2018 emissions surged

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I like everything you said, but tell me more about how we are all going to produce our own power.

I can provide my own heat, but I have access to a real expensive woodlot and have neighbors who are generous with their "waste" wood. Plus, I am able physically, and just motivated enough to do the work required.

Can't do solar, wind, hydro, or geothermal here, and many can't either. Only perhaps cogeneration from the natural gas, and that's just another grid.

You are right, we can't all do it ourselves, but I do believe that we should be encouraging it as national policy as much as possible. It's my belief that if we were to take that attitude as a nation, it would greatly increase the incentives for more R&D in each of these areas, as well as storage, and who knows what new concepts will arise as a result?

They have already made some pretty impressive advances, and that's with mostly only encouraging those who can already afford it (a pretty small portion of our population) to switch with tax credits, etc. But if we were to remove that upfront hurdle for those who live in appropriate locations and want to make the switch, I believe the market would show that far more people are interested in doing so than is currently expected.

I don't think we're likely to do away with the grid itself with each of us providing our own power any time soon, but breaking it up into smaller chunks so that vast areas aren't down at once is still a pretty major benefit in my mind.
 
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You are right, we can't all do it ourselves, but I do believe that we should be encouraging it as national policy as much as possible. It's my belief that if we were to take that attitude as a nation, it would greatly increase the incentives for more R&D in each of these areas, as well as storage, and who knows what new concepts will arise as a result?

They have already made some pretty impressive advances, and that's with mostly only encouraging those who can already afford it (a pretty small portion of our population) to switch with tax credits, etc. But if we were to remove that upfront hurdle for those who live in appropriate locations and want to make the switch, I believe the market would show that far more people are interested in doing so than is currently expected.

I don't think we're likely to do away with the grid itself with each of us providing our own power any time soon, but breaking it up into smaller chunks so that vast areas aren't down at once is still a pretty major benefit in my mind.
Right on.

You are not alone, I think I read that CA is requiring solar panels to be installed on all new construction.

I think the last hurdle on this idea is storage. Still too expensive. That $5b being thrown around for the wall of hate and fear would go a long way towards getting us started. I believe we are on an unstoppable trajectory towards this.

Utilty executives are not happy these days, and expect lots of battles from people protecting their own self interests in that industry.
 
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Right on.

You are not alone, I think I read that CA is requiring solar panels to be installed on all new construction.

I think the last hurdle on this idea is storage. Still too expensive. That $5b being thrown around for the wall of hate and fear would go a long way towards getting us started. I believe we are on an unstoppable trajectory towards this.

Utilty executives are not happy these days, and expect lots of battles from people protecting their own self interests in that industry.

One thing that always bugs me is that, for the most part, both mainstream parties push for solutions that either protect the status quo, or push the investment dollars directly to some corporation. The Solyndra money that a lot of people like to bring up as an example of "failed" green energy investments is one example.

Imagine where we'd be if that had been used to fund homeowners moving to clean energy instead. At least we'd have something to show for it, lol. And if it kept being re-invested as the money was paid back, we could have already switched a lot of people over.

And as more people start switching, it would lead to more efficient electronics we all use as those companies begin competing for our business, since we'd be actively looking for more efficient products in order to keep our costs down.

I look at this as being part of the circular economy mentioned in another topic here, and even more importantly, as a way to move to a more affordable future where jobs become scarce as a result of AI and automation while providing jobs helping to make that transition in the meantime.
 
One thing that always bugs me is that, for the most part, both mainstream parties push for solutions that either protect the status quo, or push the investment dollars directly to some corporation. The Solyndra money that a lot of people like to bring up as an example of "failed" green energy investments is one example.

Imagine where we'd be if that had been used to fund homeowners moving to clean energy instead. At least we'd have something to show for it, lol. And if it kept being re-invested as the money was paid back, we could have already switched a lot of people over.

And as more people start switching, it would lead to more efficient electronics we all use as those companies begin competing for our business, since we'd be actively looking for more efficient products in order to keep our costs down.

