Who is they and do they have enough support to get it done? Again lots of people want lots of things. That doesn't make it law
Why so much hate over electric vehicles?
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Most modern packs are expected to last 12-15 years and 120-150k miles. The number of EVs on the road that were built before 2014 is quite small. Most 'used EVs' are only a few years old, coming off lease, or sold by early adopeters who want a newer car.
Currently, packs should cost about $100/kWh, or as you said, $6-8k. That price is still falling rapidly. It could be half that in a few years.
So knowing the cost and now average range and lifespan of modern batteries I decided to do a little math. I went in between the 120k-150k and chose 135k.
So with a 5k mile OCI And an average cost of $60, it would cost $1350 over 135k miles in oil changes. Now I took a low estimate of what I usually get per tank full of gas which is 430 miles and an average estimate of $60 to fill to account for fuel cost fluctuations and came up with $18,840 in fuel cost for 314 tanks of gas.
In total, for just oil changes and fuel, it costs $20,190 to get an ICE to 135k miles. Now someone with an EV would have to chime in here to get average cost to charge per whatever mileage they get per charge and then do the math with those numbers to get the cost to get an EV to 135k miles.
Then we could take the difference in cost and compare to the price for a new battery ($6-$8k) to see the true cost savings of an EV and how many times you could change the battery with that cost difference.
So with a 5k mile OCI And an average cost of $60, it would cost $1350 over 135k miles in oil changes. Now I took a low estimate of what I usually get per tank full of gas which is 430 miles and an average estimate of $60 to fill to account for fuel cost fluctuations and came up with $18,840 in fuel cost for 314 tanks of gas.
In total, for just oil changes and fuel, it costs $20,190 to get an ICE to 135k miles. Now someone with an EV would have to chime in here to get average cost to charge per whatever mileage they get per charge and then do the math with those numbers to get the cost to get an EV to 135k miles.
Then we could take the difference in cost and compare to the price for a new battery ($6-$8k) to see the true cost savings of an EV and how many times you could change the battery with that cost difference.
So I just did the math based off of what it costs me per KwH and took the average cost of the battery replacement given by woodgeek ($7k or $100/KwH) to give me 70 KwH on said battery. With my KwH charge from the electric company charging at home would cost me $8.75. I gave the battery a 280 mile range, and came up with 483 charges rounded up per 135k miles. Charged solely at home, it would cost $4,226 in electric costs to get to 135k in an EV. A cost savings of $15,964.
what are maintenance procedures on an ev.i have no idea myself,i would assume there must be yearly tune up stuff.
so with quebec having some of the lowest hydro rates,could have some good savings
hhhmmmm
but might be negated by wives usage .one car i work nights she works day.no charging for the week or very little might be a problem
hhhmmmm
but might be negated by wives usage .one car i work nights she works day.no charging for the week or very little might be a problem
To replace the battery it is about 16,000 dollars plus "numerous other problems" that I can't discuss on this particular forum...old clancey
In what vehicle??? What battery option for that vehicle? Does the whole pack need done or just part of it? If it's the whole pack some are less some are allot more. But they are getting much cheaper and easier to work on
You can discuss anything here as long as it's not guns politics or a personal attack.
Very little honestly. You still have brakes suspension steering tires etc that need checked. But the driveline itself there really isn't anything
I'd say double the tire cost due to the torque, for me its close to 3 cents per mile, So add an additional $2k for that (doubling the ICE value).
On EVs, they like to flush the brake lines (bc they get too little use to ever heat up) every 10 or 20 k miles, and they replace the cooling fluid around the motor at 50k and 100k miles (its identical to transmission fluid). None of this is super expensive.
I made my living working on vehicles for decades, saw a lot of changes. People didn't like the change at first like electronic ignition, computer controls and fuel injection. I don't own an EV and might never own or even work on one but I am learning a little about them every day. The battery that is a big concern is covered by the warranty of 8 years or 100k mi. Even if the battery needs some type of service on some cells are individually replaceable. I'd say that the used and or reconditioned battery business will also come into play for keeping costs down. For any vehicle today repair is expensive. Engine or transmission replacement is extremely expensive on any modern vehicle and the days of a local shop that rebuilds are about gone. Look into the common failures on diesel trucks and see what repairs cost, just injector replacement is in the thousands.
