Looks like CA drew the line on ICE engines 2035

[EbS-P]

I have no problem with growing pains in tech. My career is tech. But I have little tolerance for such issues with a car. Tesla's flagrant disregard for doing things responsibly is a big turn-off.

Tesla’s approach was/is a departure from the norm. It has benefits and drawbacks. I think the model S was sound. Probably more small defects due to learning how to manufacture than anything else. Model 3 was always going to be their high volume model but we stopped liking sedans. Hence the model Y. They are at every corner trying to cut costs. The Model X is an engineering marvel and at t he same time a piece of junk. My front axels need replaced at 25k miles. To save money they used fixed camber arms on the rear suspension. For and adjustable height suspension that by default lowers it self at speeds above 45 mph and won’t reset to normal right away. Look at a video of how to replace the 12 v battery. They made the falcon doors work but can’t get rid of a 12 v battery.

I think expectations were way to high. They priced them selves into the luxury segment but it wasn’t a luxury product. They are still in a growth at any cost phase. Growth over quality. They need to establish the profit per EV unit bar and have done a good job with that. Next phase will be quality and service I think. I think it will be interesting so see what the next 5 years brings. Will the release a major refresh or keep implementing small incremental improvements whenever they are ready.

 

[sneefy]

Tesla’s approach was/is a departure from the norm. It has benefits and drawbacks. I think the model S was sound. Probably more small defects due to learning how to manufacture than anything else. Model 3 was always going to be their high volume model but we stopped liking sedans. Hence the model Y. They are at every corner trying to cut costs. The Model X is an engineering marvel and at t he same time a piece of junk. My front axels need replaced at 25k miles. To save money they used fixed camber arms on the rear suspension. For and adjustable height suspension that by default lowers it self at speeds above 45 mph and won’t reset to normal right away. Look at a video of how to replace the 12 v battery. They made the falcon doors work but can’t get rid of a 12 v battery.

I think expectations were way to high. They priced them selves into the luxury segment but it wasn’t a luxury product. They are still in a growth at any cost phase. Growth over quality. They need to establish the profit per EV unit bar and have done a good job with that. Next phase will be quality and service I think. I think it will be interesting so see what the next 5 years brings. Will the release a major refresh or keep implementing small incremental improvements whenever they are ready.

Agreed on all fronts with the possible exception of the profit and subsidy model they have abused and their prospects as a company. I think that Tesla is in a bubble of their own making that is already starting to pop. They all of a sudden have lots of competition in the EV space and with vehicles that are better than Tesla. Once more luxury EVs become available, I think Tesla will really be hurting.

I would add that their usage of the term 'autopilot' is irresponsible as it it anything but. Growth over quality is a major problem in a 4500lb chunk of metal with passengers flying down the road. The 'move fast and break things' model is grossly irresponsible in the context of passenger vehicles.

 

[woodgeek]

The EV infrastructure shift will be a massive undertaking. More broadly, until we fully embrace nuclear (or invent an alternative that has low cost AND low raw material requirements (mining) AND is rapidly scalable) mass electrification simply won't happen anywhere near the proposed targets.

Yeah, I guess I don't see why.

For the EVs, the money builds a factory, and leads to opening a mine (or reopening or expanding an existing mine), then the product brings in more money. If the market is there (and it seems to be) then the whole enterprise scales as it has for earlier technology changes. All of the necessary elements are available in geologic deposits in the required amounts.

For powering the thing, not clear why you think we need nukes to run EVs. EVs and renewables 'play well' together, bc EVs can be dispatched to charge when renewables are present, and most can be charged every few days... so a cloudy day or two (let alone nightfall) doesn't matter. PV is made out of earth abundant elements (silicon, aluminum, oxygen being the major components of the earths crust), and pays back the energy to make it in <2 years. This means that PV can 'self-power' its own manufacturing and deployment if it has exponential growth slower than doubling every 3-4 years (about 25% CAGR).

And a full EV fleet doesn't even require much new grid capacity, because, as noted by California, it can charge during low demand periods.

All of the above has been worked out by professionals and engineers, contrary to a lot of click-bait youtubers on the other side.

 

[EbS-P]

Agreed on all fronts with the possible exception of the profit and subsidy model they have abused and their prospects as a company. I think that Tesla is in a bubble of their own making that is already starting to pop. They all of a sudden have lots of competition in the EV space and with vehicles that are better than Tesla. Once more luxury EVs become available, I think Tesla will really be hurting.

