Corona Virus

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Chemistry symposium lecture and dinner at UConn I was going to attend on Wednesday just cancelled. Was looking forward to it.

https://rtmajor.chemistry.uconn.edu/

Dear Paul,
In light of the growing unease of many when it comes to traveling and gathering in larger groups, and the increasing unreliable air travel connections, we decided to cancel this week’s R.T. Major Lecture series events.

My wife is supposed to fly to SLC on Sunday.
 
semipro said:
According to the CDC about 13% of adult Americans smoke. If the smoking hypothesis holds then we should see a lower death rate in the U.S. as compared to China - maybe 0.88% based on the numbers above.
Of course, outbreaks within an at-risk population (e.g. senior care facility) rather than the general population can really skew the numbers.
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It's just a hypothesis. There could easily be another factor or factors. Maybe the men there drink more, snort rhino horn or pick their noses more.
 
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mcdougy said:
The problem is ventilators or the lack of them. Protocol is saying to put patients on a vent as soon as possible. They are passing a law here that allows doctors to determine who gets one and who will have to give there's up.
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This is what has been the issue in all areas around the world. We are not prepared for this. The second issue is a major lack of testing kits. Locally the Gates Foundation is ready to throw some money at this to improve the situation here.

Trivializing the situation is exactly the wrong procedure. We are still learning about this virus. It has surprised us in several ways. For instance, it is showing up in warm areas and spreading there. And in Italy with a very good health care system, the mortality rate is so far higher (4.96% as of today). One in twenty is not reassuring.
 
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PaulOinMA said:
Chemistry symposium lecture and dinner at UConn I was going to attend on Wednesday just cancelled. Was looking forward to it.

https://rtmajor.chemistry.uconn.edu/

Dear Paul,
In light of the growing unease of many when it comes to traveling and gathering in larger groups, and the increasing unreliable air travel connections, we decided to cancel this week’s R.T. Major Lecture series events.

My wife is supposed to fly to SLC on Sunday.
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Bet they don't cancel tonights UCONN women's BB championship game( I hope)
 
begreen said:
It has surprised us in several ways. For instance, it is showing up in warm areas and spreading there.
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Does this perhaps shoot holes in the theory that warm weather will stop it as has been suggested?
 
Highbeam said:
Does this perhaps shoot holes in the theory that warm weather will stop it as has been suggested?
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Possibly. There are a lot of unknowns at this stage. It's related to MERS which started in Saudi Arabia. Not a cool place.
 
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paulnlee said:
… Bet they don't cancel tonights UCONN women's BB championship game( I hope) ...
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I've been to Mohegan Sun for some basketball games. Very nice size arena to watch a game.
 
In conversation around the office, most still think it’s just hype, the usual media panic we’ve experience so many times before. They cite mad cow, bird flu, SARS, MERS, and all the other similar panics, that turned out to be zero for us. If they haven’t been reading up on this one, I could actually forgive them for that, but I think they’re wrong.

Folks keep saying it’s no worse than the flu, but the simple math doesn’t support that notion:

Age 50-64: Flu mortality = 5676/9,238,038 = 0.06%
Age 50-59: COVID-19 mortality = 1.3% = 22x worse than flu
Age 60-69: COVID-19 mortality = 3.6% = 60x worse than flu

As you get older, both flu and COVID-19 rates go way up, with the highest COVID-19 I’ve seen at 14.8% estimated and 21.9% confirmed for age 80+. The confirmed rates are always higher, because the rates typically quoted include an estimate for the number of undiagnosed cases in the denominator of that equation, whereas the confirmed stats (when even given) are based only on actual confirmed cases.
 
It's too early to set the denominator, but without any doubt this is much more serious than the common flu.
 
We have heard nothing of warm weather stalling this flu. They are preparing for May to be when things really get going here. Maybe a good idea for those who take prescription medication to have a bit of supply on hand is what the health system here is recommending. The basic info is there's no need to stock up on much stuff to cause the hoarding chaos. We had our first death in Canada today. They are still saying don't panic because it's just a matter of time before this virus infects the masses.
 