Honestly, there is so little market for battery pack replacements... its hard to find a true market value. Most EVs are still on their first packs. But the OEM price for the new packs is under $10k at this point, so replacements shouldn't be much more.
My current Bolt has a replacement pack, bc the earlier one was the fire risk recall. It was a stop sale parked at the dealer for close to 12 mos before the new pack got delivered. In a 1000lb crate. The changeout takes a few hours I think.
Tesla is in the process of using the battery pack as a "stressed member", that means that they want it structurally rigid and that mean sealing it for good as far they are concerned. No doubt entrepreneurs will figure out a way of repairing then by creating ways of cutting the cases open. One of the Hearth.com members, Tom in Maine has a business selling mostly used EVs that uses the Nickel Metal Hydride batteries used prior to Lithium. He and his partner figures out what breaks on them and has fixes including opening up battery packs and replacing specific cells that usually tend to fail the fastest. Mileage doesnt seem to be the limiting factor on these cars, its the same things that take out ICE vehicles in Maine, body rust and occasional mice incursions.
With respect to used batteries, they are still good for stationary storage https://www.autoweek.com/news/techn...using-ev-battery-packs-to-store-solar-energy/
The reality is that there are so few used EV batteries out there, the economics just do not yet justify large scale breaking the batteries back into the various components. Plenty of people have figured out how, but until there is big reliable supply chain. Lot of hobbyists are buying old EV batteries and turning them into home batteries.
Lead Acid batteries used to be an environmental issue, folks discarded them wherever it was easy. Battery sellers were required to take back batteries and send them to recycling and now a fairly closed loop. Same will happen with EV batteries.
With respect to used batteries, they are still good for stationary storage https://www.autoweek.com/news/techn...using-ev-battery-packs-to-store-solar-energy/
The reality is that there are so few used EV batteries out there, the economics just do not yet justify large scale breaking the batteries back into the various components. Plenty of people have figured out how, but until there is big reliable supply chain. Lot of hobbyists are buying old EV batteries and turning them into home batteries.
Lead Acid batteries used to be an environmental issue, folks discarded them wherever it was easy. Battery sellers were required to take back batteries and send them to recycling and now a fairly closed loop. Same will happen with EV batteries.
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Interesting on tire wear, things that are unique to EV's
As far as fluid changes no matter what the vehicle runs on there are fluid change intervals but most never get done aside from the engine oil. It will be interesting to see how used and abused EV's hold up to the general neglect of most people's vehicles.
You have to rotate and replace tires (replacement happens a little more often with an EV, depending on the vehicle) and tires are about a 25% premium (low-rolling resistance, sometimes odd sizes so less choice) - there is a slight advantage to an ICE there. Otherwise, replace wiper blades, add wiper fluid, change cabin air filter, and that's basically it. Since I bought my Bolt, GM has invented a power electronics coolant system flush (not sure this is really necessary) that should supposedly be done at 150,000 miles.
Is this an east coast thing? Our car's maintenance interval for brake fluid is every 5 years. Also, the battery and cabin heating and cooling fluids should be changed at this interval. FWIW, our tire wear has been quite good with both our previous and current Volts.
The somewhat unusual service that I see on east coast EVs in particular is the rusting up of the rear brakes, especially on cars with good regen. It's a good idea to do a high speed or steep downhill hard braking ever month or two to exercise the rear brakes.
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My Bolt averages about 4 miles/kWh year round. When I bought the Bolt 5 years ago, I calculated an 80,000 mile break even point (that's just what I remember) based on reduced fuel cost and reduced maintainence.
