Throwing shade at heat pumps

[peakbagger]

Heat pumps 'worse' than gas boilers for warming up homes, admits Energy Secretary

Boris Johnson's proposed green alternative to gas heating is inferior to traditional boilers, the Business and Energy Secretary has admitted, as he insisted that heat pumps were not "much worse" than the technology they are designed to replace.

news.yahoo.com

Funny that US is adopting cold temp heat pumps yet the British politicians are dumping on them.

 

[ABMax24]

I think there is a lot of merit to that. A lot of places in the UK are using hot water heater where the lower water temperatures associated with a heatpump could reduce the heat input into the heating space.

From an affordability aspect I can see that too, it is very hard to beat the cost effectiveness of natural gas fired equipment.

It's something we are seeing here as well, there is a push from the federal government to switch to heatpump based space heating from natural gas. Unfortunately without substantial rebates for heat pumps and electricity or heavy punitive taxes on natural gas, from a $/btu perspective gas will remain the fuel of choice for a long time to come.

 

[begreen]

I think there is a lot of merit to that. A lot of places in the UK are using hot water heater where the lower water temperatures associated with a heatpump could reduce the heat input into the heating space.

From an affordability aspect I can see that too, it is very hard to beat the cost effectiveness of natural gas fired equipment.

It's something we are seeing here as well, there is a push from the federal government to switch to heatpump based space heating from natural gas. Unfortunately without substantial rebates for heat pumps and electricity or heavy punitive taxes on natural gas, from a $/btu perspective gas will remain the fuel of choice for a long time to come.

Natural gas wells have several issues with leaking and flaring methane. And there are many places that have no access to natural gas so this also has to be a concern. However, the total electrification of heating, as they did in Northern China, comes with the major caveat of grid failures due to demand overload in extreme winter conditions. However, gas infrastructure, if not hardened to extreme cold, can also suffer these same caveats.

 

[ABMax24]

Natural gas wells have several issues with leaking and flaring methane. And there are many places that have no access to natural gas so this also has to be a concern. However, the total electrification of heating, as they did in Northern China, comes with the major caveat of grid failures due to demand overload in extreme winter conditions. However, gas infrastructure, if not hardened to extreme cold, can also suffer these same caveats.

I was referencing the conversion to heat pumps from natural gas as is described in the article where natural gas already exists.

Natural gas wells are as safe/leak free as the agencies that regulate them want them to be. I work around natural gas wells and the associated processing equipment and pipelines on a daily basis. Fugitive methane emissions are a major target of regulators right now, and some of my recent and upcoming projects are based on minimizing methane emissions. Flaring really has been greatly reduced, at least around here in recent years. Yes most plants have flare stacks with a small pilot light, but this is a safety measure, if the plant ESD's (Emergency Shutdown) the plant is depressurized within minutes and the gas is safely burnt off at the flare stack. Otherwise it's not legal to flare any sizeable amount of natural gas just because, either it has to go in the pipeline or it stays in the ground.

Freezing of natural gas systems is also almost non-existent in properly setup gas processing and distribution systems. The issues of water freezing and gas hydrates have been known for at least the last 70 years, solutions to those issues have also been around about that long. We see sub -40 every winter, I've never had a gas outage in the cold or otherwise. A substantial portion of the natural gas for Ontario and the northeastern US comes from this part of Canada, again cold weather doesn't prevent us from shipping our gas to our customers across the continent. Texas seems to be one of the only places were freezing temperatures shutdown the gas supply, for the exact same reasons their electrical grid doesn't operate in those same freezing conditions. Apparently Texas is the only place on the continent where anti-freeze and insulation are prohibitively expensive.

 

[SpaceBus]

I think that as long as energy is viewed from a cost perspective there will never be any changes.

 

[ABMax24]

I think that as long as energy is viewed from a cost perspective there will never be any changes.

You're right. Unfortunately most consumers, and even worse corporations, don't shop for energy that way. Cost is quite often the primary driver of energy choice.

I had high hopes last year that there would be a change in US policy to be more aligned with the climate change policies of Canada and Europe, where there are price penalties on carbon intensive fuels, so far there has been little improvement in that department. Now the US has asked OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices, which is quite the opposite of penalizing CO2 production.

 

[peakbagger]

Many European cities went to district heating long ago and even in areas without district heating. laws and tariffs were put in place to force building heating off of fossil fuels. That is why a lot of European biomass tech was more developed than the US as wood was very viable solution in areas without district heat. Unlike older district heating networks that use steam, the district heating systems have both steam and hot water supply and regulations require that the homes be designed for very low supply temps. Thus the prevalence of European firms in the low temp radiant baseboard market. That is easy to do in new housing but in old housing stock retrofitting to low temp radiant is manpower and equipment extensive. England does have some district heating systems but my guess is they are steam based thus they are most likely designed for high supply temps. Natural gas equipment is relatively cheap to install and provides high supply temps. My guess is existing housing stock does not have a lot of properly sized insulated duct systems so there is large population of steam and high supply temp systems that would not integrate well with heat air to air heat pump systems. Air to Water based heat pump systems at best supply 130F (ideally lower) so its not a drop in replacement. I don't follow natural gas supply and pricing in the UK so it may be the case where its cheap and available enough that a building by building retrofit to low temp does not make sense unless the price shoots up considerably due to the addition of the cost/supply restrictions due to carbon.

