US exports more oil than imports

[peakbagger]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-shift-u-now-exports-more-oil-fuel-183114516--sector.html

For anyone of my age (59) we all remember the doom and gloom that the US was running out of oil and the world would soon follow. I remember waiting in gas lines in my teenage years and the summer of the embargo. I also remember Peak Oil and the dead hand of Hubberts curve (which really was misapplied by others) predicting our doom 20 years ago. I remember the media hype on running out of oil and riots in streets and various gurus preaching the masses on how to get back on the path.

I remember a keynote speech by a green power expert 10 years ago where he talked about having to stop using concrete to build as the kilns would run out fuel to convert the lime to cement. Nearby there was a community solar cooperative that was founded by an individual that was sure that society would crash and burn soon and the only solution was to form local community co-ops to survive the fuel shortages. He had a non technical background and sucked all the doom and gloom up. I was always curious if he grew out of it or emulated Harrison Ford in the Mosquito Coast.

Well most of the gurus figured out long ago that the constraints on oil were economical and political and shifted their focus to decarbonization as that is far clearer issue that has a far longer timeframe.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

Fracking changed everything. I think almost every oil well in the world will be fracked at some point to push peak oil farther ito the future. I still think its a good idea to diversify. Were now getting taxed to death on gas here in PA. Gas is $1.67 a gallon in Texas , but $2.67 in Pa.

 

[peakbagger]

Fracking actually is much more related to natural gas extraction than oil recovery. The term Fracking has been demonized as a lot of it was done with little or no regulations in place and the technique if done poorly can lead to ground water pollution. That combined with folks who unknowingly sold mineral rights for cheap or didn't own them to begin with led to a lot of bad PR. It can be done well but unless the regulations are in place and enforced there is always someone willing to cut corners. Talk to anyone who does drilling and they usually state their job is to get in and out as quick as possible and let someone else worry about the regulations.

The technique that really got oil production up is directional drilling and Enhanced Oil Recovery techniques which in the US has normally been CO2 injection. Natural Gas fracking helped refine directional drilling and the oil folks adopted it. The Canadians adopted aggressive EOR techniques for tar sands but that's a much more environmentally dirty process as the stuff coming out of the ground is tar and has to be blended with light crude from the US and other solvents to make it pumpable.

The nice part with the US is all the so called depleted fields were known. they weren't actually depleted they were just economically depleted in that the cost to extract was more than other less costly sources. Once the prices rise to a reliable level then these economically depleted fields start to become worth chasing the hard to get out stuff. The oil companies have been reinjecting natural gas into the oil fields in Alaska for years as there is no way to export the natural gas. Let the price go up to high enough level and someone will build a pipeline or far more likely a LNG plant to export it to Japan.

It all comes down to the country that has the easiest to extract oil that are willing to extract it should be in great shape but unfortunately its easy to get lazy and just charge what they can and spend lot of money paying off their population. Works good until they drive the price too high and someone else like the US figures out that its cheaper to go back out and extract oil from "depleted" fields. Saudi Arabia is stuck in this situation, they need certain price to keep their population happy and they cant get it as other non Opec countries are willing to sell it for less.

Of course pretty reliable science now projects that the world cannot afford to pump out proven reserves as the carbon impact will doom the planet.

 

[bholler]

Fracking changed everything. I think almost every oil well in the world will be fracked at some point to push peak oil farther ito the future. I still think its a good idea to diversify. Were now getting taxed to death on gas here in PA. Gas is $1.67 a gallon in Texas , but $2.67 in Pa.

Yes and it costs way more to maintain roads in our climate here in PA than it does in Texas.

 

[sportbikerider78]

Yup...fracking for NG freed up an amazing amount of energy. Now people can heat their homes with NG instead of oil and it decreases our oil consumption. Good stuff!!

Self-reliance is never a bad thing.

 

[bholler]

Yup...fracking for NG freed up an amazing amount of energy. Now people can heat their homes with NG instead of oil and it decreases our oil consumption. Good stuff!!

Self-reliance is never a bad thing.

Unfortunately there seems to be little interest in expanding residential ng supply lines in favor of large pipelines to export it. One big benefit is ng power plants are replacing coal ones. Power from ng is much cheaper and cleaner than coal.