Just doing the math again, electricity in Central NY is about 12 cents/kWh (I have solar PV, but that is what I would pay if I didn't). I replaced a car that got 40 mpg. If I drove 80,000 miles with each and gas at $3.50/gallon (conservative - probably less than the average over the last 5 years), then the electricity is $2400 and the gas is $7000 during the first 80,000 miles. Oil changes (synthetic oil, every 5000 miles) would run about another $1200.
In regards to battery life, I think that 135,000 miles is a ridiculously low lifetime estimate UNLESS you bought a Nissan Leaf (it had a terrible battery management system and notoriously bad battery life). Batteries aren't failing at 135,000 miles, but they might have reduced capacity (but not ridiculously reduced). IF you don't DC fast charge much (i.e., you charge at home at 6 kWh rate or less, which is what most people would do) and/or your car has a conservative DC fast charging battery management system (e.g., the Chevy Bolt), it seems like 200,000 miles with a 10% loss of capacity is pretty realistic. I've read that Tesla EVs (which DC fast charge far more aggressively) have about 10% loss of capacity at 100,000 miles. Frankly, after 200,000 miles I'm probably getting a new car (for other reasons that have nothing to do with the battery). I've driven cars longer than 200,000 miles and the maintenance starts to become expensive and/or I just want something new by that point.
Over a 200,000 BEV lifetime, my total fuel savings comes to $11,500. During that time, I also have a far better driving experience (quieter ride, better acceleration) than the car it replaced. Over a 5 year vehicle life, fleet owners have reported something in the range of a $1000/year less in maintenance, so I'll estimate is probably mostly maintained from 100,000 to 200,000 miles and that amounts to an $8,000 to $10,000 savings in maintenance over the life of the vehicle as well.
Sure, there are anecdotes and corner cases with people having battery issues far earlier than what I am describing, but there are also ICE vehicles with engine/transmission problems at less than 100,000 miles. But in general, we could probably all agree that a well-maintained engine should last 200,000 miles (as long at is not towing heavy loads or outright abused) and the automatic transmission should last in the range of 150,000 to 200,000 miles. I have had to replace manifold head gaskets in the 100,000 to 150,000 mile range, as well as catalytic converters, mufflers, exhaust systems, etc. I wouldn't expect to have to buy a new electric motor/battery or engine/transmission during the 200,000 mile life of any vehicle I purchased (based on my experience and the experiences of those I know).
woodgeek said:
I'd say double the tire cost due to the torque, for me its close to 3 cents per mile, So add an additional $2k for that (doubling the ICE value).
On EVs, they like to flush the brake lines (bc they get too little use to ever heat up) every 10 or 20 k miles, and they replace the cooling fluid around the motor at 50k and 100k miles (its identical to transmission fluid). None of this is super expensive.
I'd estimate 50% more for tires with a BEV, for a bunch of reasons. I don't accelerate particularly aggressively, so maybe that is the difference between my estimate and Woodgeek's estimate on tire cost/life.
GM tried to talk me into replacing all of the cooling fluids - I'm just going to wait on that one for a bit. This is a newly introduced recommendation and hardly seems required at the interval they are suggesting, so it seems like they are just trying to drum up recurring revenue service business for their dealers. Likewise for brakes - I drove my Chevy Sonic for 150,000 miles with original brake pads and calipers (mostly highway, and manual transmission and I drove gently). I never changed fluid on that car's brake lines and I don't see why I would need to on my Bolt either. Again, it seems GM is just trying to drum up service business.
I'd say double the tire cost due to the torque, for me its close to 3 cents per mile, So add an additional $2k for that (doubling the ICE value).
On EVs, they like to flush the brake lines (bc they get too little use to ever heat up) every 10 or 20 k miles, and they replace the cooling fluid around the motor at 50k and 100k miles (its identical to transmission fluid). None of this is super expensive.
I'd estimate 50% more for tires with a BEV, for a bunch of reasons. I don't accelerate particularly aggressively, so maybe that is the difference between my estimate and Woodgeek's estimate on tire cost/life.