I look at this as being part of the circular economy mentioned in another topic here, and even more importantly, as a way to move to a more affordable future where jobs become scarce as a result of AI and automation while providing jobs helping to make that transition in the meantime.
Yep, like that $300 tax credit on the new stove a few years back!
 
While I don't disagree with the idea that wait and see is a bad idea, the problem with "the science is settled" being the argument is that, as is clearly shown, there isn't enough backing by citizens or politicians to actually do anything meaningful.
I would agree that while the science is settled, the public doesn't have the same level of agreement, but the amount of public agreement is also rapidly changing. It might be that this political administration was what was really needed to move things faster at the state and local levels, where most of the action happens anyways.

And meaningful things are happening. 10 years ago, solar was just a blip of generation and nobody could make a claim that it was cheaper. Now it is 2% (or more) of generation (more if you count behind the meter). Wind is approaching 10% of generation pretty quickly (~7% now, 10% in two more years or so). Both these technologies are cheaper than conventional fossil fuel generation, and are starting to be bundled with storage and priced the same as fossil fuel electricity. The arguments that "it is too expensive" or "it can't scale" are going away quickly.

No amount of false or misleading statements from politicians will work when everywhere people look there are solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. At some point, even the naysayers will have to agree that there can't be that many rich idiots throwing away that much money on so many things that just don't work at all. Especially when those same naysayers are in states where utilities are screwing them (in the future) with 15 to 20 cent/kWh electricity from big new fossil fuel plants or nukes that ran over budget. Wisconsin's residential kWh rates are nearly 15 cents/kWh - that seems pretty crazy for a state that relies on "cheap coal" for a huge amount of production. In South Carolina, the rate is 12.5 cents/kWh. Both of these are more than the 11 cents/kWh I pay in Central NY. I don't hear people in Iowa complaining about getting 35% of their electricity from wind turbines, and the electricity must be pretty reliable or I'm sure I'd be hearing about it from some news sources. Why do the people of Wisconsin tolerate such high prices for such polluting, antiquated technologies? They may now, but they won't in the future, I am sure.

The growth rate of wind and solar is 15% or more (has hit 30% in some years). If wind and solar are a combined 10% now, and they grow at 15% a year for 5 years, then in 5 years they will double to 20% of generation. It may sound crazy now, but don't be shocked in 2024 to have wind and solar be 20% of net electricity generation, and we don't need a storage miracle to get to 20% either.

When I installed a 5kW solar PV array for a renovated home in a rural area, I had a lot of people ask me "does that really work?" They were surprised when I told them what it cost, what it produced, and how I used it to power a mini split to heat the house during renovation. Their news sources had led them to believe otherwise. Exposure leads to understanding leads to more adoption.

My new Bolt EV costs more to purchase but has 1/3 the fuel costs and will be powered mostly by overnight nukes and wind when the L2 charger is installed. The running costs are probably 1/3 that of a gas engine car as well. And the range is pretty great for doing just about everything I need to do (and I am a road tripper). I've already explained to about 20 people at work what this thing can do and most of them are surprised by it's range and capabilities, even though it has been around for 3 or 4 years now. Information takes time to spread.

I don't plan on any politician showing any leadership on this, so I am personally leading by adopting and publicizing.

Other advantages? The last two summers I have seen 4 or 5 of the most clear sky 50+ mile visibility days in Central NY, and I've never seen this before. Can that be due to burning half the coal we used to burn and not have the pollution and particulates from that end up in the air in NY state? Yeah, maybe it does. I'll take that benefit as well.
 
I would agree that while the science is settled, the public doesn't have the same level of agreement, but the amount of public agreement is also rapidly changing. It might be that this political administration was what was really needed to move things faster at the state and local levels, where most of the action happens anyways.

