65 % of americans not preparing for retirement.

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The bull market is peaking

Ha! Are you saying the top is in? You don't know that and neither does anybody else. We've been hearing that the top is in for many years now and if you believed it then you would have already sold out and the pile of cash under your mattress would have lost out on lots of earnings.
 
The top may or may not be in but there are indications that this bull is definitely mature. The standard warning about financial predictions is "this time things are different". Its been pretty consistent that the market is cyclical over the long term and the current market is way out past the length of normal bull markets. There have been artificial drivers in place (ultra low interest rates) to keep it running and last tax revision poured more fuel on the fire by cutting corporate tax rates and allowing offshore profits to come back to the US). Revenues from corporate taxes are dropping quickly and the deficit is going up. The Fed is cranking up rates and at some point that usually slows down the market.

In the past I really didn't care as my time horizon was longer (more than 5 years) but I plan to be starting a draw down sooner than that so I need to rotate some of my equities (with high capital gains) into a higher percentage of bonds. Worry not I will still be in equities just a lower percentage of them.
 
I’m not currently living in a house that has been in my family since the 1690’s.
Ashful that is amazing. I am sorry you and your family lost that house. I think I remember reading in other posts about some of the history of homes you knew or your family lived in. Is that 1690s house still in existence?
 
Ashful that is amazing. I am sorry you and your family lost that house. I think I remember reading in other posts about some of the history of homes you knew or your family lived in. Is that 1690s house still in existence?
"In existence" is a relative term. Yes, it's still there, but the asshat who bought it "restored" it. Now it looks like every McMansion modern developers throw up.

Awesome posts, jharkin. I disagree with you on the death tax comments, but no need to drum up old arguments, already had.
 
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The trinity study assumed a 30 year retirement and no social security. Had to check! @jharkin
 
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I was referring to the accumulated debt of 21Trillion ,and the prospects of paying it back.. Has nothing to do with the stock market.

There is a term called "inflating the debt away" that contends it just doesn't ever need to be repaid. Its argued a lot among economists who understand this stuff much better than I do ... but at a very superficial level I get it.

Just imagine today you buy a house and lock in that mortgage at 4.5%. Then image inflation goes double digit nuts like the 70s.. In 10 years the mortgage nut will be nothing but pocket change. Way oversimplifying things but that's the general idea...



Perhaps what we can agree on is the we (as in, jokers like you and I) should control the value of money instead of a few very powerful bankers, congress and the federal reserve. :)

This we can agree on. What the big banks got away with in the housing runup was criminal.


You don't understand what Obamacare did. Insurance already provided care for those serious conditions you listed.[/QUOTE]

I am aware of that. But pre-existing condition limitations meant that people could get denied for buying new plans on the open market.

The bigger point I was arguing is your contention that we should be allowed to pick and choose what coverage we buy. The problems is as soon as you do that a lot of young, healthy (and dumb) people will not buy coverage... shrinking the pool of premium funding, making some care affordable for those who do need it.

Massachusetts mandates a lot more coverage beyond the federal minimums, and yet plans on our state health market, on average, are cheaper than many states that require only bare minimums with greater cost sharing credits, etc.. hmmmmm...
 
Ha! Are you saying the top is in? You don't know that and neither does anybody else. We've been hearing that the top is in for many years now and if you believed it then you would have already sold out and the pile of cash under your mattress would have lost out on lots of earnings.

+1 This is what I was saying on the last page. In 2009 all the pundits where calling the end of capitalism as we know it... and then the market went on a 1980s like tear.


That's the problem.. we don't know. Try to time the market and you are likely to loose... this is a key tenant of Bogle-ism... There was a long running discussion on the bogle forum about how much of the long term gain of the market comes from a few really good years, so you are just as likely to loose out by mistiming a peak as mistiming a bottom.

Using a defined AA protects you from this and forces you to buy low/sell high automatically. If I say I'm 60% equity/ 40% bond... as the market climbs re-balancing to maintain that allocation requires I sell stock gains to buy bonds... then when the peak passes and it declines, my AA forces me to sell bonds to buy declining stocks. Its automatic and not subject to guessing.