GM tried to talk me into replacing all of the cooling fluids - I'm just going to wait on that one for a bit. This is a newly introduced recommendation and hardly seems required at the interval they are suggesting, so it seems like they are just trying to drum up recurring revenue service business for their dealers. Likewise for brakes - I drove my Chevy Sonic for 150,000 miles with original brake pads and calipers (mostly highway, and manual transmission and I drove gently). I never changed fluid on that car's brake lines and I don't see why I would need to on my Bolt either. Again, it seems GM is just trying to drum up service business.
Agree 100%. Until the prices on EVs come down to purchase prices below ICE vehicles, we will not have mass adoption. Period. But every engineering firm and economic model says that that is inevitable. Just like falling prices of solar PV, HD TVs, LED bulbs, what have you.
The legacy car makers don't WANT to transition to EVs. They would be super happy to sell the same (style refreshed) products until the end of time. But they believe the analysts that say that eventually new EVs will be so cheap compared to new comparable ICE vehicles, that their ICE business model is simply doomed.
The legacy makers are not transitioning because of govt CAFE regs, or a threat of a ICE ban in 2035 in a couple states. They are transitioning because sales of ICE vehicles (globally) have been falling since 2018, other major markets (China and EU) are already close to 50% EV market share, and they are looking at bankruptcy in a few years if they don't switch ASAP.
If you ask why EVs are still so expensive? That is due to the legacy makers doing a bad job of transitioning. They are selling products that are over-engineered, hard to mass produce, with parts coming from too expensive (badly negotiated) contracts. And then producing small volumes. And HOPING that rich early adopter types will grab them at sky high prices, because they seem to pay a premium for Teslas.
But Tesla simply dropped their prices a little (while still making a good profit per vehicle), enough that no one in their right mind would buy what Ford and GM are selling at their current asking prices and dealer markups. And so those makers are whining 'No one wants to buy EVs'. And they are holding their prices high, rather than clearing inventory. Probably bc the dealers would have to take the big loss.
In the US, you are not seeing a failure of EV adoption (which is still growing rapidly), you are seeing a failure of Ford and GM to build market viable EV products. Tesla, VW and Kia do not have huge inventory on their lots, they are selling.
In the US, prices of new EVs are still falling as predicted (Tesla, VW and Korean brands), and you see Ford and GM and their dealers holding their prices high and selling little to no vehicles.
Of course, even as EVs take over the new vehicle market, the transition will hit sedans first, SUVs second and trucks last. Ford starting with a truck EV offering was a huge gamble, which they appear to have lost. The pack is too small to enable high capacity towing, and too big to sell the thing at a market supportable price. Note that Tesla did NOT sell a truck, and only launched the Cybertruck this month, and at an eye-watering price (which Tesla needs to clear a profit, with their waaay lower than Ford costs). GM is selling an EV truck, but so far only fleet customers who might make the economics work.
As you say, the used market will be v interesting. You can shop for a 15-20 year old used ICE car, and have it looked over by a trusted mechanic, and look for collision reports, and feel good about the purchase. While I think many EV batteries will last 15 years, and the new LFPs might last even longer, we just don't know yet. But by the time EV mass adoption gets underway, new packs will be affordable. Currently, most pack replacements are warranty claims. And as said upthread, a whole ecosystem of cheap cell replacements and selling of good condition used packs (from totaled cars) will grow up over time. But the used market for EVs will lag the new market for EVs by several years, of course. But people will buy used EVs rather than used ICE only when the price is lower.
This is what all the EV projections posted in the Green Room assume.... mass customer adoption driven simply by lower prices for EVs. And Ford and GM might not be part of that, unless they get their butts in gear. Their current offerings are not market viable against Tesla and VW and Kia.
So the transition will be uneven in every possible way, as these transitions always are. The cost factor will slow adoption in some markets/regions/group of customers/products, relative to others. Logically, trucks in the deep south or far north will be the dead last to transition to EVs, but when they do (well after 2030), my guess is that those buyers will be getting new EV trucks bc they are cheaper/better than their ICE competition, and not because of any govt 'ICE ban'.
