In order to cross check my previous calculations, I'll use my original numbers. Since the US and Canadian dollar is almost at par, I wont worry about US and Canadian monopoly money. I therm is 100,000 BTU therefore it's 2.8169 times .33 or 93 cents. I ton of pellets at 8900 btu per pound is 17,800,000 btu. Therefore.......17,800,000 per ton divided by 100,000 per therm is 178. Times that by .93 is $165.00 per ton. Further..... 93 cents per therm DIVIDED by the efficiency of a gas furnace is 93 cents divided by .9 equals $1.03. In other words, I have to pay $1.03 to get ONE therm into my house. Now what is the cost in ngas taking into account the ngas efficiency? 1.03 times 178 therms equals $183.00 per ton. Now what is the pellets burners efficiency? Assuming 80% efficiency if we were to convert that into actual heat? $183 divided by .8 equals $146.40. In other words, we took $183 worth of ngas therms, shoved it into the pellet burner and got out $146 of heat. That is the break even point. ~~~~~~~~ Where the difference lays with your calculation is....you took 16,500,000 BTU per ton. Therefore......16,500,000 is 165 therms times .93 is $153.45 per ton. $153.45 divided b .9 gives for a 90% ngas burner costs me $170.50 of actual output. $170.50 multiplied by .8 for an 80% efficient pellet burner and I get $136.40 cents of heat. Not much different from your price. You took a lower value for the BTU output of your pellets therefore the ton of pellets have to be an even LOWER price them my original estimate to break even with ngas. Again, this is off the top of my head.