I would add that their usage of the term 'autopilot' is irresponsible as it it anything but. Growth over quality is a major problem in a 4500lb chunk of metal with passengers flying down the road. The 'move fast and break things' model is grossly irresponsible in the context of passenger vehicles.

As a company the intellectual property they have is years ahead of any competition. The mega castings are a revolutionary manufacturing step. Yeah I think they have over played their hand and as an owner of a nearly 6 year old car with full self driving I’m irked. But when I acquired it I was not expecting to have access to FSD beta. And I’m not sure I ever will as it will mean Tesla will have to upgrade on their dime many hardware components. And with those in short supply I don’t see that happening for at least 12 months. I still think once you figure in the charging network they are still the best EV manufacturer. Just look at their efficiency numbers. Others aren’t close. Battery tech they are ahead. Motor tech winning there. Structural batteries that are installed with the seats already attached. Yep that’s saving them money. They are more profitable per unit than Any other manufacturer EV or ICE.

 

[SpaceBus]

Yeah, I guess I don't see why.

For the EVs, the money builds a factory, and leads to opening a mine (or reopening or expanding an existing mine), then the product brings in more money. If the market is there (and it seems to be) then the whole enterprise scales as it has for earlier technology changes. All of the necessary elements are available in geologic deposits in the required amounts.

For powering the thing, not clear why you think we need nukes to run EVs. EVs and renewables 'play well' together, bc EVs can be dispatched to charge when renewables are present, and most can be charged every few days... so a cloudy day or two (let alone nightfall) doesn't matter. PV is made out of earth abundant elements (silicon, aluminum, oxygen being the major components of the earths crust), and pays back the energy to make it in <2 years. This means that PV can 'self-power' its own manufacturing and deployment if it has exponential growth slower than doubling every 3-4 years (about 25% CAGR).

And a full EV fleet doesn't even require much new grid capacity, because, as noted by California, it can charge during low demand periods.

All of the above has been worked out by professionals and engineers, contrary to a lot of click-bait youtubers on the other side.

I'm pretty certain all the hand wringing over EV range and "the grid" are just propaganda from those who profit by keeping fossil fueled vehicles on the road. I get that Americans want to have the ability to go on a long road trip at the drop of a hat, but even in a rural area most could live with 150-300 miles of actual range on the vehicle. You could easily put 70+ miles a day on a car here driving to work, but that's right in line with charging every other day and a 150+ mile range. People may even end up driving an EV more than they would normally drive an ICE due to the significantly lower cost per mile driven. Even my wife's 500 Abarth averaging 38-40 MPG cost $0.14/mile, an EV would crush that. An EV charged with private solar would be almost free to drive.

 

[EbS-P]

Yeah, I'm fully acknowledge naturally a skeptic. Definitely not a techno-optimist. I've read too much science fiction for that, lol.

I'm also pretty risk averse and conservative (small c) so the current jumping off the cliff towards electrification is problematic. The EV infrastructure shift will be a massive undertaking. More broadly, until we fully embrace nuclear (or invent an alternative that has low cost AND low raw material requirements (mining) AND is rapidly scalable) mass electrification simply won't happen anywhere near the proposed targets.

I trust Jason’s numbers. Yes we need to expand but that was needed even without electric cars.

 

[peakbagger]

Hondas spending 310 million to scale up solid state batteries https://www.thedrive.com/news/honda-exec-says-lithium-ion-evs-wont-ever-be-as-cheap-as-gas-cars
That is their bet for low cost EVs. Toyota is also betting on them.

 

[SpaceBus]

Hondas spending 310 million to scale up solid state batteries https://www.thedrive.com/news/honda-exec-says-lithium-ion-evs-wont-ever-be-as-cheap-as-gas-cars
That is their bet for low cost EVs. Toyota is also betting on them.

Does it even matter when the TCO is significantly lower for EV vs ICE, and going down every year (or rather ICE is going up)? Any study I find that says otherwise was crafted to make the ICE less expensive to drive by assuming high percentage of commercial charging, charging away from home, assuming the owner makes well above the average (much less median) income, among many other things.

 

[SpaceBus]

I trust Jason’s numbers. Yes we need to expand but that was needed even without electric cars.