The incandescent light bulb 'ban' was delayed several times for many years, because the new bulbs sucked (CFLs) or were too expensive (LEDs). Only after the transition was over did the ban finally go into effect. Forcing folks to buy inferior products by govt fiat is so toxic a concept politically, that it will never happen.
OK, the answer the OP question... why all the hate?
There is an EV transition under way. There is lots of data out there... EV sales curves growing upward steeply, crazy stats from overseas markets, maybe you see rich folks driving around in crazy expensive EVs. I and others post that data and our experiences in the Green Room, crowing 'Look, its happening'.
What one thinks of this can be divided into two groups.
Group 1 assumes that this transition will be driven by lower prices and capitalism, and buyer choice. That no one will be forced to buy an inferior EV that they don't want rather than an ICE vehicle, ever. In other words, it will happen when EV products are available at competitive prices with ICE, and customers make a judgement call about their use cases and total cost of ownership. Govt incentives might be part of that calculation, but not a big part. Its just a case of tech progress like the old TVs getting replaced with HD TVs, where we can now get $300 giant UHD TVs at Walmart... that's what I have.
Group 1 is happy bc they are excited about progress and getting a better product in the future at a lower price.
Group 2 assumes that the transition is being forced on the population in some way by the government or the legacy makers or other actors, in some way. With respect, I don't understand what the motivation for this would be, so I won't try to elaborate. The result will be that the price of new (and eventually used) vehicles will get much higher, perhaps becoming unaffordable for many. And the new vehicles will suck compared to the ICE vehicles they replaced... in terms of range, cold weather performance, towing capacity, fire risk, etc. But you will have to pay more for these awful vehicles anyway.
Group 2 is unhappy bc they are worried that they will have to buy more expensive inferior products in the future.
So every time I post new EV adoption stats going up up up, I am certainly making Group 2 lurkers more upset. Sorry, that is never my intent. The same stuff I post also talks about the EVs getting cheaper and better... I am also happy to point out when some new EV offering absolutely sucks and no one should buy it. Especially Toyotas and Chevys.
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I'm in Group 1 because (I believe) that is where the scientists and engineers and economists are... EVs will get super cheap just like UHD TVs. And part of batteries getting cheap, is that EV trucks can get the super large packs they would need to not suck and still be affordable. There are literally hundreds of independent analyses that all find the same thing. You can take the historical data in battery prices, plot it in excel yourself and see it is a falling exponential curve that has dropped 90% in the last 12 years. And realize that if it drops to 95% then EVs are way cheaper than ICE cars in most cases. And that will happen in the next couple years. Boom.
How low can battery prices go? Limited by the cost of materials. If you look at the historic prices for these minerals (rather than the inflated prices during recent high demand), then battery prices have a lot farther to fall before they bottom out.
What else stands in the way? People who can't install chargers at their home or apt? The crappy (non-Tesla) fast charging network in the US? Crappy cold weather range in current EVs? Yes, those issues are already and will continue to slow EV adoption, but they will get worked out over many years.
Taking these factors into account with fancier models, analysts think adoption of new EVs in the US will only reach 50% in like 2028 or 2029, despite China getting there in 2023 and the EU getting there in the next year or two. No big deal. That 50% means way more than 50% in some US regions, and way less in others. As a group 1 person this doesn't bother me at all. Folks is slow adopter regions are just exercising their freedom of choice, and not buying vehicles that won't work well for them. Free country.
Group 2 folks are getting cranked about bans, and with good reason. I would be p%ssed if I had to buy some overpriced POS vehicle with my hard earned money. Especially of it was going to strand my kids on the side of the road in a blizzard, or burn my house down. Yikes.
But I don't think the bans will do anything. It would be like banning non-HD TVs in 2020. Or incandescent bulbs when the ban finally went into effect 15 years late.
So sure Group 2 folks should feel free to call their local pols and tell them that they don't want a ban. Let them know what you think! And then the ban won't happen. And that is fine with me.
There is an EV transition under way. There is lots of data out there... EV sales curves growing upward steeply, crazy stats from overseas markets, maybe you see rich folks driving around in crazy expensive EVs. I and others post that data and our experiences in the Green Room, crowing 'Look, its happening'.
