New edition of Old Farmers Almanac forecast looks like a warmer to near normal for a lot of the country.
A few pockets of cold and snowy.
A few pockets of cold and snowy.
Old Farmers Almanac forecast 15-16
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Sounds like we can forget about those pockets of cold and snowy if the meteorologists are right.
On the otherhand, they bash the Almanac as a joke and no merit, but most of their forecast are wrong too!
On the otherhand, they bash the Almanac as a joke and no merit, but most of their forecast are wrong too!
Wildo
Minister of Fire
The almanac is accurate four out of five winters, versus the weather man at 1or to 2 of 5 winters. Yet they get pooped on by the main stream. I'll take those odds.
kennyp2339
Minister of Fire
I haven't looked at it but read that the FA predicts a colder winter with heavy snowfalls in the NW. This is directly opposite of NOAA's current long range forecast. With a super-strong el Nino this year I will side with the weather scientists.
FA has about 1/3 Washington and Oregon (pacific side) cold and snowy. Moving eastward, warm and dry.
![[Hearth.com] Old Farmers Almanac forecast 15-16](https://www.hearth.com/talk/data/attachments/161/161080-f5685e46da2bab18bc48b11a51122398.jpg?hash=txkzNxzqIt "[Hearth.com] Old Farmers Almanac forecast 15-16")
Hard to accept with our waters getting so warm this year. Based on past strong el Nino events that would be a wrong prediction. We shall see.
This is absolutely untrue. They claim 80% accuracy, but even when you allow for their very general predictions and allow confirmation bias, they are as good as flipping a coin.
English BoB
Minister of Fire
Iam raising the snow fence to six feet from four this winter, I have higher expectations 
Wildo
Minister of Fire
Hey I didn't get an alert that somebody replied to my post. Anyway they have been 100% accurate where I live since '09 and 83% accurate since '03. Maybe not where you live but spot on for us. NWS not even close at ~35%(60% since '09) and 2 of the last 3 years.
Reading more it sounds like the Almanac is right up there with astrology as far any objective credibility - secret algorithms and such.
A good related read here from Penn State: http://news.psu.edu/story/141165/2007/09/24/research/probing-question-farmers-almanac-accurate
A good related read here from Penn State: http://news.psu.edu/story/141165/2007/09/24/research/probing-question-farmers-almanac-accurate
Wildo
Minister of Fire
I am talking about the winter forecast not the daily/weekly.
Anything that goes against the mainstream will be shunned until proven otherwise.
Anything that goes against the mainstream will be shunned until proven otherwise.
What they say for here. My cat could tell you this.
"The coldest period will be in the middle part of January, with other cold periods in mid- and late December and early February with the snowiest periods in late December, mid- and late January, and early and mid-February."
"The coldest period will be in the middle part of January, with other cold periods in mid- and late December and early February with the snowiest periods in late December, mid- and late January, and early and mid-February."
Its easy to get it right every year when the predictions are about as specific as
"Winter will be colder than summer was"
Really- was it cold and dry last winter for you? http://www.almanac.com/content/2014–2015-winter-weather-forecast-map-us
sportbikerider78
Minister of Fire
The last 2 winters here have been very cold with record snowfalls. The odds are, it will be easier this year....hopefully. But i'm in the snow belt here.
kennyp2339
Minister of Fire
Well, my curiosity got the best of me and I spent $6.99 on one of those damn books only to find out that BrotherBarts cat could tell me the same thing.
LOL, NOAA's forecast for New England Winter 2014-2015 was for warmer than usual and almost insignificantly wetter than usual.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/winter-outlook-2014-2015
At least the Farmer's Almanac was half right.
Wildo
Minister of Fire
kennyp2339
Minister of Fire
Did you ask the cat? LOL, I'm going keep that one going for a while, but in sincerity I really did spend the 6.99 on the book and I will be comparing there forecasts to whats happening on the dates mentioned, especially if there's a big storm in region 1 & 2.
The problem is "confirmation bias". We remember the parts that they get right and say "see- they get it right". They have 2 factors they predict in a region- they will more often than not be close on one of them by flipping a coin.
I'm not saying that long term NOAA predictions are great either.
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