No clear solution yet. From my local NWS discussion
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Uncertainty is the key word for the weekend and start of next week. Southern stream becomes
active later this week, leading to a complex low developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The 5h
trough ends up
cutoff over the northeastern GOMEX
Sat night with the
cutoff and the surface low moving across the Florida Peninsula Sun then turning northeast Sun night into Mon.
Medium range guidance is all over the
place, with solutions ranging from the stacked low passing well west of the area (unlikely) to passing well off the Southeast coast.
Despite the range of solutions and high uncertainty there are
tendencies that can be used to focus on the most
likely outcome. The amplified nature of the system would support slower solutions. The tenuous nature of the northern stream/southern stream connection points to the offshore solution as more
likely. By nature a southern stream system would keep highs near to slightly above
climo with
lows running well above
climo.
In summary, the driest day appears to be
Sat, although the coastal
trough may bring some light rain
Sat night as it moves onshore. Sun has the potential to be rather wet as does at least the first part of Mon. There is at least some chance
rainfall lingers into Tue if the slowest and more offshore solutions verify.