Inflation explanation

[begreen]

I do wonder how many of those complaining about these record profits are unknowingly benefitting from them, as part of any diversified 401k, IRA, or other retirement plan.

So, 'what's in it for me' justifies their largess?

Meanwhile, in Texas the NY Times reported today:
"Texas lawmakers are debating a range of bills that would mandate and subsidize more natural gas power plants, provide tax incentives for fossil fuels, punish renewables, and make it easier to stop clean energy projects."

 

[SpaceBus]

I do wonder how many of those complaining about these record profits are unknowingly benefitting from them, as part of any diversified 401k, IRA, or other retirement plan.

Those record profits are barely making a difference in those retirement accounts. You and I both know the BoD is who gets the actual profits.

That's pretty much the same argument as blaming alcoholism on breweries or distilleries. Or the people that sue McDonalds for making them fat.

Seems to me the auto industry and airline industry hold at least as much of the blame, for creating products that consume fossil fuels in excess in the first place.

The end consumer is the cause of 80% of the direct emissions and 100% of the overall emissions (referring to CO2 emissions from the consumption of oil and gas). If the consumer wouldn't purchase oil and gas(or products created from them), the companies to produce oil and gas wouldn't exist. At this point in time the science around climate change (or whatever the buzzword of the day is) is well known, the consumers have the facts and continue to make the same choices. Ignorance is not an excuse, if we want to hold oil and gas companies responsible for their environmental impact, then the same needs to apply to the general public.

This is a red herring argument. I was born into this world with no choice but to use fossil fuels. How else could I survive? Without being born into a social class that would afford me the means to live carbon neutral, I have to make due like the rest of us. However, even if I were somehow lucky enough to benefit from nepotism, that wealth certainly came from using fossil fuels in some way. With the exception of uncontacted tribes in remote forests, it is impossible to live without being connected to fossil fuels in some way.

Do you really believe what you have written?

 

[ABMax24]

This is a red herring argument. I was born into this world with no choice but to use fossil fuels. How else could I survive? Without being born into a social class that would afford me the means to live carbon neutral, I have to make due like the rest of us. However, even if I were somehow lucky enough to benefit from nepotism, that wealth certainly came from using fossil fuels in some way. With the exception of uncontacted tribes in remote forests, it is impossible to live without being connected to fossil fuels in some way.

Do you really believe what you have written?

Okay, by your same argument. I work in the oil and gas sector, where I live all jobs that pay a living wage are in the resource sector, most of those are the fossil fuel extraction and processing jobs. I work construction, I build processing plants for oil and gas. I was born into this, therefore I have no choice.

Except I don't believe this, I am an adult and I do have a choice. I choose to work in the oil and gas industry because it allows me to live the lifestyle I want to live. I understand that I only have a job because there is a market for the products we produce. If I were willing to make a lifestyle change I could go install solar panels, or wind turbines, or wood stoves. But I don't want to.

Same with many others, they choose to live in the suburbs and commute with a large SUV or pickup everyday, or have oversized house that require immense amounts of energy for heating and cooling. The Amish manage to survive quite fine with significantly less energy consumption than the average American.

The Tobacco industry is probably the best example of what I'm trying to show you. Look at the billions in lawsuits and fines and increased regulation. What convinced people to stop smoking? Education, you're not going to stop the use of fossil fuels by targeting the producers, you need to educate the consumers. This needs to come in tandem with innovation, incentivize the development of alternatives while at the same time educating the consumer on these new alternative to allow them to make better purchasing decisions.

 

[bholler]

Okay, by your same argument. I work in the oil and gas sector, where I live all jobs that pay a living wage are in the resource sector, most of those are the fossil fuel extraction and processing jobs. I work construction, I build processing plants for oil and gas. I was born into this, therefore I have no choice.

Except I don't believe this, I am an adult and I do have a choice. I choose to work in the oil and gas industry because it allows me to live the lifestyle I want to live. I understand that I only have a job because there is a market for the products we produce. If I were willing to make a lifestyle change I could go install solar panels, or wind turbines, or wood stoves. But I don't want to.

Same with many others, they choose to live in the suburbs and commute with a large SUV or pickup everyday, or have oversized house that require immense amounts of energy for heating and cooling. The Amish manage to survive quite fine with significantly less energy consumption than the average American.