 

[begreen]

I think that as long as energy is viewed from a cost perspective there will never be any changes.

That often is because the total cost of the energy is not considered. Factors like environmental damage, climate impact, subsidies, and health consequences are often dismissed.

https://www.ourenergypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/hidden.pdf

 

[begreen]

Natural gas wells are as safe/leak free as the agencies that regulate them want them to be. I work around natural gas wells and the associated processing equipment and pipelines on a daily basis. Fugitive methane emissions are a major target of regulators right now, and some of my recent and upcoming projects are based on minimizing methane emissions.

I greatly respect your perspective and knowledge of this industry. Still, the data shows that fossil fuel extraction is a dirty business, even as governments try to clean it up. Unfortunately, we regressed in methane tracking in the country as short-term profit surpassed environmental and climate concerns. Methane emissions from oil and gas production have spiked in the past decade. In Canada, it appears that old wells are a key culprit. While looking at the data, it appears that CO2 emissions from the tar sands projects are very large. According to the review, the oil and gas industries are responsible for approximately half the methane emissions in the world as of 2019. The fact is that rather than reducing overall CO2 and CH4 emissions, they are increasing. This is a very dangerous trend.

Mapping methane emissions on a global scale

An important new tool to combat climate change is now available. Using data from the Copernicus Sentinel-5P satellite, this new technology makes it possible to track and attribute methane emissions around the world.

phys.org

Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas – Analysis - IEA

Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

The lion's share of emissions appears to be upstream:

Spectrum of the well-to-tank emissions intensity of global gas production, 2018 – Charts – Data & Statistics - IEA

Spectrum of the well-to-tank emissions intensity of global gas production, 2018 - Chart and data by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

 

[stoveliker]

In Europe (at least in the three countries I am intimately familiar with), there is *no* ducting. It is all high-temp water radiators.

 

[peakbagger]

My bet is AC is a lot rarer?

 

[stoveliker]

Yes. My experience is from the north west (not Scandinavia). When I left there (ok, 15 years ago), AC was essentially non-existent for homes.

 

[ABMax24]

I greatly respect your perspective and knowledge of this industry. Still, the data shows that fossil fuel extraction is a dirty business, even as governments try to clean it up. Unfortunately, we regressed in methane tracking in the country as short-term profit surpassed environmental and climate concerns. Methane emissions from oil and gas production have spiked in the past decade. In Canada, it appears that old wells are a key culprit. While looking at the data, it appears that CO2 emissions from the tar sands projects are very large. According to the review, the oil and gas industries are responsible for approximately half the methane emissions in the world as of 2019. The fact is that rather than reducing overall CO2 and CH4 emissions, they are increasing. This is a very dangerous trend.

View attachment 281198

Mapping methane emissions on a global scale

An important new tool to combat climate change is now available. Using data from the Copernicus Sentinel-5P satellite, this new technology makes it possible to track and attribute methane emissions around the world.

phys.org

Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas – Analysis - IEA

Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

The lion's share of emissions appears to be upstream:

View attachment 281200 View attachment 281201

Spectrum of the well-to-tank emissions intensity of global gas production, 2018 – Charts – Data & Statistics - IEA

Spectrum of the well-to-tank emissions intensity of global gas production, 2018 - Chart and data by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

Canada can do better, and is working to do better in terms of methane emissions. Canada though is already better than many other oil/gas producing nations including the US. The oil sands is in a similar scenario, and have reduced CO2 intensity per barrel by 34% since 1990.

Old wells aren't the culprit of methane emissions as such, production equipment is. Remote sites often have pneumatic injection pumps powered by fuel gas to inject chemical into the gas stream, methanol to prevent freezing, and inhibitor to prevent corrosion, this gas is vented to atmosphere unburnt afterwards and is a large source of fugitive CH4 emissions. The problem is there is no grid power anywhere near most of these sites to run them electrically, and only very limited solar power just to run the SCADA (supervised control and data acquisition) systems that allow operators to run and monitor these wells remotely. There are a few companies building self-contained injection skids that are solar powered with some degree of success, the problem is in the coldest weather when these pumps are required the most is the exact time when solar power is the least reliable.

Column: Reducing methane venting in Canada | BOE Report

The Canadian oil and gas industry can be proud of its environmental record, as shown on this International Energy Agency (IEA) chart above. Even though Canada is a major producer, we rank tenth in the list of countries in terms of total methane emissions and similarly low in methane intensity...

boereport.com

What Are Greenhouse Gases | GHG Emissions & Canada's Carbon Footprint

Greenhouse gas emissions are produced when hydrocarbons are burned, often for heat, electricity or fuel. Learn about Canada's GHG emissions & carbon footprint.

www.capp.ca

Ultimately though I feel many people are targeting oil and gas producers as the cause of global warming in much the same way cartels are targeted in the war on drugs. Success on both these fronts will only occur once the addiction is cured, until then a supply will always exist as long as there is a demand.