And meaningful things are happening. 10 years ago, solar was just a blip of generation and nobody could make a claim that it was cheaper. Now it is 2% (or more) of generation (more if you count behind the meter). Wind is approaching 10% of generation pretty quickly (~7% now, 10% in two more years or so). Both these technologies are cheaper than conventional fossil fuel generation, and are starting to be bundled with storage and priced the same as fossil fuel electricity. The arguments that "it is too expensive" or "it can't scale" are going away quickly.

No amount of false or misleading statements from politicians will work when everywhere people look there are solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. At some point, even the naysayers will have to agree that there can't be that many rich idiots throwing away that much money on so many things that just don't work at all. Especially when those same naysayers are in states where utilities are screwing them (in the future) with 15 to 20 cent/kWh electricity from big new fossil fuel plants or nukes that ran over budget. Wisconsin's residential kWh rates are nearly 15 cents/kWh - that seems pretty crazy for a state that relies on "cheap coal" for a huge amount of production. In South Carolina, the rate is 12.5 cents/kWh. Both of these are more than the 11 cents/kWh I pay in Central NY. I don't hear people in Iowa complaining about getting 35% of their electricity from wind turbines, and the electricity must be pretty reliable or I'm sure I'd be hearing about it from some news sources. Why do the people of Wisconsin tolerate such high prices for such polluting, antiquated technologies? They may now, but they won't in the future, I am sure.

The growth rate of wind and solar is 15% or more (has hit 30% in some years). If wind and solar are a combined 10% now, and they grow at 15% a year for 5 years, then in 5 years they will double to 20% of generation. It may sound crazy now, but don't be shocked in 2024 to have wind and solar be 20% of net electricity generation, and we don't need a storage miracle to get to 20% either.

When I installed a 5kW solar PV array for a renovated home in a rural area, I had a lot of people ask me "does that really work?" They were surprised when I told them what it cost, what it produced, and how I used it to power a mini split to heat the house during renovation. Their news sources had led them to believe otherwise. Exposure leads to understanding leads to more adoption.

My new Bolt EV costs more to purchase but has 1/3 the fuel costs and will be powered mostly by overnight nukes and wind when the L2 charger is installed. The running costs are probably 1/3 that of a gas engine car as well. And the range is pretty great for doing just about everything I need to do (and I am a road tripper). I've already explained to about 20 people at work what this thing can do and most of them are surprised by it's range and capabilities, even though it has been around for 3 or 4 years now. Information takes time to spread.

I don't plan on any politician showing any leadership on this, so I am personally leading by adopting and publicizing.

Other advantages? The last two summers I have seen 4 or 5 of the most clear sky 50+ mile visibility days in Central NY, and I've never seen this before. Can that be due to burning half the coal we used to burn and not have the pollution and particulates from that end up in the air in NY state? Yeah, maybe it does. I'll take that benefit as well.
Terrific post, DBoon. Really enjoyed it.
 
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I would agree that while the science is settled, the public doesn't have the same level of agreement, but the amount of public agreement is also rapidly changing. It might be that this political administration was what was really needed to move things faster at the state and local levels, where most of the action happens anyways.

And meaningful things are happening.
I pretty much agree with everything you said. My comment regarding anything meaningful happening is mostly meant for people who not only believe that the science is settled, but that we have to take massive action now because it was already too late last year (or similar).

If someone is that concerned about actual climate change, then continuing with the simple argument that the science is settled, isn't going to be anywhere nearly sufficient to get things done in a timely manner so they'd better start focusing on areas more of us agree so we can get started.
 
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.... Both of these are more than the 11 cents/kWh I pay in Central NY.

Hi DBoon, can you break out the Energy portion, and the T&D portion. and also the monthly meter charge?

I payed combined almost 25 cents/kwh on LI, NY.

The Nov&Dec period I used 417kwh and paid $106.45.
Broken out, that is for 59 days:
1. Basic Connection (meter) charge= $ 21.40_______fixed by days
2. transmission & Distribution charge= $ 29.86____7.16 cents/kwh
3. Cost of the Energy charge= $ 42.35_____________10.15 cents/kwh
4. Taxes & other charges= $ 12.84_________________ 3.07 cents/kwh

My Utility likes to say I pay only 17.3 cents/kwh on the T&D + Energy, so it's hard to do an Apple to Apple.
 
last I calculated it, it was something like $.25 each for me too. My usage has crept up, so the $17+ generic priviledge to be associated with National Grid fee that I get is spread out a bit further. It really penalizes energy conservation.
 
