Maine do not be fooled by dropping heating oil prices its not sustainable

[control1]

A lot of projects are being cancelled because oil at $44 is not profitable .The Canadian oil sands need prices closer to $70 a barrell
to be profitable some of these projects have been shut down.Saudi can produce oil for about $2 a barrell.Venezula needs close to $50 a barrell to be profitable. Here is my prediction : Production falls from 86 m barrells per day to 80 m barrells to try and get in line with demand could even go to 75m barrells per day.But when the world economy turns around probably next July or August the demand will soar and the supply will not be there thus a fast and furious spike in prices again.We could see prices back over $100 a barrell again.Do not give up on pellets it is your only hedge against this scenario.Any takers on this prediction.
Joe

 

[SmokeyTheBear]

yardleypa,

In case you haven't noticed demand is going to drop even more throughout all of next year. Try 2011 at the earliest for anything like a major increase in demand from an even lower point than now.

We aren't giving up on pellets. Actually a better hedge is just plain ole wood, if the pellet makers get too big for their britches I have just a few trees on the lot that could be fed to the flames.

The world economy used to catch a cold when we had a little hiccup here in the US, this time around we have a major case of the flu, which being nice folks we are sharing and it is causing major downturns all over the globe. We no buy, they no make, just ask the hundreds of factories in China that are closing down how that is working out for them.

 

[slls]

I am burning oil today, can't beat the price. There is nothing like central heating, pellets when oil is too high.
I had to go back to 05 to see oil prices like now.

 

[j00fek]

people should know that this is the time to save your money and upgrade you central heating systems to anything but oil

 

[scott_cuddy]

I am burning oil today, can't beat the price. There is nothing like central heating, pellets when oil is too high.
I had to go back to 05 to see oil prices like now.

While it's true that oil prices are low, buying local pellets works for all of us, buying foreign oil works for none of us. I burn oil as a backup, but I'm looking at continuing to move away from it. As of right now, my mix is roughly 60/40 pellets to oil, my goal is 90/10 for next year. This is a great time to upgrade away from oil to cord-wood, pellets or even LNG. The less oil we cause to come out of the ground, the better!

 

[webbie]

I think oil will go up at some point, but the price of pellets has also varied widely. We had reports here this year from 165 to 330 - a wide variance.

I have bets on oil going up, but at the same time even a price of $75 or $80 would still have heating oil very competitive with pellets in the Northeast. Those who use their stoves for many reasons, including liking the fire, the renewable part, space heat, etc. always have a reason to burn. Also, if you already have a stove paid for, why not hedge your bets.

At the same time, it is tough to take on a $4000 stove along with the work and yearly service, etc. etc. based JUST on no real savings or a potentially small one. If history is any guide, pellet stove sales will slow greatly after the current back orders are filled.

 

[lessoil]

We bought 200 gals of liquid OPEC gold last Summer for $800. OUCH!
Current oil price here is $2.49/gal. Was $2.69/gal last Winter.
We bought 4 tons of pellets for $1200. (Athens)
They burn hot but leave a heavy ash behind.
I want to support a local company so hope they get their issues fixed before next Winter.

We are burning pellets and oil is for backup/hot water.
No regrets on the pellet stove purchase.

 

[mnoack]

A lot of projects are being cancelled because oil at $44 is not profitable .The Canadian oil sands need prices closer to $70 a barrell
to be profitable some of these projects have been shut down.Saudi can produce oil for about $2 a barrell.Venezula needs close to $50 a barrell to be profitable. Here is my prediction : Production falls from 86 m barrells per day to 80 m barrells to try and get in line with demand could even go to 75m barrells per day.But when the world economy turns around probably next July or August the demand will soar and the supply will not be there thus a fast and furious spike in prices again.We could see prices back over $100 a barrell again.Do not give up on pellets it is your only hedge against this scenario.Any takers on this prediction.
Joe

I agree completely - although I think you are optimistic about when prices will go up.

 

[slls]

I agree, more like 2010. There is a big mess that needs to be cleaned up, before it gets back to normal.

 

[Lobstah]

Actually, it was more like Canadian Gold. They are the number one importer to this country.

Jimb

 

[mnoack]

Actually, it was more like Canadian Gold. They are the number one importer to this country.

Jimb

While it is true that Canada is our number one supplier, they only account for about 13.5% of our imported oil. They are followed closely by Saudi Arabia, & Mexico, each at 10%, then Venezuela at about 8%.

(broken link removed)

Mark

 

[tumbles]

I'm burning out of principle right now. I realize oil at $1.87 is cheaper than it has been. However, if we don't change our habits, they're going to continually have us literally over a "barrel". I love the heat of the pellet stove. I've been without power for two days (luckily have a generator) and the pellets stove worked great. A lot less pull on the generator. I'm even burning the Athens pellets and getting decent heat out of it. It was 23 degrees last night and my house was 78. I will continue to use oil for my DHW and back up for if me pellet stove goes down. Otherwise I'll continue to burn pellets. I love the heat and the look of the fire. Yes, it has a little maintenance but it's minimal. I hope pellet prices come down and people stick with it. We'll need oil for years to come, but I'm going to do my part to lessen our dependence on oil.