 

[begreen]

Yes, I didn't mean to focus on Canada. The US is a much worse offender. Do you know what is the source of the many hotspots showing up north on the map? Is that around Whitehorse?

Ultimately though I feel many people are targeting oil and gas producers as the cause of global warming in much the same way cartels are targeted in the war on drugs. Success on both these fronts will only occur once the addiction is cured, until then a supply will always exist as long as there is a demand.

Agreed. Conservation is the quickest solution we have at hand.

 

[stoveliker]

Ultimately though I feel many people are targeting oil and gas producers as the cause of global warming in much the same way cartels are targeted in the war on drugs. Success on both these fronts will only occur once the addiction is cured, until then a supply will always exist as long as there is a demand.

I agree, this is a problem of society, not companies who respond to societal demand.

Hence it is important to have government exert some power to move society to a better mode of operating. No other entity has the power or the intrinsic drive to do so. (After all, companies exist to make money, like it or not, and it's hard to expect them do things in conflict with that first reason d'etre. They don't, in first order, exist for altruistic reasons...)

 

[ABMax24]

Yes, I didn't mean to focus on Canada. The US is a much worse offender. Do you know what is the source of the many hotspots showing up north on the map? Is that around Whitehorse?



Agreed. Conservation is the quickest solution we have at hand.

One of those dots could be Norman Wells, roughly straight north of the big blob of Alberta, but Norman wells really doesn't produce much for oil anymore, something like 1,700 barrels per day, so I'm skeptical that it would show up on that survey, otherwise the north doesn't really have oil and gas activity. I'm more leaning toward the melting permafrost and methane emissions from muskeg and other rotting organic matter as those sources, much of that land is barren and completely void of human activity. Those dots roughly follow the route of the Mackenzie river and into the Mackenzie river delta.

It's definitely not Whitehorse, as Whitehorse is located much closer to the ocean only a couple hour drive north from Skegway AK.

 

[SpaceBus]

Yes. My experience is from the north west (not Scandinavia). When I left there (ok, 15 years ago), AC was essentially non-existent for homes.

We didn't have AC in our apartment in Italy, but when my family moved to the UK in 2003 our subdivision home had ducting and a central heat pump. I think the house was built in the 90's, looked just like the "muggle" neighborhood in the Harry Potter movies. It really just depends on how old the building is. Europe just seems to have a larger percentage of old buildings/homes kicking around than the US does.

 

[stoveliker]

Yes. (I believe) because they build with stone rather than wood. Which also makes it harder to retrofit ducts in. (Floors from prefab concrete slabs don't have space like between wood joists).

 

[SpaceBus]

Yes. (I believe) because they build with stone rather than wood. Which also makes it harder to retrofit ducts in. (Floors from prefab concrete slabs don't have space like between wood joists).

Indeed, our Italian apartment was all cast concrete, concrete block, and other masonry materials. The only wood was used for trim and interior doors. The heated towel racks were pretty cool, but it got hot in there in the summer. Most European apartment windows are also swinging windows and don't accommodate window shakers. I can see mini splits becoming popular in a lot of Europe due to the existing apartment infrastructure. I only got to see the inside of one old Italian house and it was all plaster and mahogany so I don't know how it was built, plus I was like 12.

 

[stoveliker]

Yes. I know of waiting times for minisplit installation up to 4-5 months there

 

[peakbagger]

On a modern tight house, the concept of radiant cooling is coming more real. Instead of moving lots of air without a lot of heat transfer capacity, either cold water or refrigerant is piped to small air terminal units (that could look like minsplit indoor heads or hidden) in each block of rooms. Cold water also can be run through conventional radiant panels as long as dew point is carefully tracked and monitored. This is impractical with a "leaky" home that soaks in moisture from outside air that leaks in through cracks but in a tight home with mechanical ventilation and heat recovery relative humidity control is far easier so dew point issues are far less difficult to solve. John Siegenthaler is making the ever increasing valid arguments that the days of ducted heating and cooling residential and light commercial structures in a environment with heating and cooling environment is longer state of the art. Combine that with near net zero energy construction techniques and there is a path forward for new construction but its major problem for existing housing stock.

 

[begreen]

I agree, this is a problem of society, not companies who respond to societal demand.

Companies work very hard to stimulate consumer demand. At times they actually have demonized existing systems in order to get their products more accepted. This is how an extensive and excellent streetcar system in western WA was replaced by buses in the 1930s. It's also why WA state does not have a bottle bill.

 

[begreen]

Yes. (I believe) because they build with stone rather than wood. Which also makes it harder to retrofit ducts in. (Floors from prefab concrete slabs don't have space like between wood joists).

I have a friend in Germany. They bought a place in the Hamburg area this year and are putting in solar and minisplits.