Rising Sea Levels

[semipro]

This is scary stuff.
I was skeptical that melting ice and groundwater pumping could raise levels enough to be a serious problem.
As it turns out though, thermal expansion of seawater is the primary cause of MSL increase. Seems to me that's a lot harder to predict and much more concerning.
Not to make light of the issue but the oceanfront property I used to covet is looking like a poor investment compared to my homestead in the mountains.

Sea level is already guaranteed to rise by 5 feet, climate scientist says

Based on the amount of greenhouse gases humans have already added to the atmosphere that have caused global temperatures to rise, the world is guaranteed to experience about 5 feet of sea level rise in the coming decades, climate scientist Benjamin Strauss told “The Climate Crisis Podcast.”

news.yahoo.com

 

[peakbagger]

Keep it mind its a double whammy on sea level rise from global warming. In areas with big tides, there is mean sea level rise to deal with and on top of that is rise in peak storm surge due to larger storms and a more energetic atmosphere. I was working on one project in Mass and although there is not yet published requirements, 25 feet above current MSL is the number to work from to avoid flooding. Mechanical and electrical gear was getting relocated to the second floor of buildings and now there is discussion to move it up to the 3rd floor.

I do get a chuckle on the various cable shows that specialize in working with buyers who want coastal waterfront. In many cases the bargains are in areas subject to periodic hurricanes on barrier islands or very shallow coast line. I think Florida is getting into one of its periodic home insurance crisis's where insurance companies are demanding big increases or they will pull out. I think the national flood insurance program is also going after high risk properties with much higher rates.

 

[SpaceBus]

It's not just the coast that will suffer, all of the river are going to flood their banks and those river valleys are where most people live. We are on the coast, but on a bedrock cliff about 150' above sea level. If nothing changes we will probably have waterfront property in 20 years.

 

[PaulOinMA]

Bought a house on OBX eight years ago. It is a short walk to the beach and X-zone on flood maps. I also have been saying we will be waterfront at the end of the century.

 

[clancey]

I be watching those volcanoes out there somewhere maybe canary island's or something and not sure but it one of them have a complete blow it might flood the whole east coast with the waves coming at you all...Check this information because I might have the volcano place wrong--check it out anyway but it could make a heck of a flood...talk about sea levels rising...old clancey

 

[ABMax24]

Those that live inland aren't necessarily immune either, increased snowpack/glacial melts in spring are causing flooding at increased frequency and severity. Water scarcity is going to be problem in many areas too, millions on this continent depend upon glacial fed rivers for their water supply, glaciers that will likely not exist (at least in their current form) in 50-100 years.

Climate based migration is typically thought of as a third world problem, the population of North America is going to experience this in the coming decades too.

 

[clancey]

I believe your right...clancey

 

[stoveliker]

I be watching those volcanoes out there somewhere maybe canary island's or something and not sure but it one of them have a complete blow it might flood the whole east coast with the waves coming at you all...Check this information because I might have the volcano place wrong--check it out anyway but it could make a heck of a flood...talk about sea levels rising...old clancey

That is indeed on the canary islands. However, this has been investigated more since it came out, and it is not likely something like this ever will happen.

Volcano Watch — The Canary Islands “mega-tsunami” hypothesis, and why it doesn’t carry water | U.S. Geological Survey

The recent eruption on La Palma, in the Canary Islands, has stimulated speculation that the volcano might collapse, creating a tsunami that would devastate the east coast of North and South America. But is such a scenario possible or likely?

www.usgs.gov

I looked into this because I'm on Long Island. Was looking how high that tsunami would be and discovered this updated understanding.

 

[begreen]

In the high northern latitudes, we get king tides that are way above normal. We are already seeing more flooding in some areas during peak king tides, even on calm days. When combined with storm winds they are already damaging areas.

 

[peakbagger]

The seaport area of Boston routinely floods during full moon high tides yet buildings still get built (albeit with critical systems on elevated floors.

 

[SpaceBus]

In the high northern latitudes, we get king tides that are way above normal. We are already seeing more flooding in some areas during peak king tides, even on calm days. When combined with storm winds they are already damaging areas.

Some of the roads in town in the tidal zone of the estuary become submerged if we have a high tide during a heavy storm. Used to be a rare occurrence, from what I've been told, now it happens every big storm. Several roads were washed out just past spring.

 

[begreen]

The real trouble waiting to happen is if the Gulf Stream thermocline shuts down.

 

[johneh]

The real trouble waiting to happen is if the Gulf Stream thermocline shuts down.

A new ICE AGE

 

[ABMax24]

A new ICE AGE

Then what, burn as much carbon as we can to try and warm the climate?

 

[semipro]

A new ICE AGE

At least for the British Isles, Norway, etc

 

[begreen]

At least for the British Isles, Norway, etc

And most of Europe. Paris is at a fairly high latitude.

 

[stoveliker]

More work for the Dutch to keep the seas out...

 

[SpaceBus]

And most of Europe. Paris is at a fairly high latitude.

I always forget the UK and most of Europe is way further north than the US and the only reason the climate is mild is the Med. I lived in Italy and the UK for five years, never really thought about how far North we were. During the winter it was dark when I got to school and dark when I got on the bus to go home.

 

[stoveliker]

Rome is about as far north as NYC and Chicago (I used "about").
It's not only the ocean currents. It's also the prevailing winds arriving over the sea rather than over land. That's why the Pacific coast also is warmer than same latitudes farther inland (past the mountains).

 

[SpaceBus]

Rome is about as far north as NYC and Chicago (I used "about").
It's not only the ocean currents. It's also the prevailing winds arriving over the sea rather than over land. That's why the Pacific coast also is warmer than same latitudes farther inland (past the mountains).

The Northern coasts of Western Europe do get pretty cold in the winter, but when I lived in Italy it was very mild. Even the Alps aren't that bad, at least the Bavarian part. It doesn't really get cold until the Artic circle, even the UK had a pretty mild winter for the three or four we spent there. I'm sure the British isles and Scandinavia will be in a bad way if the air/water currents stop or slow down. The Med doesn't really get much input from the outside, so I would think N. Africa and Southern Europe will probably fare ok.

 

[semipro]

More work for the Dutch to keep the seas out...

I heard a reference to this on the NPR program "Hidden Brain" yesterday. Among other things, they discussed how complex, extensive, and expensive the system that keeps the seas from inundating the Netherlands is - primarily dikes and large pumps. Many forget that water can back up through sewers, storm drain pipes, subway systems, etc., and make its way around surface flow control structures. New Orleans and New York City are good examples of that happening here during large storms.

 

[stoveliker]

The army corps of engineers enlisted Dutch help after Katrina.
However, if (local) sea levels rise as much there as predicted, I'm not sure it's feasible to keep fighting rather than retreating and giving water the space it needs. Salt water intrusion in the land there, and the river delta geography will make things really tough.