I guess I'll be the outlier in this thread.

Let's start with a question....what would an actual solution or solutions to climate change look like?

New technology doesn't just spring up overnight. You wake up one day, and the POTUS is announcing some govt Manhattan mega project or some white-haired inventor announces that he can make energy from seawater....NOPE.

Others will tell you that solutions are IMPOSSIBLE, because they can never be FAST enough. Our energy grid took many decades to build, same for housing and building stock, car technology is mature and can't be improved. That we need to change NOW and there are no solutions that can be that fast. This thinking is also wrong.

Solutions to climate change will require that they provide the services that people need/demand, and that they be CHEAPER and BETTER than current, fossil-fueled tech. And even when that tech exists, it will have some maximum growth rate and learning curve, which according to myriad tech examples in history corresponds to an exponential growth rate that doubles at the fastest, every 18 months or so, and the slowest, about 4-5 years just to double. Things like the iPhone, Color TV and LED light bulbs....fast. Washing Machines and telephones....slow.

So I claim that in fact all (or nearly all) the solutions we need to significantly reduce emissions (>60%) already EXIST, are ready for prime time, are in fact already in the field and growing exponentially (at a fast rate), and are doing so (with a few inevitable exceptions) around the world.

That is, multiple major industries around the world are being disrupted...electricity production and automobiles being the biggest and most important.

The original report linked by BG points out that total emissions from the US power sector have been falling for years, while the economy has been growing, and (light) manufacturing has been rebounding. This is bc new technology has reduced electricity demand in the US relative to the services it provide. A lot of that is LED lighting in residential and commercial spaces. So demand has been flat during a growth phase in the US economy. And the rise of (cheap) natgas, wind and solar has displaced coal generation. Net result....US electricity sector emissions have fallen for several years...and real prices have been flat.

Note that this happened almost invisibly. YOU did not have to put solar panel on your roof, batteries in your basement or mortgage your house to build a giant wind turbine in your backyard. Instead, your utility (or the one a town over) built some solar or wind farms, when their bean counters told them it made sense to do that financially (instead of building a new coal plant) or, some entrepreneur built that stuff and your utility agreed to buy power from them at a market rate. Invisible to you.

Your part so far...you saw LED bulbs in Home Despot for like $2, spent 30 seconds thinking about it (and deciding that was free money right there), you bought a bunch, and spend 20 minutes putting them all over your house. And then you forgot about it. Done.

And you do a lot of internet on your smartphone now, instead of a 2000-vintage desktop with a CRT.
And you watch an LED backlit HD flatpanel, that uses much less juice than your old Sony Trinitron behemoth.
(And partial thanks to, ahem, Al Gore's Energy Star program)

Add it all up, and US electricity sector emissions have (probably) peaked, like several years ago already. Because even if electricity demand grows this year, or over the next ten years, renewables and natgas are taking over fast now.

The OP report says that total US emissions climbed largely bc of transportation. We are just driving more miles with cheap gas and economic activity. Our new cars are larger, but they are also more efficient than the ones they are replacing...so the fleet average mileage is not climbing.

And of course, the solution here is EVs. You have heard that they are going to take over, and maybe you don't believe it.

Believe it. Two words: cheaper and better.

Last November, the US passed 1 million plug-in cars on the road, two years after Obama's stated goal. EV sales are up and down, but look to me like they are doubling every 2 to 2.5 years, and jumped massively 6 months ago with the Tesla Model 3, whose sales are crushing every FF car (mostly from Germany and Japan) in its price class. Like those makers are seeing big double digit declines in sales in 2018 relative to 2017. I'm not a big Elon fan...but that is a classic 'Made in America' story that you don't seem to hear much about. Instead we get him smoking legal weed on a radio program.