 

[Ryan723]

One big benefit is ng power plants are replacing coal ones. Power from ng is much cheaper and cleaner than coal.

The other huge plus is that most newer NG plants are able to increase output and then shut down relatively quickly (compared to large thermal coal or oil plants), so they can be turned up and then back down to handle peak loads as needed. Which is a perfect compliment to solar and wind as more of the baseload will shift to renewables.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

The gas keeps getting cheaper but the Gas Co keeps piling on more fees and costs and taxes. At one time the cost of the gas was most of your gas bill ,but as the gas cost went down the gas company used it as an excuse to load on more "other charges" . I occasionally get a gas bill for a rental when the tenant moves out. Got a $75 gas bill for $20 worth of gas. Thats some delivery charge. Ill stick with solid fuel heat.

 

[sportbikerider78]

Unfortunately there seems to be little interest in expanding residential ng supply lines in favor of large pipelines to export it. One big benefit is ng power plants are replacing coal ones. Power from ng is much cheaper and cleaner than coal.

Likely because of its low cost, and infrastructure (burying lines) is expensive.

It isn't on my street, but it is 1 mile away in a development.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

The gas keeps getting cheaper but the Gas Co keeps piling on more fees and costs and taxes. At one time the cost of the gas was most of your gas bill ,but as the gas cost went down the gas company used it as an excuse to load on more "other charges" . I occasionally get a gas bill for a rental when the tenant moves out. Got a $75 gas bill for $20 worth of gas. Thats some delivery charge. Ill stick with solid fuel heat.

I never understood why they bill it this way. When we buy gasoline, all of the considerable taxes and fees are added into the final cost.

For the record, I don't blame the utilities for this. It reeks of the govt reaching out for more money.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

I never understood why they bill it this way. When we buy gasoline, all of the considerable taxes and fees are added into the final cost.
For the record, I don't blame the utilities for this. It reeks of the govt reaching out for more money.

I blame the gas company. Not much of that bill is govt taxes. 25% is minimum bill charge (which keeps going up) and the rest is various delivery charges. Plus whatever the Gas company can dream up to tack onto the bill. The power companies do similar things but no one is more brazen the our local gas company. Even if they got the gas for free,(and they are close) it would be expensive just for the delivery charges. Iv watched this evolve for over 30 yrs.

 

[Brian26]

I blame the gas company. Not much of that bill is govt taxes. 25% is minimum bill charge (which keeps going up) and the rest is various delivery charges. Plus whatever the Gas company can dream up to tack onto the bill. The power companies do similar things but no one is more brazen the our local gas company. Even if they got the gas for free,(and they are close) it would be expensive just for the delivery charges. Iv watched this evolve for over 30 yrs.

I have gas on my street and looked into converting. After I found out the fees are like $30+ a month just to be hooked up I said no way. I am now in the process of installing mini splits for heat which will be run essentially free with my solar panels. I think the future is going to be in heat pumps and solar and thats what I am investing in.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

I have gas on my street and looked into converting. After I found out the fees are like $30+ a month just to be hooked up I said no way..

Iv known people who for years only have a gas cooking stove. $30-$35 gas bill every month of which only $5
is for the gas.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

How much per btu? I've done calcs for both electricity and ng after all taxes and fees and electricity was 6x more expensive. We can whine all we want, but when it's the least expensive form of energy, it's the least expensive form of energy. Even when it isn't exactly cheap.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

How much per btu? I've done calcs for both electricity and ng after all taxes and fees and electricity was 6x more expensive. We can whine all we want, but when it's the least expensive form of energy, it's the least expensive form of energy. Even when it isn't exactly cheap.

Certainly not cheaper than wood or coal. Seems like they always
try to keep pace with heating oil.

 

[SpaceBus]

I have gas on my street and looked into converting. After I found out the fees are like $30+ a month just to be hooked up I said no way. I am now in the process of installing mini splits for heat which will be run essentially free with my solar panels. I think the future is going to be in heat pumps and solar and thats what I am investing in.

I am stuck with emera Maine and my delivery charges have been higher than my usage charges. Never before have I been so motivated to go off grid. It might not save us money in the long run, but we will have true independence.

 

[maple1]

I am stuck with emera Maine and my delivery charges have been higher than my usage charges. Never before have I been so motivated to go off grid. It might not save us money in the long run, but we will have true independence.