The Tobacco industry is probably the best example of what I'm trying to show you. Look at the billions in lawsuits and fines and increased regulation. What convinced people to stop smoking? Education, you're not going to stop the use of fossil fuels by targeting the producers, you need to educate the consumers. This needs to come in tandem with innovation, incentivize the development of alternatives while at the same time educating the consumer on these new alternative to allow them to make better purchasing decisions.

I don't disagree with anything you said there. But that doesn't explain why we are giving subsidies to companies that make massive profits almost every year.

 

[ABMax24]

I don't disagree with anything you said there. But that doesn't explain why we are giving subsidies to companies that make massive profits almost every year.

National interest mostly. Intel and the $52 billion subsidy to move chip manufacturing back to the US comes to mind, why was it ever allowed to leave, and why not tell Intel it has to move manufacturing back or it can't operate in the US?

How about the banking sector? Why is the system allowed to regulate itself, fail, cause a global financial disaster, and then receives trillions in handouts? Oh, and then the rules that are put in place to prevent this from happening again are rolled back a decade later and bank collapse again.

I understand what you're getting at in relation to Fossil Fuels. But I've given my reasons as to why I could justify it, if that's not enough for you then that's fine. I personally think the entire US System is broken and needs a complete overhaul, this is just one very small aspect of it. In a perfect world items like this are addressed with legislation not subsidies, but it's been going on for so long now it's going to be near impossible to stop the flow of subsidies to corporations. Kinda like that bratty kid that needs a reward for everything, except the reward has to get bigger every time.

 

[stoveliker]

Okay, by your same argument. I work in the oil and gas sector, where I live all jobs that pay a living wage are in the resource sector, most of those are the fossil fuel extraction and processing jobs. I work construction, I build processing plants for oil and gas. I was born into this, therefore I have no choice.

Except I don't believe this, I am an adult and I do have a choice. I choose to work in the oil and gas industry because it allows me to live the lifestyle I want to live. I understand that I only have a job because there is a market for the products we produce. If I were willing to make a lifestyle change I could go install solar panels, or wind turbines, or wood stoves. But I don't want to.

Same with many others, they choose to live in the suburbs and commute with a large SUV or pickup everyday, or have oversized house that require immense amounts of energy for heating and cooling. The Amish manage to survive quite fine with significantly less energy consumption than the average American.

The Tobacco industry is probably the best example of what I'm trying to show you. Look at the billions in lawsuits and fines and increased regulation. What convinced people to stop smoking? Education, you're not going to stop the use of fossil fuels by targeting the producers, you need to educate the consumers. This needs to come in tandem with innovation, incentivize the development of alternatives while at the same time educating the consumer on these new alternative to allow them to make better purchasing decisions.

Education being the solution is the reason why fossil fuel companies finance and nurture so, sooooo much misinformation about climate change, why they lobby ("educate" lawmakers) so much.

Blame it all on education and work your hardest to avoid people being properly educated. A winning strategy, unfortunately.

 

[bholler]

National interest mostly. Intel and the $52 billion subsidy to move chip manufacturing back to the US comes to mind, why was it ever allowed to leave, and why not tell Intel it has to move manufacturing back or it can't operate in the US?

How about the banking sector? Why is the system allowed to regulate itself, fail, cause a global financial disaster, and then receives trillions in handouts? Oh, and then the rules that are put in place to prevent this from happening again are rolled back a decade later and bank collapse again.

I understand what you're getting at in relation to Fossil Fuels. But I've given my reasons as to why I could justify it, if that's not enough for you then that's fine. I personally think the entire US System is broken and needs a complete overhaul, this is just one very small aspect of it. In a perfect world items like this are addressed with legislation not subsidies, but it's been going on for so long now it's going to be near impossible to stop the flow of subsidies to corporations. Kinda like that bratty kid that needs a reward for everything, except the reward has to get bigger every time.

All good points and I have a problem with those things as well. But those examples are not payments made every single year. They were made in response to a specific event. But absolutely proper policy changes were not made to avoid repeats. The fossil fuel subsidies and policy are far from the only things I take issue with. Just the only thing we were talking about

 

[stoveliker]

I never knew pointing to mistakes elsewhere justifies to keep making mistakes in the issue under consideration...