If a true blacks swan happens and the entire market does collapse, selling out early wont matter much anyway. That's the nature of a black swan.... its by definition something we cant predict.


EDIT: wrote this as I was walking out to lunch and didn't see your follow up about a short time horizon. I agree we are probably due for a correction but my time horizon is still 15 years to retirement so I see it as a buying opportunity. Good luck!
 
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There is a term called "inflating the debt away" that contends it just doesn't ever need to be repaid. Its argued a lot among economists who understand this stuff much better than I do ... but at a very superficial level I get it.

Just imagine today you buy a house and lock in that mortgage at 4.5%. Then image inflation goes double digit nuts like the 70s.. In 10 years the mortgage nut will be nothing but pocket change. Way oversimplifying things but that's the general idea...
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I guess thats exactly the plan,cuz both parties seem to be falling over each other trying to borrow and spend as much as they can.
 
I guess thats exactly the plan,cuz both parties seem to be falling over each other trying to borrow and spend as much as they can.


They do, and in part the problem is that nobody seems to have found a way to really kick start growth on main st this time around. The markets have done well, and I don't deny Ive benefited from that but I am well aware that many... the majority... have not.

I don't have the answer... I 'm sure Id be preaching to the quire to say there are no easy answers......
 
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They do, and in part the problem is that nobody seems to have found a way to really kick start growth on main st this time around. The markets have done well, and I don't deny Ive benefited from that but I am well aware that many... the majority... have not.

I don't have the answer... I 'm sure Id be preaching to the quire to say there are no easy answers......
I do see some growth on Main St here. Lots of activity the last year or so in my economically dead small town. Not a lot of Mfg or factories but lots of Wineries, Brew pubs, Restaurants,(probably too many) Lots of Home Remodeling and Real Estate investment.(My field).Real Estate prices are advancing more than any time in my 62 years here. There is an optimistic air about.
 
The bigger point I was arguing is your contention that we should be allowed to pick and choose what coverage we buy. The problems is as soon as you do that a lot of young, healthy (and dumb) people will not buy coverage... shrinking the pool of premium funding, making some care affordable for those who do need it.

Massachusetts mandates a lot more coverage beyond the federal minimums, and yet plans on our state health market, on average, are cheaper than many states that require only bare minimums with greater cost sharing credits, etc.. hmmmmm...

Then they can pay more if they have bad health. I understand perfectly how insurance works, but I also see no issue with paying more if you are in bad health. We accept this with bad drivers. We accept this with bad credit.

This graphic doesn't really show the rates lower in MA, it shows them higher than average. https://howmuch.net/articles/health-insurance-rates-by-state
MA appears to be 2nd in the country for state spend per capita on health care. Maybe that is keeping individual costs down through subsidization? https://www.beckershospitalreview.c...akdown-of-per-capita-healthcare-spending.html

My wife worked for a very big insurance company and she underwrote/priced small group and individual health care plans. As a nurse, she would look at their medical history, prescription history, ect..and price the plan. One of the biggest factors was what state they were in. The minimum coverages where so different state to state (set by state government), that many insurance companies would not do business in those states. This gives the ones that do, a sort of small monopoly on the citizens. The state, through minimum coverage standards, prevents the citizen from using all of the collective competition of many ins companies and that prevents them from getting the best price possible for what they want. When insurance companies compete for your business, you win.

My points are in no way to defend or empower insurance companies. In fact, I believe the recent obamacare has simply made them even more powerful and rich. My point is that we can't in any way blame a free market system for our rising health care costs. We have government meddling everywhere and every step of the way. Our health care and health insurance is very far from free market.
We have to look at why health care costs so much. If we got that cost down, insurance would follow.

Something to ponder....there are facilities opening up that will not take any insurance. Cash only for operations. They cost about 10% what the operation would cost in a normal hospital and their success rate is high and their infection rate low. Everyone gets the same price.
 