If anything EVs give a substantial impetus to upgrade the grid. Maybe big auto MFG's would be incentivized to invest into the grid as well.

 

[EbS-P]

If anything EVs give a substantial impetus to upgrade the grid. Maybe big auto MFG's would be incentivized to invest into the grid as well.

They should focus on reliable charging infrastructure. But Tesla is really uniquely positioned with their power products. Mega Batteries, residential batteries, solar, and cars to enter the utility space.

 

[stoveliker]

I'm not sure. Utility space is an environment that would compete on price. Tesla does not do that.

 

[EbS-P]

I'm not sure. Utility space is an environment that would compete on price. Tesla does not do that.

But if you are a power supplier on the spot market that’s where the premium prices are paid and if you have idle grid connected capacity that you manage through your network it’s possible. You are correct they really just want to sell and be be done but at some point they will have considerable grid connected capacity that is already on their network.

 

[begreen]

But if you are a power supplier on the spot market that’s where the premium prices are paid and if you have idle grid connected capacity that you manage through your network it’s possible. You are correct they really just want to sell and be be done but at some point they will have considerable grid connected capacity that is already on their network.

In Australia, Tesla set up the grid power supplement for one state.

Introducing Megapack: Utility-Scale Energy Storage

Less than two years ago, Tesla built and installed the world’s largest lithium-ion battery in Hornsdale, South Australia, using Tesla Powerpack batteries. Since then, the facility saved nearly $40 million in its first year alone and helped to stabilize and balance the region’s unreliable grid.

www.tesla.com

 

[SpaceBus]

They should focus on reliable charging infrastructure. But Tesla is really uniquely positioned with their power products. Mega Batteries, residential batteries, solar, and cars to enter the utility space.

I'm sure legacy MFGs will get into at least the residential energy market, just like Tesla is doing. It only makes sense.

 

[begreen]

I'm sure legacy MFGs will get into at least the residential energy market, just like Tesla is doing. It only makes sense.

Some are already there or at least, they are supplying the battery packs inside.

 

[SpaceBus]

These massive corporations can use their R&D budgets to do anything. The big oil companies are taking money from governments to research renewables, because they know that they can spend their profits on anything and go in a totally different direction, like Siemens switching from Zyklon to electronics.

 

[woodgeek]

I'm pretty certain all the hand wringing over EV range and "the grid" are just propaganda from those who profit by keeping fossil fueled vehicles on the road. I get that Americans want to have the ability to go on a long road trip at the drop of a hat, but even in a rural area most could live with 150-300 miles of actual range on the vehicle. You could easily put 70+ miles a day on a car here driving to work, but that's right in line with charging every other day and a 150+ mile range. People may even end up driving an EV more than they would normally drive an ICE due to the significantly lower cost per mile driven. Even my wife's 500 Abarth averaging 38-40 MPG cost $0.14/mile, an EV would crush that. An EV charged with private solar would be almost free to drive.

I am confident that that is the case, but not going to argue it without evidence (which was ultimately found in the case of Tobacco and AGW denial).

Its the same pattern...

First, Solar won't work, Then solar is too small. Then Solar doesn't work at night (and batteries suck). Then solar is bad for the environment. Then not enough minerals to make the required PV panels. Then finally solar will break 'the grid'.

Except now it's EV's don't work. Then there are very few EVs sold. Then EVs don't work for road trips (and DCFC suck). Then EVs are bad for the environment. Then not enough minerals to make the required EVs. And now EVs will break the grid.

Someone is getting paid to push this chit. I'd suspect the same law firms that pushed the Tobacco and AGW denial (that were the same law firms BTW).

 

[ericm979]

Some of the same scientists who were paid by the tobacco industry to cast doubt on the dangers of smoking were later paid by the oil industry to cast doubt on climate change. They're probably now also casting doubt on solar power and electric cars as you describe. The techniques used are the same.

The tobacco and climate change part is documented in this book: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7799004-merchants-of-doubt

It's a depressing read.

 

[SpaceBus]

Some of the same scientists who were paid by the tobacco industry to cast doubt on the dangers of smoking were later paid by the oil industry to cast doubt on climate change. They're probably now also casting doubt on solar power and electric cars as you describe. The techniques used are the same.

The tobacco and climate change part is documented in this book: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7799004-merchants-of-doubt

It's a depressing read.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck...
Unbelievable that anyone believes these corporations when they all literally use the same people to spread lies .