Btw, that is my understanding of the meaning of a straw man argument.

 

[begreen]

The Tobacco industry is probably the best example of what I'm trying to show you. Look at the billions in lawsuits and fines and increased regulation. What convinced people to stop smoking? Education, you're not going to stop the use of fossil fuels by targeting the producers, you need to educate the consumers. This needs to come in tandem with innovation, incentivize the development of alternatives while at the same time educating the consumer on these new alternative to allow them to make better purchasing decisions.

That's a compelling argument, both industries are based on creating and nurturing an addiction to their products. And both are remaking themselves rapidly by developing new product lines and new markets. For the tobacco industry, it's vaping and third-world markets. For the fossil fuel industry, well they still have the fuel-hogging military and they are expanding the plastics industries as fast as they can build new refineries.

 

[woodgeek]

Getting back to the OP, I would say that there is Science and Art, and everything else is Politics.

My politics would be considered by most here as left of Begreen's.

To me, inflation is annoying, but a 'blip' in the grand scheme of things. In a long term trend, a 10-15% jog that will be forgotten in a few years.

I do believe that some industries are price gouging and that is a PART of the problem.

I have not seen credible evidence for the 'increasing the money supply' at the levels we have done can cause inflation. But ofc those models are wrong sometimes, as the model builders are quick to point out.

As for other causes, in addition to govt spending (much discussed) notice that employment is surging and at a historic high! Could it be that the salaries associated with different kinds of work have gotten high enough that people want to work again (after years of declining workforce participation)?

So, when there is a supply crunch for stuff, the stuff gets bid up to a higher price. And some price gouging can happen on top of that.

The problem with pernicious inflation is that people demand raises and higher salaries, and then inflation becomes self-fulfilling.

So, whatever the original trigger, the continuing of inflation is due to a shortage of skilled labor, which everyone agrees is happening.

On the political side, we can point out that the former guy reduced the flow of immigrant laborers into the country (documented and undocumented). This induces a shortage of labor across the system, which bids up the cost of labor... which causes inflation. This story makes BOTH political sides unhappy, bc CONs don't want to think that a healthy 2019 economy needed immigrants to function, and LIBs don't want to think that immigrants reduce the salaries of native-born americans. But maybe BOTH SIDES are wrong.

I'm sure it will all shake out shortly. What will the next 'crisis' be??

 

[woodgeek]

Regarding immigration to the US, some data from Pew:

So, its not just the former guy to blame for the reduction in undocumented migrants coming to the US. The decline happened under Barack's watch, setting the stage for a (low-cost) labor shortage and inflation pulse setting in later.

Also, note that this curve is not normalized against the US population... those earlier peaks would be bigger. Scientists point out that the surge of Latino population in the US is driven largely by the native born children of the immigrants that arrived during the Reagan years.

 

[Ashful]

Uh oh... Woodgeek used the "i" word.

Is it time to start taking bets now, on how many posts will pass before the mod's have to shut this one down?

 

[SpaceBus]

Regarding immigration to the US, some data from Pew:

So, its not just the former guy to blame for the reduction in undocumented migrants coming to the US. The decline happened under Barack's watch, setting the stage for a (low-cost) labor shortage and inflation pulse setting in later.

Also, note that this curve is not normalized against the US population... those earlier peaks would be bigger. Scientists point out that the surge of Latino population in the US is driven largely by the native born children of the immigrants that arrived during the Reagan years.

I wonder if the 2021 spike is really because expulsions were included into the count very suddenly.

Okay, by your same argument. I work in the oil and gas sector, where I live all jobs that pay a living wage are in the resource sector, most of those are the fossil fuel extraction and processing jobs. I work construction, I build processing plants for oil and gas. I was born into this, therefore I have no choice.

Except I don't believe this, I am an adult and I do have a choice. I choose to work in the oil and gas industry because it allows me to live the lifestyle I want to live. I understand that I only have a job because there is a market for the products we produce. If I were willing to make a lifestyle change I could go install solar panels, or wind turbines, or wood stoves. But I don't want to.