So, something like 3-4% of new sedans sold in the US are plugins. 360,000 sold last year (and half of those are Tesla-badged, believe it or not). Another 1.5 million sold worldwide. Yup, bad old China, with all those coal-burning poor peasants....they are buying 1 million EVs per year, on a much smaller installed auto base. Right now, each of those Chinese people have a per capita CO2 emission less than half of the average American. It looks like with EVs, as they become wealthier, they will never catch up with us in emissions.

There is no point in arguing...EVs are where digital cameras were in 2002. They were cheap and crappy, or not crappy and too expensive. Just. Its like your photography-buff uncle saying back then that digital would never take over, because $200 digital handhelds were worse than film cameras, and fancy digital SLRs (that were equivalent to film quality) cost like $2000.

We all know how that shook out a few years later. Better AND Cheaper crushed film.

EVs will be better and cheaper than FF cars soon. And a couple years after that, better and cheaper EV SUVs and pickups. And at that point they will be in the third world also...bc cheaper.

As for Climate Change science....I think it is easy to be discouraged about the state of the public dialog. But on the bright side, there are only a handful of countries whose govts don't believe in Climate Change. The major ones now are the US and Yemen. Russia is on the fence. That's it. Everyone else gets it. Signed onto Paris. Are fostering the disruption.

And the US IS bringing up the rear, with the stubbornly high per capita emissions (by far the highest for any large nation over 100M people). But even we are making progress, and the disruption is well underway here too. Despite fossil funded media shills telling us otherwise.

So, are the above 'solutions' enough? Not really. They will get there, and with predictable accelerating factors (from future tech) we will avert the WORST possible CC outcomes. But there will be plenty of damage, climate refugees and animal and oceanic extinctions.

Bad, BAD chit. Take a minute and weep for the children unborn, and the broken and diminished natural world we will bequeath them.

But these are nonetheless the solutions that we HAVE TODAY. Let's go support them...

--pay an extra penny or two for local 100% green power.
--buy offsets for $20 when you buy an airline ticket.
--if you can, put solar on your roof.
--buy a suitable EV, and enjoy its better-ness!

This all sends price/demand signals to the govts, utilities and entrepreneurs/investors that the disruption is coming, and they best get on it, or left behind.

And its cool to tell the kids and grandkids.
 
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can you break out the Energy portion, and the T&D portion. and also the monthly meter charge?

NYSEG
Basic Service Charge $17.22
Delivery Charge 6.6 cents/kWh
Electricity Supply (via Energy Cooperative of America Renewables option) 5.9 cents/kWh
blend of 30% off peak, 70% peak, peak rate is 6.5 cents/kWh
Total for electricity = 12.5 cents/kWh (not counting service charge).

Note that the 12.5 cents/kWh rate is not the cheapest I could get - the supplier for that rate is not NYSEG's or NY's normal power mix, but a mix of Biogas, Wind and Hydro. It's probably a penny cheaper per kWh with the default NYSEG supplier.

In the past year I've changed to a 100% wind and solar provider at my home in Central NY, and the rate from that provider is 7.6 cents/kWh. At the time I made this change (September 2018), there was a 3 cent/kWh difference, so that is why I was thinking about 11 cents/kWh (that is what it was in September).

It varies from month to month - but I don't think that changes the equation too much. What I'm trying to draw attention to is that when you separate out the NYC metro area from the rest of NY state, there is a big difference in the cost of electricity. People in Central NY (at least served by NYSEG) don't pay 25 cents/kWh, like some might want us to believe. They pay less than places that get described as having cheap electricity (usually due to lots of coal generation and/or being in a low-cost southern state). Non-metro NYC area NY state is probably a lot like Wisconsin in city/rural makeup - why is there such a big difference if coal is the low-cost way to go?