 

[peakbagger]

But if you are a power supplier on the spot market that’s where the premium prices are paid and if you have idle grid connected capacity that you manage through your network it’s possible. You are correct they really just want to sell and be be done but at some point they will have considerable grid connected capacity that is already on their network.

I have a Tesla 1.6 MWh battery sitting in Mass installed as part of a project. Its primary purpose is to charge up with excess power from a natural gas generator supplying an industrial plant. A firm located remotely from the site controls it to discharge into the grid when the utility tells them that there is a short term need for more power in the area. It can put out 500 KW of power into the grid for 3 hours although its biggest demand is for short term events. It does not not replace the grid it just gives it a "push" when it needs help. This saves having to put on "dirty" generation like a peaker plant which typically is a jet engine generator that runs on jet fuel. peaker plant is designed to start up quick and put out a lot of power in small space be most of the energy going into it comes out as heat which goes up the stack. Along with the heat is lots of CO2 so if you look at the CO2 produced per KW its a high value.

The natural gas generator we are using for the factory is connected to a heat recovery system that collects heat from the engine radiator, the oil cooler, the turbocharger air and the engine exhaust to make steam and hot water so the factory does not have to run a boiler to make this steam and hot water. So if you add up the amount of natural gas and CO2 produced to make the combination of electric power and heat its far less than a generator and a boiler doing it separately. The combined efficiency is in about 65%. If the factory had more use for warm water we could squeeze out more. Its a balancing act at the factory, sometimes they need more heat and less power so we can charge up the battery with the extra power or if they need more power and less heat we can pull power from the battery (or the grid if the price is power is cheap). This allows up to waste less fuel.

By the way, new peaker plants in CA are being built in CA to back up the grid and they are being installed with big battery banks. For short term grid events they just discharge the batteries and may not even start up the jets. Only when the batteries start to run down in capacity do they start the jet for long term power issues. Normally the battery recharges off the grid once the demand drops. Those batteries just sit there normally so why not replace them with a bunch of small batteries sitting in cars in driveways and parking lots?. Obviously not all of those car batteries are available all the time but some percentage are at any given moment. The current problem is controlling all these individual car batteries and getting them to put power into the grid is a work in progress. Much of the grid is designed to go one way, from a power station to user, if a user tries to put power back into the grid, the grid is not set up to take it and various safety systems have to researched and then up graded in the grid before it can happen. The grid is arguably the most complex machine on the planet, there is not just one generator and one set of wires, there are numerous generators and wires and what wires are in use in any given moment change for every user. Some of the grid is still running on technology left over from when the grid was originally built more than 100 years ago so upgrading it takes a long time and money.

Money spent on batteries and grid upgrade for batteries is money not spent on new power plants, new gas lines and new gas wells. Lots of middleman get cut out the picture and lots of money gets lost, some people make a lot of money on the new tech and lots loose on the old. Lots of stranded infrastructure and the opportunities shift, new tech generally requires educated skilled workers to implement and the folks drilling oil and gas wells or working in coal mines may not be interested or able to get retrained and relocate to where the demand is. Thus, there is a large, entrenched industry that would rather not a new grid emerges, they would rather keep the status quo so they invest some of their profits in keeping the status quo. PR firms are hired, and they come up with campaigns to support the companies who paid them. They do things like making sure that news headlines like the recent one asking "EV owners in CA to avoid charging their batteries during certain peak periods labor day weekend" to "EV owners in CA to avoid charging their batteries labor day weekend" and then inserting commentary below the edited headline supporting their campaign that EVs are bad and fossil power is good. Most people probably didnt even seem to notice the removal of "during certain peak periods" but that the PR folks use it to their advantage. Its the big lie concept so well known of late, keep saying the same lie enough times and at least subconsciously, everyone calls in question if the lie has to be true as they have heard it so often. There are plenty of facebook, twitter and tik tok bots available to rent to amplify any lie someone is willing to pay for. Do it right and the people reading this stuff comes to believe that this is their own opinion because its been worded in way that makes it look like it lines up with their interests. Look how successful Qanon has been putting out outrageous lies and some folks believe it as it lines up with their dystopian view of the world.