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My area of NH was hit hard by the crash and burn of the paper industry. We lost 2 paper mills, a major pulp mill and the remaining papermill is shadow of itself and is struggling. The direct jobs impact was around 2500 jobs in around 10 years in a very rural area. There were a lot more indirect job impacts. The local towns were struggling. The area is on the northern fringe of tourism for the White Mountain National Forest but outside of the magic 2 hour driving time from Boston. The area did end up with a federal and state prison that stabilized the workforce so that we could retain a hospital and other services but a lot of folks left the area and the remaining retirees homes dragged the market down as they slowly moved out and passed away.

The thing that has replaced well paying industry jobs is more tourist jobs related to ATVs. The entire lightly populated northern part of the state is now a hot bed of ATV activity. Most towns allow ATVs to ride on town roads and folks can go quite a long distance strictly on ATV trails, I think they are over 1000 miles or trails. There is also a 7000 acre state park that is mostly exclusively for ATVs. The area had active snowmobile tourism but that was too seasonal, when the ATVs are added in it allows businesses to run 10 months a year. Houses are relatively cheap so folks from southern New England are buying homes in town to use for when they visit and some are moving up when they retire. The tourist town I live in was struggling but now has stabilized and is actually growing, most weekends every motel room and campground is booked the entire weekend and even during the week there is steady traffic. There have been a couple of steel and metal fabrication businesses that moved up to the area due to a well trained labor pool that has reasonable work ethic who tend to like living where there is good hunting and fishing along with ATV and snow machining from in some cases the front door. Its nowhere like the days of the papermills but the area has slowly reinvented itself. Its not without hiccups, some folks moved up here to get away from it all and now they have ATVs cruising down the roads in front of their houses but there are attempts to build new trails to get the routes off the roads.
 
Then they can pay more if they have bad health. I understand perfectly how insurance works, but I also see no issue with paying more if you are in bad health. We accept this with bad drivers. We accept this with bad credit.

The difference is that people in bad health often don't KNOW they are in bad health. A distant relation of mine ... guy in his early 50s, runner, very fit.... started to feel unusually tired and goes in for a checkup...

Stage 4 Pancreatic cancer.

Almost no warning signs till its too late and then it progresses fast. 7 figures of experimental treatments etc, and I'm sure you know what the prognosis is.

What if he had said " I feel healthy, I wont bother to buy cancer insurance" ;sick


This graphic doesn't really show the rates lower in MA, it shows them higher than average. https://howmuch.net/articles/health-insurance-rates-by-state
MA appears to be 2nd in the country for state spend per capita on health care. Maybe that is keeping individual costs down through subsidization? https://www.beckershospitalreview.c...akdown-of-per-capita-healthcare-spending.html

Only a little higher than average - but look at the second graph you posted of deductibles. Some of the "cheap states" have deductibles 3x as high or more for only 5-10% less in monthly premiums. Wouldn't the guy in the white house call that " a bad deal... sad."


You can also use the Kaiser Foundation calculator to see what a plan would cost you in each state:
https://www.kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/

I don't doubt that a lot of this is due to state subsidies, remember that that our system was what Obamacare was modeled after. But the funny thing is that even with all those subsidies our state income taxes are right in the middle nationally , and in fact lower than most of the sates on your map with high insurance deductibles :
https://taxfoundation.org/state-individual-income-tax-rates-brackets-2017/


My wife worked for a very big insurance company and she underwrote/priced small group and individual health care plans. As a nurse, she would look at their medical history, prescription history, ect..and price the plan. One of the biggest factors was what state they were in. The minimum coverage's where so different state to state (set by state government), that many insurance companies would not do business in those states. This gives the ones that do, a sort of small monopoly on the citizens. The state, through minimum coverage standards, prevents the citizen from using all of the collective competition of many ins companies and that prevents them from getting the best price possible for what they want. When insurance companies compete for your business, you win.

