct?

I'm a green and a liberal. (I also think that Karl Marx got a lot right.) I have my convictions, and if you want to say that my convictions are my religion, well, its just a choice of words.

I agree the govt is very underhanded. They have happily looked the other way when many very large and wealthy companies have done things that have harmed millions of Americans health and welfare, and the future of their children and grandchildren. They did this bc they got paid to look the other way, and to give those companies eye-watering subsides and tax breaks. The money got them elected and reelected. And they keep at it bc they are afraid that the companies ad campaigns could destroy them if they try to cross them. Corrupt cowards.

So much so, that the US now has the dubious prize of being the only developed country where life expectancies are declining.

And to cover up what they did and continue to do, the companies 'flood the channel' with misinformation about how some OTHER companies or groups are the ones actually pulling shenanigans.

You and I, I would guess, agree about the govt being underhanded and doing lots of big things contrary to Americans' welfare. We only disagree on the particulars.

However, I am also an optimist. Part of my religion is that I believe the Truth will Out. Sometimes years or decades after it should have. But the Truth will Out.

 

[gthomas785]

The earth makes crude oil every day and likely more than we use.

It's a lot less than we're using. Otherwise the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would be dropping.

Why dont we just all get it over with and call all energy renewables?

Because some we are using faster than they can be created, e.g. oil and gas.

Then they tapped it to generators for electricity and now it's a renewable

It's renewable because most of that methane is formed from decaying biomass in the landfill (note: not turning into crude oil) but more importantly, burning it for energy is better than the alternatives of either venting it or flaring it and getting nothing.

Look, we're all here just trying to solve a problem. There are a bunch of factual inaccuracies in your post that betray a lack of interest in knowing the actual truth about climate science. Do I have an agenda? Yes, it's called being concerned about the future of humanity due to a man-made climate crisis. Why would people make this stuff up or lie about it? It's going to cost a lot of money to move away from fossil fuels and everyone wishes we could just ignore it but we can't. If you just keep your blinders on and refuse to accept that there's a problem needing to be solved then you are a burden to the rest of people trying to actually do something about it.