 

[Rusty18]

So 10 years ago or so US Well Service was running their fracturing equipment off of electric (they were working for Antero in the Marcellus play in wv at that time). Don’t have the pics to prove it or any idea of specs on the electrical equipment but they had natural gas fired generators on the edge of the well pad that fed trailer mounted transformers then feeders out to the various pieces of equipment. The pumps normally had v16 Cummins or v12 Detroit’s on them and normally had 20 of them tied together for a frac. (We could easily burn 2000 gal of diesel an hour but dang it sounded good)
Granted they weren’t using batteries and they had some kinks to work out in the beginning but USWS smoked everyone else on pricing so we are all gone and they are still in business.

99% of the pump jacks and compressors run on electric motors.
I’ll guarantee all the equipment in the refineries run on electric and have for at least 70 years.

I think something else to consider is the vast majority of consumers. It seems like people on here have a pretty good idea of how their vehicle works. I’d argue the average person who buys a car today can’t even pop the hood let alone care what makes it go...but that is a rabbit hole on its own.

Disclaimer I’ve got oil and gas business in my blood going back over 100 years and never would have thought anything would replace it. But I pay the bills working as an instrumentation/electrical tech. Starved out chasing drilling rigs about 6 years back.

My $0.02

 

[woodgeek]

Came across this site that computed EV CO2 emissions by zipcode....

Beyond Tailpipe Emissions: Results

This calculator allows you to estimate the total GHG emissions that would be associated with operating an electric vehicle or plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, including GHG emissions from the production and distribution of electricity used to power the vehicle.

www.fueleconomy.gov

It suggests I emit 90g CO2/mile versus 410g CO2/mile for an average ICE car. NOTE: this is only the emissions for propulsion, not manufacturing.

You can put in the EV of your choice and your zipcode.

-----------------------

Drilling in, it also reports the emissions of my local grid, RFC-East:

Power Profiler | US EPA

This tool allows users to enter in their zip code and compare their local air emission rates for electricity against the national average, as well as the air emission impact of your electricity use.

www.epa.gov

Which is 50% nat gas, 36% nukes, 8% coal with few renewables. Makes sense with the large amount of fracked gas and legacy nukes in PA. Given that nukes are not throttled, I expect my overnight baseload is even higher nuke fraction, and so I'm even lower emissions than 90g/mile.

You can check out your own grid.

 

[peakbagger]

So 10 years ago or so US Well Service was running their fracturing equipment off of electric (they were working for Antero in the Marcellus play in wv at that time). Don’t have the pics to prove it or any idea of specs on the electrical equipment but they had natural gas fired generators on the edge of the well pad that fed trailer mounted transformers then feeders out to the various pieces of equipment. The pumps normally had v16 Cummins or v12 Detroit’s on them and normally had 20 of them tied together for a frac. (We could easily burn 2000 gal of diesel an hour but dang it sounded good)
Granted they weren’t using batteries and they had some kinks to work out in the beginning but USWS smoked everyone else on pricing so we are all gone and they are still in business.

99% of the pump jacks and compressors run on electric motors.
I’ll guarantee all the equipment in the refineries run on electric and have for at least 70 years.

I think something else to consider is the vast majority of consumers. It seems like people on here have a pretty good idea of how their vehicle works. I’d argue the average person who buys a car today can’t even pop the hood let alone care what makes it go...but that is a rabbit hole on its own.

Disclaimer I’ve got oil and gas business in my blood going back over 100 years and never would have thought anything would replace it. But I pay the bills working as an instrumentation/electrical tech. Starved out chasing drilling rigs about 6 years back.

My $0.02

I was looking at some tech in place of batteries that used ultra capacitors which was developed for oil and gas. Apparently the load demand at a drill site varies considerably, with no storage on site the owners have to idle lots of diesels just in case there is a load surge. This tech charged up a bank of capacitors to cover the surges and that meant they could have far fewer diesels idling. It was getting rolled out when the last gas drilling surge collapsed. Not sure if they survived the big drop in drilling.

 

[EbS-P]

I would think that EV manufacturers would have to change battery warranty if a significant percentage of users were drawing down a significant charge on a regular basis. Technology may improve and they can keep the current warranty but if used less than 20 days a year it would be insignificant

 

[peakbagger]

Lithium batterys also deteriorate with age. They could be sitting in a warehouse not being used and they will lose capacity. Note even in warehouse most big grid type batteries have to be connected to power on occasion as the have internal loads to run the BMS and heating and cooling systems if they get out of operating range.