My points are in no way to defend or empower insurance companies. In fact, I believe the recent Obamacare has simply made them even more powerful and rich. My point is that we can't in any way blame a free market system for our rising health care costs. We have government meddling everywhere and every step of the way. Our health care and health insurance is very far from free market.
We have to look at why health care costs so much. If we got that cost down, insurance would follow.

Something to ponder....there are facilities opening up that will not take any insurance. Cash only for operations. They cost about 10% what the operation would cost in a normal hospital and their success rate is high and their infection rate low. Everyone gets the same price.


No argument that there is tons of waste in the system. My mom takes a cancer medication that costs $12,000 a month. In Canada or Europe it would cost less than 1/10th that..

But call me cynical, people are.. well... dumb. Set those minimum coverage's very low and most people will only buy the minimum coverage and then be devastated financially when something unexpected happens like the cancer diagnosis I mentioned, or a serious head injury, or a complicated childbirth (remember some idiot in congress wanted to make childbirth an "optional" coverage. WTF) . I see it all the time when there is a house fire in town and people start go fund me's to help the affected family eat because folks are not prepared and skimped a few bucks on homeowners coverage :(

I would be all for a single payer system that eliminates all the middle layers of bureaucracy, but I am well aware our current system is far too entrenched to make that possible without massive economic disruptions....
 
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The difference is that people in bad health often don't KNOW they are in bad health. A distant relation of mine ... guy in his early 50s, runner, very fit.... started to feel unusually tired and goes in for a checkup...
Stage 4 Pancreatic cancer.
Almost no warning signs till its too late and then it progresses fast. 7 figures of experimental treatments etc, and I'm sure you know what the prognosis is.
What if he had said " I feel healthy, I wont bother to buy cancer insurance" ;sick
.
What is it about runners .A good friend of mine died in his 40s same thing pancreatic cancer ,active runner. I think sometimes they over do it like those 24 hr marathons.
 
I only run when being chased by bees! My anti-cancer strategy. @Seasoned Oak

I’m not normally a liberal/Democrat/socialist type person but I support the universal health care system idea. Willing to pay taxes so we all have health services.
 
I only run when being chased by bees! My anti-cancer strategy. @Seasoned Oak

I’m not normally a liberal/Democrat/socialist type person but I support the universal health care system idea. Willing to pay taxes so we all have health services.

I support that too. But coming from a country that has been under socialist governments for decades since WWII it only works for a while. Population is growing, people are getting older. Elderly have less income and pay less taxes but need much more healthcare. Younger people stay in school longer, start to earn money at later age and therefore pay a lot less taxes to help fund the healthcare system. All added up, the system works for let's say 40 years and then the funding dries out and you get in trouble. Then, the premiums have to go up to continue funding, but youngsters and elderly cannot afford those high premiums.
 
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I only run when being chased by bees! My anti-cancer strategy. @Seasoned Oak
I’m not normally a liberal/Democrat/socialist type person but I support the universal health care system idea. Willing to pay taxes so we all have health services.
I agree ,since were going to pay for those who dont pay anyway with one caveat . It should be paid for with consumption taxes, not income taxes. That way every one pays, including the millions working under the table so to speak ,those earning but not claiming income. Those living off trust funds. Hookers, Drug Dealers, all elements of the unreported cash economy all pay, where they pay nothing now but of course use all the services.
 
Most likely in the next 12 months I will be having to get an ACA plan if they still exist. Its looks like $1000 a month for individual coverage similar to my Cobra coverage ( a High Deductible Health Care Plan). It is unlikely I will get a subsidy as my income from consulting and investments will put me over the limit. I expect it will be over 7.5% of my income so I can deduct the costs so a quick swag is 25% savings via a tax deduction for a net of around $9000 a year. Plus I will need to get some dental which appears to be about double of what my company plan costs so kick in $500 a year additional.

Right now I pay about $350 a month for Cobra. Barring me getting lucky and finding an alternative it means that my health care costs will be my biggest expense in a year and I will be paying it for about 5 years assuming that qualifying for medicare stays at 65. I know of other folks that have preexisting conditions and if not for ACA, they really cannot afford insurance.