In the past year I've changed to a 100% wind and solar provider at my home in Central NY, and the rate from that provider is 7.6 cents/kWh. At the time I made this change (September 2018), there was a 3 cent/kWh difference, so that is why I was thinking about 11 cents/kWh (that is what it was in September). What's interesting here is that the 7.6 cents/kWh is for wind+solar - nearly as cheap as what

I have NYSEG service at two different locations. ConEd and LIPA are different rate structures. ConEd and LIPA are higher. ConEd is higher because of the delivery and generation complexities of NY City (80% of electricity for NY City must be generated inside the city boundaries, and distribution is high cost service in a dense city) and LIPA is high due to past mismanagement (I believe that LIPA customers are still paying off the Shoreham Nuke plant boondoggle) and also generation requirements (99% of LIPA electricity must be generated on LI). These generation requirements are set by state authorities to ensure electricity reliability for constrained geographic locations.
 
Yeah, what WoodGeek said - you can adopt what is better (when you can) or complain about change and wonder why you pay more and get less.

Obviously, those that profit by giving you less and charging you more are going to try to convince you that the future is dumb, costs more and won't happen. More and more people seem to be deciding that this is not the case. We are at a pretty real tipping point and short of outlawing solar panels, wind generation or electric vehicles, the future will contain huge amounts of these technologies.
 
Transportation of goods globally is not good for emissions. Marine traffic has a major effect on the environment and is often overlooked. Aviation has a horrendous impact and unfortunately is not going to be replaced with electric anytime soon. And then there is agriculture. It's responsible for about one quarter of direct emissions. Most current agriculture practices are neither healthy for the environment nor climate. This is another place where some serious changes will need to happen in order to address climate change and progress is slow here.
 
Aviation is in the single digit percentages for CO2 emissions right now, IIRC. But it may count double since 50% doesn't get washed out immediately by rain, as may happen at lower altitudes. And its growing. But I think that real progress on the other 90% is possible and productive.

We agree: agriculture sucks. Especially carnivorism. Then esp dairy and beef. A climatarian diet (veg with a little chicken and fish, eggs are OK, dairy is not) can really reduce impacts.
 
I always liked the idea of rigid airships. They cam lift insane amounts and move without too much energy spent.
 
Agreed that aviation is smaller than some sectors but it is growing rapidly. In aviation we are talking about many billions of gallons of fuel burned on the ground and in the air every year. If high altitude intercontinental flights are included the overall effect is considered to be about 4%. The problem with aviation is multiple emissions, not just CO2. Also particulates precipitate on places near airports, harming local environments and health. Some emissions like ozone and NOx remain in the atmosphere. The IPCC estimated that aviation's total climate impact is some two to four times that of its direct CO2 emissions alone. That does not account for the effect of contrails.
 
The fuel eff of new aircraft has steadily improved, but of course given fleet age it takes a while to ripple through, and no great breakthroughs are expected.

One interesting stat I heard (from the late David MacKay, IIRC) is that in terms of fuel energy used, civil aviation on a 2000 era jet moves people at an equivalent of ~100 mpg gasoline. But that family of three driving the 20 mpg SUV 1000 miles...more fuel used. Two people hypermiling 1000 miles in a Prius...same fuel use as flying.

So, its about demand for long distance travel. Switching people to driving....not a clear benefit. When EVs or electric high-speed rail become options...another story there.

Of course, I think very short haul electric aviation (and driverless flying ubers) are going to be a big thing in a decade or so. This has the potential to **reduce** or disrupt the existing, infrastructure heavy, ICE-powered light vehicle transport with comparable primary energy usage. But this is of course more speculative, and could have negative effects, like people just travelling/commuting even more.
 
California is finding out that it's car-centric, sprawling urban designs are not helping with emissions reduction.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...nia-cant-fix-tailpipe-pollution-idUSKCN1PQ4MJ

This same issue showed up at our local high school. The old, statuesque brick high school was torn down in the early 70s and replaced with a Calif. styled spread out campus of modules. The theory then was that the kids would get more exercise, fresh air, etc. Fast forward to 2000 and the reality sunk in that this was an awful design. Multiple buildings were much more costly to maintain, heat, etc. and construction was plagued with issues like mold. Everything had to be torn down and replaced with a large central building again. Urban problems are the same. So many of our cities lack good, non-ICE transportation solutions. In Seattle right now we continue to make auto-centric decisions in spite of rapid growth. High density housing is on a boom, but efficient methods of transporting people to jobs is lagging badly.
 