You must have very little usage?

 

[SpaceBus]

You must have very little usage?

We shall see. The first month was rough because we just moved into the house. Unbeknownst to us a single baseboard heater was running in our utility room. We used a staggering 1,700 kw/hrs, but it has gone down significantly, at least according to the energy use monitor on Emera's web portal. The bill was $300 for the first month, $170 of which was the delivery charge. The electricity itself is actually cheap, the power company just sucks.

 

[maple1]

We shall see. The first month was rough because we just moved into the house. Unbeknownst to us a single baseboard heater was running in our utility room. We used a staggering 1,700 kw/hrs, but it has gone down significantly, at least according to the energy use monitor on Emera's web portal. The bill was $300 for the first month, $170 of which was the delivery charge. The electricity itself is actually cheap, the power company just sucks.

Holy bejeebers. $170?.

We have sort of the same power company here. Owned by Emera. Likely apples & oranges. Our base charge is 10.83/mo. But, the kwh rate ($0.15) isn't broken down on the bill, on second look - I thought it was. So don't know how much of that might be delivery & how much would be power, it's lumped together as 'energy charge'.

 

[SpaceBus]

Holy bejeebers. $170?.

We have sort of the same power company here. Owned by Emera. Likely apples & oranges. Our base charge is 10.83/mo. But, the kwh rate ($0.15) isn't broken down on the bill, on second look - I thought it was. So don't know how much of that might be delivery & how much would be power, it's lumped together as 'energy charge'.

Do you have CMP? I've read they are just as bad as Emera.

 

[peakbagger]

We shall see. The first month was rough because we just moved into the house. Unbeknownst to us a single baseboard heater was running in our utility room. We used a staggering 1,700 kw/hrs, but it has gone down significantly, at least according to the energy use monitor on Emera's web portal. The bill was $300 for the first month, $170 of which was the delivery charge. The electricity itself is actually cheap, the power company just sucks.

On grid power is cheap compared to off grid. Figure $0.60 to $0.70 cents. In the Maine climate, plan on a standby generator running every few days in the winter to top up the state of charge of the batteries and new batteries every 10 years after the first batch which usually lasts around 5 years because folks don't watch their state of charge.

 

[SpaceBus]

On grid power is cheap compared to off grid. Figure $0.60 to $0.70 cents. In the Maine climate, plan on a standby generator running every few days in the winter to top up the state of charge of the batteries and new batteries every 10 years after the first batch which usually lasts around 5 years because folks don't watch their state of charge.

The majority of the plan revolves around using less power to begin with. A wood cook stove with domestic hot water option, solar water heater, and tank less water heater if needed. We don't have a dishwasher, clothes washer, or dryer. We watch very little TV and the majority of our use is keeping lights on, now that we found the source of our high power bill. Eventually I'd like to have a solar plus wind setup and we already have a generator. I know it's not going to cost less in the long run, we want to be off grid for other reasons. I have been reading a lot of posts on here about solar and the negative returns.

 

[peakbagger]

The problem is no matter what, the utility hits you with a fee for the privilege of being able to buy power and they have figured out that people are buying less power so the utilities are trying to shift costs to the base fee. Not sure what Emera has for solar net metering options but I think Maine in general dumped net metering or have diminished its value so go in with both eyes open.

 

[CaptSpiff]

.....but I think Maine in general dumped net metering or have diminished its value so go in with both eyes open.

Lots of states will head in that direction. People think Net Metering is a right, but it's just a law.

 

[woodgeek]

Sorry to spoil the oily party @peakbagger, but the original article is BS. Don't know exactly how they cooked the numbers for the headline, but the US still uses WAY more oil than it produces.

Recent US oil usage is about 19 MM barrels per day, BPD, and she been pretty steady and slowly increasing over time
https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/how-much-oil-consumed-united-states

US oil production bottomed at around 6 MM BPD in the mid 2000s, a little over ONE THIRD of usage at the time.

Production has tentatively touched 10 MM BPD, a bit over HALF of usage in the last few years. It now is above that, but still well below TWO THIRDS of demand.

Also: I am yet to meet a petroleum engineer that thinks that oil fracking can sustain the current production rate for more than 5-10 years. The best fracking sites are already exhausted.