This is a direct, sobering blog post by a friend's daughter. It was sent out to her family members and they asked that she post it. She has spent many years treating epidemics. These are her recommendations.

Coronavirus: an email to my family — Juliana Grant, MD MPH

A number of my friends and family asked me what I think is going to happen with coronavirus (COVID-19) and what we should be doing to prepare. Here are a few thoughts about what’s likely to happen and what you can do about it.
www.julianagrant.com www.julianagrant.com
 
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begreen said:
This is a direct, sobering blog post by a friend's daughter. It was sent out to her family members and they asked that she post it. She has spent many years treating epidemics. These are her recommendations.

Coronavirus: an email to my family — Juliana Grant, MD MPH

A number of my friends and family asked me what I think is going to happen with coronavirus (COVID-19) and what we should be doing to prepare. Here are a few thoughts about what’s likely to happen and what you can do about it.
www.julianagrant.com www.julianagrant.com
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Thanks for sharing.
 
There won't be fans at this Division 1 hockey playoff game at RPI, a college north of here isn't stopping fans from going to those playoff games...yet.
www.timesunion.com

RPI hockey quarterfinals to be played without spectators

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) and ECAC Hockey announced Sunday that the upcoming...
www.timesunion.com www.timesunion.com
 
This does not seem to be taken very seriously locally and that is most likely a huge mistake. While there is a fair amount of hoarding taking place, the general public does not appear to have bought into the idea that a good portion of the population may not be around in a year or so.
The idea that any inhabited region is safe seems patently false given the amount of travel that takes place on a daily basis. The Grant email makes as much sense as anything I have seen so far.
Should this last two years, the world as we know it will be devastated, and even if some of us old geezers live through it, we most likely will not relish the new normal.
 
Always thought humanities greatest danger came from asteroids or super volcanos but in reality it comes from something so small we cant even see it without a microscope. I just read about this possibility a few months before all this started. The article was dead on whats happening right now. Sobering!
 
Seasoned Oak said:
That is one of the best articles and explanations iv read so far. Just the facts.
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Seriously i agree, i wish from the start they would have named it some scary name like Bubonic Flu or something lol instead of soft language Covid 19, and then told the truth and said its going to kill a lot of people and make people realize that its not a joke and then maybe people would stop going on cruise ships and vacations in the middle of a near pandemic.
 
As I was taping today, I remembered a couple of other great things out of China. Sheetrock imported from China made many new homes uninhabitable. This must have been about 20 years ago.
I was working there in 2007 & 8 and came home just before the world found out they were putting melamine in baby formula.
I met some great people while there. However, the country as a whole has not done the world many favors lately.
Now they have served up a great big heaping pile of economic instability and disease.
 
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MTY said:
As I was taping today, I remembered a couple of other great things out of China. Sheetrock imported from China made many new homes uninhabitable. This must have been about 20 years ago.
I was working there in 2007 & 8 and came home just before the world found out they were putting melamine in baby formula.
I met some great people while there. However, the country as a whole has not done the world many favors lately.
Now they have served up a great big heaping pile of economic instability and disease.
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I suppose that with 15% of the world's population, they're likely to be blamed for at least 15% of our problems.
 
MTY said:
I met some great people while there. However, the country as a whole has not done the world many favors lately.
Now they have served up a great big heaping pile of economic instability and disease.
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The chinese people iv had contact with dont trust their govt either. For me i avoid anything coming from there if possible particularly food items. If they have standards no one seems to be concerned with them. Now that they have been testing imported chinese goods on a large scale a shocking 12% have been found to be some type of contraband. Counterfeit money,all kinds of illegal drugs including fentanyl, tons of fake merchandise. Ect Ect.I like the people but dont trust the Govt as far as i can throw them. But you cant expect much from a communist country. Now we cant get needed medical supplies cuz we foolishly let them take over that market too for so long and now have been cut off.
 
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begreen said:
How much do you trust a govt. that is more concerned about keeping the numbers low than widespread and fast testing response and accurate numbers?
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More than one that would shoot you for reporting on it.
 
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begreen said:
How much do you trust a govt. that is more concerned about keeping the numbers low than widespread and fast testing response and accurate numbers?
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I see what you did there... ;)
 
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