So, are the above 'solutions' enough? Not really. They will get there, and with predictable accelerating factors (from future tech) we will avert the WORST possible CC outcomes. But there will be plenty of damage, climate refugees and animal and oceanic extinctions.

Bad, BAD chit. Take a minute and weep for the children unborn, and the broken and diminished natural world we will bequeath them.

Very true. And it can get so much worse.

What we can't tell/imagine is how much human behavior will have to change to adapt to the new environment around us. We take it for granted that countries and societies are organized in certain ways and expect them to be so in the future, but humans will have to adapt to the environmental changes that are now happening. That may mean different country boundaries, different government types, less democracy, less individual freedoms or outright lawlessness. It will all be up for grabs when people get desperate.
 
I have been a broken record on this subject as of late (spent a lot of time last year studying it) but I just want to interject the possibilities that may be coming down the line by 2030 for Nuclear Fission-based techs-

1. Small Modular Reactors lighting up remote sites, reducing the need to truck or plane or barge diesel fuel to places such as Alaska

2. Hydrogen production based on high-temperature nuclear reactors, e.g. https://www.terrestrialenergy.com/2...n-hydrogen-with-generation-iv-nuclear-energy/

3. Possible synergy of direct-CO2-capture tech with hydrogen for synthetic hydrocarbons, potentially replacing the carbon source used for aviation fuel and existing vehicles and long-distance diesel locomotives- (broken link removed) - Note this does not strictly require nuclear, just mentioning it since it could be an application.

4. Small modular reactors could also be used for electrifying long-distance railroads without having to plan for extensive grid distribution from afar of the railroad across private property/etc., or purchasing large swaths of land adjacent to the railroads to deploy solar & wind

5. Obviously nuclear fission-based marine propulsion is a well known technology among certain groups, and my hope is focus on newer, safer, low-enriched uranium/weapons-proliferation-resistant designs will bring nuclear into the limelight for large commercial ships.

6. Small modular reactors can combine with battery storage and renewables to produce remote EV charging islands, e.g. in deserts, especially as some SMR designs don't require much water for cooling and can provide desalination with excess heat in some cases. The utility of this should not be underestimated. This ability to create an oasis out of hostile land with abundant dense energy may be an important key to saving and adapting some communities to the destruction from climate change.

My suspicion is what we have going on right now is great and should be promoted as @woodgeek mentioned. Battery technology in particular needs a lot of focus. But when a diversity of SMR designs start becoming ready for prime time, I think we will see some dramatic breakthroughs come seemingly out of left field that will shift the way we relate to energy and energy topics in the future.

Outer space isn't immune to this either, see https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/s...ear_Thermal_Propulsion_Deep_Space_Exploration

What happens when we have zero-CO2 Hydrogen production, paired with zero-CO2 thermal or electric energy production, combined into spacecraft? The early days of a Star Trek society.

What we need to do right now, is make sure we're not getting in the WAY of this technology's development. Demand it be done with safety and effective strategy behind e.g. waste management. Keep up with what we have now but don't abort the emerging baby midway through gestation.
 
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The "science" is hardly settled. Science is never "settled". Science evolves. It's the nature of science and discovery.
Unless you are a fear-mongering lunatic, then you get to believe the earth is going to explode in 12 years.
 
The "science" is hardly settled. Science is never "settled". Science evolves. It's the nature of science and discovery.
Unless you are a fear-mongering lunatic, then you get to believe the earth is going to explode in 12 years.

What you are saying really makes no sense at all - the context of your comment has nothing to do with the original comment about whether the causes of climate change are known.

