More pellet shortages talk............

[MCPO]

.............will probably only help serve to increase prices even more.
Here`s the headlines this morning.

http://www.berkshireeagle.com/ci_10467589

 

[webbie]

Good thing oil went under $95 a bbl today. We should see prices as low as $3.00 in a week if this continues. At that price, it would be silly for most people to make a Quest to find expensive pellets.

Oil has now come down 35% in price, the equiv of pellets going from $300 to $200. I expect pellets to fall fast once people get the idea that they are not cheap.....at $300. Then again, we have a lot of people taking delivery of stoves...who want fuel at almost any price...and that will keep some pressure on.

This year is another example of "buy early" in the pellet fuel business.

 

[imacman]

Good thing oil went under $95 a bbl today. We should see prices as low as $3.00 in a week if this continues. At that price, it would be silly for most people to make a Quest to find expensive pellets.

While that is true for the people who haven't yet bought their heating oil for the winter, some people (like me) who either bought their oil never thinking it would go back down, or had dealers rush out to their house and filled their tank (like mine did when they realized the price was going to plummet), may be willing to spend a little more than "normal" (whatever that is) to save that expensive oil in their tank for when they REALLY need it (emergency).

500 gal of oil that I paid $4.14/gal for doesn't hurt so much when it's spread out over a year instead of 3-4 months.

 

[tkirk22]

I wonder how many people are going to cancel their stove orders.

I wouldn't blame them. It seems to me that many dealers are taking orders without deposits and not giving firm delivery dates or firm prices.

 

[MainePellethead]

I love the fact of having two options for heat......if oil should plummet more....i will burn oil.....i will not burn pellets if they dont drop with oil. Whichever is cheaper I will burn

 

[imacman]

I wonder how many people are going to cancel their stove orders.

I wouldn't blame them. It seems to me that many dealers are taking orders without deposits and not giving firm delivery dates or firm prices.

While what you said is more than likely true, if you are in that situation why not just sit back and see what happens? If the stove shows up, and you didn't have to leave a deposit, you can always cancel it then. Or you could take it......you don't think heating oil is going to stay where it is, do you?? All we need is one pipeline, weather, or Middle East problem and the price will shoot right back up.....THEN people will kick themselves for not being a little more patient and getting the pellet/wood stove for "insurance".

My 2 cents.

 

[MCPO]

This year I have plenty of pellets to last the winter especially since it`s just supplemental but next spring we will again have to plan for which way we think the pellet industry and oil costs are headed for the following year.
It`s like it`s gonna be up an for review kind of thing every year.

 

[GVA]

who would have thought that pellets would be like the wii and sell out in a day

 

[2c3d]

hey folks;

we have a 1400 sq. home in northern N.J. purchased in 1991.....heating oil at that time was .77 cents per gallon....hot water baseboard and instant hot water from furnace (no seperate hot water tank)....average oil consumption for the year 600 gal......installed quad castile free standing oct. 04....cost for stove and install $ 2,700.00....heating whole house including cost of pellets over oil we saved $700.00 in the first yr.....same savings for winter of 05-06....with oil skyrocketing for winter of 06-07 we saved $ 1,200.00 over oil including cost pellets...stove paid for itself after 3 yrs....we had 150 gal. of heating oil delivered last week, only to heat hot water and for backup for pellet stove...cost $530.00....cost for 600 gal. would have been 2,120.00...

we purchased 4 ton. pellets at tsc. @ $225.00 in june...cost $900.00....savings to heat our home this yr. with pellets $1,220.00 verses oil...a no brainer....

 

[kketterer]

I just got my pellets N.E softwood. From squire in Monson MA 289/ton plus 17bucks tom delivery to my garage......I was on the list for a month.

 

[mbcijim]

Good thing oil went under $95 a bbl today. We should see prices as low as $3.00 in a week if this continues. At that price, it would be silly for most people to make a Quest to find expensive pellets.

Oil has now come down 35% in price, the equiv of pellets going from $300 to $200. I expect pellets to fall fast once people get the idea that they are not cheap.....at $300. Then again, we have a lot of people taking delivery of stoves...who want fuel at almost any price...and that will keep some pressure on.

This year is another example of "buy early" in the pellet fuel business.

Some people I've listened to on here refer to there pellet/wood/coal stove as a space heater. While it appears that oil/pellets are on going to be very soon on an even cost/BTU, what about the fact that people aren't heating their whole homes, and just a few rooms with a stove?

I had the same conversation with a propane fireplace dealer. As we know propane is through the roof price wise, yet, this propane fireplace guy says all his customers are happy. People are saving money because they aren't heating the whole house anymore, just the portion they occupy most of the time, and hence, saving money.

I don't think your argument holds weight against that particular group of customers.

 

[glacialhills]

using that thinking, If you have a gas furnace why not just shut off the registers to most the rooms and just heat the couple rooms needed? that way you dont need to buy a propane fireplace at all? We are gonna burn wood cause we like to actually be warm in the house in the winter and not huddle under blankets and still spend 3000 bucks on propane.

 

[drizler]

I be holdin out to the bitter end. Let em drink the crap for what they are getting for it. I have all the pellets I need for the year and about 7 gallons of oil best I can figure. Since I only use the boiler as an oversized water heater for the separate tank we use only about 10 gallons every 27 - 30 days who cares. I can go to the local gas station and fill a couple cans with diesel sometime around the end of the month and just wait em out. I don't even mind paying $4.18 a gallon for that little bit. Sometime later on when its a more civil price I am going to splurge and buy 100 gallons for hot water and as a backup but thats it.

 

[crausch]

I live in south-central PA and I am one on the lucky pellet stove newbies that bought one of the last stoves my dealer had. They were also able to deliver pellets along with the stove ($269/tn for Turman Harwood). I have high hopes that the shortage is short term as it appears many stove manufacturers and pellet manufacturers were caught off-guard. I took a trip across the state this weekend and I noticed sign after sign of people selling pellets (not sure if they actually had any though). What I have determined is that there appear to thousands of brands of pellets. My dealer recommended I look for those that abide by the Pellet Fuel Institute standards. After reading everything on their site, I would recommend this too.

There is a pellet manufacturer near by called Energex. Supposed to be one of the largest. I contacted them directly about the shortage. Perhaps if others do the same for manufacturers in their area. Then post the responses. We could get a direct feel for where we actually stand with the pellet crunch. This is what Energex had to say when I questioned the shortage:

We are in the process of expanding our plant to increase production. It takes a pellet manufacturer several months to be able to increase production significantly. We had no warning of this huge spike in demand due to alternative energy costs. Unfortunately, our expansion won't be completed in time for this season, but it will for next year

Although the prices may not return to what you have been used to in the past (now that they know they can get you to pay higher costs), I think the whole shortage will eventually subside. Has Energex stated, I think both stove and pellet manufacturers were simply caught off-guard. There have been many complaints about the Harman shortage on this forum. My reasoning is because their considered one of the best and thats the brand most people are for.