If ACA ceases to exist then I am at the mercy of individual plans and several years ago they were approaching $1,500 a month. I expect they will not go down in cost as I expect many of the folks with preexisting conditions will be forced to buy the plans. The alternative is to buy short term insurance for catastrophic issues and hope that I don't end up with a long term condition as typically how these plans work is they cover the long term condition for the limited duration of the policy and exclude those conditions from payment when the next policy is written. The intent of ACA was to spread the high costs for long term condtions over a greater size pool by having everyone have to by insurance but with the recent changes in tax law the penalties are almost nill for not buying it.

Its easy to complain about ACA as most folks are covered by company plans. I know of folks who are Trump supporters who have changed their tune when they lose access to a company plan and have to look at ACA. Granted the system is not perfect and really should cut out the middlemen but the alternatives are far worse.
 
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I agree ,since were going to pay for those who dont pay anyway with one caveat . It should be paid for with consumption taxes, not income taxes. That way every one pays, including the millions working under the table so to speak ,those earning but not claiming income. Those living off trust funds. Hookers, Drug Dealers, all elements of the unreported cash economy all pay, where they pay nothing now but of course use all the services.

As much as I like the consumption tax in principle (encouraging savings) it has some significant challenges.


#1 Its regressive.
People on minimum wage spend 100% of their income. I spend only about 35~40% of mine. Warren Buffet probably spends less than 1% of his.

#2 Our economy is driven by consumer spending.
Anything you do that discourages spending may theoretically slow the economy. Which sucks because if we ever actually fixed the retirement saving deficit we may put a lot of people out of their jobs selling us all this crap we don’t need... :(
 
Most likely in the next 12 months I will be having to get an ACA plan if they still exist. Its looks like $1000 a month for individual coverage similar to my Cobra coverage ( a High Deductible Health Care Plan). It is unlikely I will get a subsidy as my income from consulting and investments will put me over the limit. I expect it will be over 7.5% of my income so I can deduct the costs so a quick swag is 25% savings via a tax deduction for a net of around $9000 a year. Plus I will need to get some dental which appears to be about double of what my company plan costs so kick in $500 a year additional.

Right now I pay about $350 a month for Cobra. Barring me getting lucky and finding an alternative it means that my health care costs will be my biggest expense in a year and I will be paying it for about 5 years assuming that qualifying for medicare stays at 65. I know of other folks that have preexisting conditions and if not for ACA, they really cannot afford insurance.

If ACA ceases to exist then I am at the mercy of individual plans and several years ago they were approaching $1,500 a month. I expect they will not go down in cost as I expect many of the folks with preexisting conditions will be forced to buy the plans. The alternative is to buy short term insurance for catastrophic issues and hope that I don't end up with a long term condition as typically how these plans work is they cover the long term condition for the limited duration of the policy and exclude those conditions from payment when the next policy is written. The intent of ACA was to spread the high costs for long term condtions over a greater size pool by having everyone have to by insurance but with the recent changes in tax law the penalties are almost nill for not buying it.

Its easy to complain about ACA as most folks are covered by company plans. I know of folks who are Trump supporters who have changed their tune when they lose access to a company plan and have to look at ACA. Granted the system is not perfect and really should cut out the middlemen but the alternatives are far worse.

Ouch. I plugged the numbers for a couple age 60 with 100k income into the KFF calculator.

For NH I get $2200/mo for a silver plan.
For MA I get $1050/mo

Don’t know what to say, that is painful. I still have 15 years to go and I am deliberately putting more money in Roth accounts than a tax predictor would recommend so that if I retire early I can live of post tax savings and manipulate my income below the 400% FPL for the premium credits.

Sucks that we have to play these games, but I didn’t make the rules.
 
Interesting today that the Fed chairman specifically called out the current health care system as the source of the deficit.
 
I never thought i would see the day when your Health Insurance bill was more then your home mortgage.
 
Ours is almost nothing.
Yours is the same as the rest of us. Yours just not paying it directly. Mine was much cheaper when i self insured and just paid for services as i used them.