The causes of climate change are known - you may personally disagree with them and that is your right. But the information available today is good enough to convince the vast majority of people with the knowledge to render an informed opinion on what a buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere will do to the climate. The fact that there are a few outlier scientists who challenge these conclusions does not mean those outlier scientists get equal weight in the debate compared to the vast majority of scientists who agree.

You have a right to opinion and you may agree or disagree with the above. That is where the political process has to meet the scientific consensus and determine what happens next. The political process may not be ready for the scientific consensus, but that doesn't make the scientific consensus "unsettled".

Nobody is debating what the nature of science is and whether it evolves or not. That is outside of the scope of the comment related to making connections between CO2, human activity and climate change. And really, the whole comment is just a bunch of pseudo-babble that says nothing except to express your opinion that you disagree with the conclusions or opinions expressed thus far.

I'll ignore your last comment as just a classic case of "state that anyone who disagrees is some sort of fringe lunatic" - nobody has expressed an opinion even close to that thus far, and by stating what you did, you really don't lend any credibility to whatever argument it was you were trying to make.
 
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What you are saying really makes no sense at all - the context of your comment has nothing to do with the original comment about whether the causes of climate change are known.

The causes of climate change are known - you may personally disagree with them and that is your right. But the information available today is good enough to convince the vast majority of people with the knowledge to render an informed opinion on what a buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere will do to the climate. The fact that there are a few outlier scientists who challenge these conclusions does not mean those outlier scientists get equal weight in the debate compared to the vast majority of scientists who agree.

You have a right to opinion and you may agree or disagree with the above. That is where the political process has to meet the scientific consensus and determine what happens next. The political process may not be ready for the scientific consensus, but that doesn't make the scientific consensus "unsettled".

Nobody is debating what the nature of science is and whether it evolves or not. That is outside of the scope of the comment related to making connections between CO2, human activity and climate change. And really, the whole comment is just a bunch of pseudo-babble that says nothing except to express your opinion that you disagree with the conclusions or opinions expressed thus far.

I'll ignore your last comment as just a classic case of "state that anyone who disagrees is some sort of fringe lunatic" - nobody has expressed an opinion even close to that thus far, and by stating what you did, you really don't lend any credibility to whatever argument it was you were trying to make.
Nice post.

I really don't understand why people, other than fossil fuel company executives, are so passionate about denying this. Really, what is it for them? They are pawns for the industry. Sad that they don't see this.

I always try to weigh the consequences of actions by the potential benefits, vs. the potential consequences.

If climate change deniers are right, we'll just burn away until all the fossil fuels are gone, then have to figure out what to do next. Or, if they are wrong, the earth turns into a horrible, inhospitable place.

Why not just hedge our bets, and do something first?
 
You have a right to opinion and you may agree or disagree with the above. That is where the political process has to meet the scientific consensus and determine what happens next. The political process may not be ready for the scientific consensus, but that doesn't make the scientific consensus "unsettled". Dboon you are certainly right on target here.

as a believer in climate change I disagree with the co2 angle. It doesn't cause all the connections that many science folks claim. Everything from forest fires to wars! Let's look at last fall, Florence. The claims of it's connection to AGW were everywhere. Here is an example with a simple search.

https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search...RGK3PQmjPgAWQaQUkY/JG0xBR7E1sJbMhbg==&iscqry=

On the other hand , you can find info such as this.https://www.cato.org/blog/hurricane-last-time. It offers a consensus , "Here is the prevailing consensus opinion of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (NOAA GFDL): “In the Atlantic, it is premature to conclude that human activities–and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on hurricane activity.”.

All to often people with this "attitude" are ignored or scoffed at. It does in this persons mind cause questions. I'll go, as usual, back to Eisenhower,

"Akin to, and largely responsible for the sweeping changes in our industrial-military posture, has been the technological revolution during recent decades.

In this revolution, research has become central, it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.

...

The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocation, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded.

Yet in holding scientific discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.[1]"

safe for me to think, that's happening on this subject.