Same with many others, they choose to live in the suburbs and commute with a large SUV or pickup everyday, or have oversized house that require immense amounts of energy for heating and cooling. The Amish manage to survive quite fine with significantly less energy consumption than the average American.

The Tobacco industry is probably the best example of what I'm trying to show you. Look at the billions in lawsuits and fines and increased regulation. What convinced people to stop smoking? Education, you're not going to stop the use of fossil fuels by targeting the producers, you need to educate the consumers. This needs to come in tandem with innovation, incentivize the development of alternatives while at the same time educating the consumer on these new alternative to allow them to make better purchasing decisions.

My guy, the Amish do not live without the ever present fossil fuel industry. They buy steel made with coal like the rest of us. Please stop acting like it is possible to live without fossil fuels without being born into a culture that has yet to be exposed to it. Even native reindeer herders of Mongolia use products derived from coal or oil. I couldn't eat the food from the grocery store if I wanted to avoid FF. if I were to use my purchasing power to boycott FF I would dehydrate before starving to death.

Anyway, how exactly am I supposed to get my Amish fuels full of wheat and livestock without first being born into it or working away and using fossil fuels? At what point can I buy enough FF before I cut myself off and be morally correct enough for you? The inventor of the pen had to use something else first....

 

[Ashful]

As someone who actually deals with Amish on a very regular basis, both in daily life and business, I can tell you very few of them live without petrol and diesel. Most of the Amish contractors I deal with own and use 3/4 ton pickup trucks, although many are not allowed to operate the vehicle themselves, so they hire a teenager to chauffer them around in their own truck. Those working in trailer or furniture manufacturing are using tens of gallons of diesel per day to power their shop generators and compressors, as many are allowed to use pneumatics and electric, as long as they're not grid-tied.

I'd venture to say that most of the Amish I know use more petrol and diesel than I do, and that says a lot, given my usual vehicle preferences.

Living close to Lancaster, "Amish central" if there were such a thing, they've always fascinated me. If anyone wants to start a separate thread to discuss further, so as to not hijack this one, post the link back here so the rest of us can find it.

 

[begreen]

Do they use kerosene oil lamps?

 

[Ashful]

Do they use kerosene oil lamps?

Yes, many do. Honestly, it's a moving target, as economic pressure has forced many changes to their ways of life, and each church has responded differently to these pressures. They're no longer the homogeneous group operating under one set of rules, that they were many years ago.

 

[Ashful]

Many, maybe even most(?) still use horse and buggy, but many operating in the building trades have found it impractical. This diversification seems to have been instigated or accelerated by the rapid rise in land prices in the 1990's into the early 2000's, as their tradition was that a father would buy a farm for each of his sons, and the quickly-rising land prices made that impractical around that time. So, whereas their tradition was agriculture, many Amish churches and leaders began to accept their youth moving into manufacturing jobs. This is why you see so much furniture and trailer (campers, haulers, landscape) coming from Amish manufacture. But different churches within the Amish faith look differently at things like owning a vehicle, diesel generators and/or compressors. It's all become very diversified, which only makes it even more interesting, if not a little less quaint.

 

[begreen]

Back in the 60s my folks got a Shasta camper. It was sold as crafted by Amish hands. Like DS stoves, I can't imagine that happening without a lot of fossil fuel.

 

[SpaceBus]

Yes, many do. Honestly, it's a moving target, as economic pressure has forced many changes to their ways of life, and each church has responded differently to these pressures. They're no longer the homogeneous group operating under one set of rules, that they were many years ago.

From what I gather they were never really a homogeneous group. It just took a long time for tech to advance enough to apply pressure to individual churches. One of my coworkers grew up Mennonite and has Amish extended family.

 

[Ashful]

From what I gather they were never really a homogeneous group. It just took a long time for tech to advance enough to apply pressure to individual churches. One of my coworkers grew up Mennonite and has Amish extended family.

There have always been differences between Mennonite and Amish, more so than within either community in their earlier days. But to avoid dragging a thread meant to be about inflation off-course, I started a new thread:

The Anabaptists (Amish, Mennonite, Church of the Brethren)

From what I gather they were never really a homogeneous group. It just took a long time for tech to advance enough to apply pressure to individual churches. One of my coworkers grew up Mennonite and has Amish extended family. Moving the chat to a new thread, since this was pulling the...

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