What one thinks of this can be divided into two groups.
Group 1 assumes that this transition will be driven by lower prices and capitalism, and buyer choice. That no one will be forced to buy an inferior EV that they don't want rather than an ICE vehicle, ever. In other words, it will happen when EV products are available at competitive prices with ICE, and customers make a judgement call about their use cases and total cost of ownership. Govt incentives might be part of that calculation, but not a big part. Its just a case of tech progress like the old TVs getting replaced with HD TVs, where we can now get $300 giant UHD TVs at Walmart... that's what I have.
Group 1 is happy bc they are excited about progress and getting a better product in the future at a lower price.
Group 2 assumes that the transition is being forced on the population in some way by the government or the legacy makers or other actors, in some way. With respect, I don't understand what the motivation for this would be, so I won't try to elaborate. The result will be that the price of new (and eventually used) vehicles will get much higher, perhaps becoming unaffordable for many. And the new vehicles will suck compared to the ICE vehicles they replaced... in terms of range, cold weather performance, towing capacity, fire risk, etc. But you will have to pay more for these awful vehicles anyway.
Group 2 is unhappy bc they are worried that they will have to buy more expensive inferior products in the future.
So every time I post new EV adoption stats going up up up, I am certainly making Group 2 lurkers more upset. Sorry, that is never my intent. The same stuff I post also talks about the EVs getting cheaper and better... I am also happy to point out when some new EV offering absolutely sucks and no one should buy it. Especially Toyotas and Chevys.
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I'm in Group 1 because (I believe) that is where the scientists and engineers and economists are... EVs will get super cheap just like UHD TVs. And part of batteries getting cheap, is that EV trucks can get the super large packs they would need to not suck and still be affordable. There are literally hundreds of independent analyses that all find the same thing. You can take the historical data in battery prices, plot it in excel yourself and see it is a falling exponential curve that has dropped 90% in the last 12 years. And realize that if it drops to 95% then EVs are way cheaper than ICE cars in most cases. And that will happen in the next couple years. Boom.
How low can battery prices go? Limited by the cost of materials. If you look at the historic prices for these minerals (rather than the inflated prices during recent high demand), then battery prices have a lot farther to fall before they bottom out.
What else stands in the way? People who can't install chargers at their home or apt? The crappy (non-Tesla) fast charging network in the US? Crappy cold weather range in current EVs? Yes, those issues are already and will continue to slow EV adoption, but they will get worked out over many years.
Taking these factors into account with fancier models, analysts think adoption of new EVs in the US will only reach 50% in like 2028 or 2029, despite China getting there in 2023 and the EU getting there in the next year or two. No big deal. That 50% means way more than 50% in some US regions, and way less in others. As a group 1 person this doesn't bother me at all. Folks is slow adopter regions are just exercising their freedom of choice, and not buying vehicles that won't work well for them. Free country.
Group 2 folks are getting cranked about bans, and with good reason. I would be p%ssed if I had to buy some overpriced POS vehicle with my hard earned money. Especially of it was going to strand my kids on the side of the road in a blizzard, or burn my house down. Yikes.
But I don't think the bans will do anything. It would be like banning non-HD TVs in 2020. Or incandescent bulbs when the ban finally went into effect 15 years late.
So sure Group 2 folks should feel free to call their local pols and tell them that they don't want a ban. Let them know what you think! And then the ban won't happen. And that is fine with me.
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sloeffle
Minister of Fire
@DBoon great cost breakdown. Since electric vehicles are generally more expensive to buy. Do you think that the overall cost ( TCO ) to buy and operate the electric vehicle to 200k miles will be cheaper than an ICE ? With the assumption that there are no major break downs on either vehicle, just routine maintenance and operating costs.
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Like Deja Vu all over again. The legacy carmakers kept beating the dead horse back in the early 70's putting band aids on carbureted V8's wanting the gov't to block out imports and not impose CAFE regulations. Now the import EV's will take over the market and the legacy makers will want help.
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