Winter 2024

[Ashful]

Some depressing El Nino predictions for this winter, if you put much stock in long-range forecasts:



I have heard most meteorologists claim that they have very low confidence in this year's forecast, which is not always the case on these long-term forecasts.

 

[begreen]

NOAA current prediction

 

[Ashful]

cool. I had posted one like that a little while back, but can't remember if it was before or after this Oct.19 update. So, 40% - 50% probability of above average temperature for my region, but no word by how much, and just on the cusp of "leaning above" versus "equal chances" for precipitation.

After an almost non-existent winter last year, I've been hoping for a bit more snow and cold. We didn't even get one snowfall worth plowing here, last year.

 

[ABMax24]

I'd agree with those predictions (extrapolating the data between the continental US and Alaska because Canada doesn't exist on these NOAA charts). It's been really mild here thus far, the snow we did get is now gone and we're still getting daytime highs above freezing.

 

[NHWS]

We didn't even get one snowfall worth plowing here, last year.

Do you usually? I don't remember routine plow-worthy snowfalls from that area when I lived in the region.

 

[thewoodlands]

Usually whatever they say we'll get for winter weather, the last week of December the colder weather comes in. January & February usually are the coldest months, I expect the same this year.

It does seem like our fall temps are warmer each year but the cold hangs on longer in March, we go from winter to summer and skip spring.

 

[Ashful]

Do you usually? I don't remember routine plow-worthy snowfalls from that area when I lived in the region.

We go thru cycles, where we'll get several years of multiple 12 inch snowfalls and even occasional over 30 inches, then a few years with little or nothing. Our record was 36 inches in a single storm. I recall 2020 (or was it 2021?) in particular, we had one big storm after another, to where I had snowpiles over 10 feet high around all of my parking areas, but that was an exceptionally snowy year, for us.

If I had to name "normal" for our region, it'd be up to a half dozen 6" snows, and one big one over a foot.

Note that while my location reads "Philadelphia", my closest major city, I'm about 30 miles north and a few hundred feet higher in elevation. So whereas Philly is so often 33F - 35F and rain in our winter storms, we're more often 25F - 30F and snow. Just a few degrees cooler, but critically on the other side of the snow/rain threshold.

 

[Tonty]

We’ve been exceedingly dry here in Kansas. No runoff for almost 16 months. But now we’ve been getting some rain and snow. It snowed 10-12” on the 25th of Nov., so that was awesome. Finally a bit of water back in the ponds.

 

[NHWS]

Note that while my location reads "Philadelphia", my closest major city, I'm about 30 miles north and a few hundred feet higher in elevation. So whereas Philly is so often 33F - 35F and rain in our winter storms, we're more often 25F - 30F and snow. Just a few degrees cooler, but critically on the other side of the snow/rain threshold.

I understand the difference well. I'm a similar distance NE of Seattle, and likewise a few hundred feet higher, and see the same kind of difference from the city weather.

 

[Caw]

I love some snow this year. It's been very boring the last couple winters.

 

[ABMax24]

This November was the first in recorded history with no precipitation.

Might be a brown Christmas at the way we're going, haven't had one of those since I was a kid.

 

[Caw]

We've had two very light dustings here and a bit of rain but it was a dry November overall.

 

[Pinesmoke]

Is been in the 60s and rain today. I work about 400 miles north of here so I'm sure I'll get my fill of cold.

 

[Northern NH Mike]

Looks like some snow coming to VT, northern NH and ME the next 24 hours. Its been like spring skiing the past week

 

[Ashful]

I love some snow this year. It's been very boring the last couple winters.

We were absolutely buried winter 2021, just one big storm after another, basically weekly school shut downs. I don't remember 2022 as being anything remarkably big or small, with regard to snowfall, but I do know 2023 was a total bust. I think we got one small coating last winter, and t was gone within a day.

I don't know if I want to re-live 2021 yet, but I sure would like to get at least a few snow storms this winter, and some sledding time in with the kids before they're too cool to hang out with dad.

 

[Caw]

I don't know if I want to re-live 2021 yet, but I sure would like to get at least a few snow storms this winter, and some sledding time in with the kids before they're too cool to hang out with dad

Yeah that's right around the corner sadly. Time flies. I feel the same way.

I also have a new Ariens I want to actually use lol. Got it for 2022 and my arm was broken so the wife used it then last year there was no snow.

 

[Ashful]

Hah, and I thought the "no snow" years were all my fault! I have a new HDPE scraper edge on my snowplow that I've been dying to try, the last two years:

 

[Caw]

How long does an edge like that last? I've never plowed I just envision pavement eating that up.

 

[qwee]

Temperature here in southern Idaho went from 55 F to -2 F in a couple of days with 15" of snow. I've been knocked into winter mode. Long johns check, snow tires check, and firewood stuff stored away until spring check (I'm a fair-weather firewood guy).

 

[Corman-1]

Up here in Canada even the geese don’t know which way to go this year….now for 2024 I predict bone chill freezing wind and a late spring….. “in like a lamb out like a lion.”.

 

[Ashful]

How long does an edge like that last? I've never plowed I just envision pavement eating that up.

Given the amount of snow we've had the last two years... forever!

Lots of commercial guys run these edges and they do wear, but not at any rate that creates them serious trouble. I expect that on my glass-smooth sealcoated asphalt driveway, the thing will probably last at least a decade at 5 - 10 uses per year, but I'll let you know after I actually get to use it!

My street is oiled and chipped every few years, creating a road surface like gravel set in glue, for those not already familiar with the process. I imagine this edge will see more wear in crossing the 20 foot width of my street, to push the last bit of snow from the end of the driveway across into a neighbor's yard, than it will see doing the entire 450 foot length of my smooth asphalt driveway.

 

[begreen]

We have snow! Up in the mountains, where it belongs.

 

[Ashful]

We have snow! Up in the mountains, where it belongs.

We had two snow storms, consecutive mornings this week. The pavement is still too warm for it to lay up, but we did get a nice coating on the grass both times. It was gone with the afternoon sun, both times.

But there is snow on the ski slopes behind us, man made, but naturally-preserved.

 

[thewoodlands]

We had two snow storms, consecutive mornings this week. The pavement is still too warm for it to lay up, but we did get a nice coating on the grass both times. It was gone with the afternoon sun, both times.

But there is snow on the ski slopes behind us, man made, but naturally-preserved.

We have a second system coming up the coast, for the area I live in, it could hit Sunday but it looks like we won't get the heavy snowfall like some unless things change.

What's the forecast for your area?

 

[Ashful]

What's the forecast for your area?

Probably a rain/snow mix throughout the weekend, but nothing that will stick, here. It's just too warm.

Of course, getting everyone to school Monday morning could be a bit of a "thing", if temps are dropping to 22F after all that precipitation. We have some rather treacherous roads around here, narrow, winding, with no shoulders, and often banked the wrong direction in curves. They only get more fun when glazed with ice.

Saturday
A chance of rain and snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night
Rain and snow. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday
Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.