 

[Lobstah]

"However, if we don’t change our habits, they’re going to continually have us literally over a “barrel”. "

See...I think the habits we need to change are those of our own politicians. The "hired help", as Will Rogers used to call them, have NOT acted in a manner that we have asked them to, they have NOT acted in our best interests. And THAT'S the habit that needs to change. These people need to be held accountable. Their approval rating is at ?...

Time to go after the tea again...

Jim

 

[JohnnyAsbury]

Burn coal like I am....its even cheaper.

 

[Jakethepup]

I sure am not trying to high jack this thread at all, but I just wanted to voice my options and thoughts. I made up my mind earlier this summer that I wanted to help heat my home with some type of alternate fuel, thinking that the price of propane would only increase as winter approached. This summer I locked in at 2.79 a gallon and paid for the whole winter supply. Even if the price decreases I gambled it would go higher, so now it is cheaper, so at least for me I am saving a little bit of money using the pellet insert, but if you factor everything in, like the cost of the stove pellets, electric cost to run the stove and a little bit of labor to keep the stove running, I truly am not saving very much, but I still think there is some savings, and with the stove my furnace does not run very much at all, which makes me happy. Not every room is toasty warm but is not really any colder than running the furnace since we keep the thermostat at 68 degrees. I think the price will increase once again and we will be in the same situation as last summer unless as a nation we start taking action and find different alterative resources.

We as a nation are spoiled, every thing has to instate gratification, and unless the price is outrageously high we continue to do business as usual. Not until the price of gas went to 4.00 a gallon did this nation change their habits.
With gas and heating oils prices going lower that also will have affects later on in our future. When prices are cheap the, Government nor do individual consider alterative fuels, research and funding decrease and we still have the problem it is just not right at this time. If you noticed when fuel was high every night on the news there was at least one segment about alternative energy, now with lower prices you seen nothing about this. I don’t know how many times I saw solar panels and scientist talking about development of full spectrum panel to make electric out of all spectrum of light, now I hear nothing about this. Also what ever happened to the concept of using water to run our cars, I remember this back in the late 70’s but it was highly explosive but in the 30 years after, you hear nothing about this. There is no way our government wants our cars to run on water, there will not be much profit in that. Unless, they make some type of high grade spring water mix for ours cars.

Sorry for the long post, I am glad the gas and oil prices are cheaper but I am also glad I purchased the pellet insert, at least I feel I have done at least one thing this year to help conserve some fuel, and to help the environment just a little. If solar energy comes within reach in my life time I for one would hop on that band wagon also, and I would love to help feed the grid for my use and others.

 

[AlaskaCub]

No doubt that a fella can only question the multi thousand dollar investment in a Pellet stove and pellets at a time that pellets cost more than heating oil does. The way I look at it right now is its costing me $300 a month to heat my house on oil or it cost me $300 a month to heat my house on pellets. Right now I am supplementing my heat for comfort with the Pellet stove, but its really a wash $$$ wise! The heating oil I buy comes from Alaskan oil so I have no guilt in buying it.

 

[ssupercoolss]

i spent close to 5k instaling my wood boiler. no regrets. wood is frre for me. oil would have to get to about a buck to make wood undesirable. i feel having plenty of options available for heat is the way to go. i heat with - 1. wood boiler(central heat is the best) 2 - pellet stove(awesome for those 40 and above days for heating) 3 - oil - (just when i am away)

 

[webbie]

I don't see where regrets are necessary for most. My thoughts are that the only regrets might be folks who borrowed a lot of money and bought a stove....and then found out they don't like the lifestyle or dust, etc. - maybe they could have used that money to upgrade their insulation or for a new conventional boilers. etc.

But, having been in this business since 1978 (and burning since 1972), I don't use the price of fuel as my main reason for alt energy. Yeah, maybe over the long...long run. But this ice storm reminds me of the BIG one....I think back in 1996 or so, when everyone was out of power and heat for a week or more. My customers came in the shop and said their neighbors were LIVING in their house (by invitation) due to their nice coal stove! There was a time when Nat Gas even stopped flowing, although that is a real rarity.

 

[ssupercoolss]

i agree - for some reason i keep reading tons of post about people saying they fell for the pellet stove scam. i never knew pellet stoves were a scam. i dont know.....maybe for some reason they were told they wouldnt have to clean it, buy pellets, fill it, store pellets....i mean there is some work involved with burning any type of wood.

 

[webbie]

Well, it is a scam if you went into it with that view....and, yes, a lot of people do and did.

I have had people on this forum who were amazed, after buying their stove, that it used electricity (would not work in a power failure)......so I think the idea is for folks to do their research.

Taking most buying scenarios...
1. Big box - no, they were not told about cleaning
2. Internet direct - no, they were not told about cleaning
3. Specialty retailer - given the lines and people running in this year, chances are most (or many) customers were not fully educated

That is what happens in a "crisis" such as we had this spring. In the retail business....when someone is waiting in line and shoving money at you...it is highly doubtful that you will tell them to stop...and then educate them and tell them to think about it.