CATL pushed production battery capacity to 500wH/kg

[stoveliker]

I also think that ev insurance is affected by insurance companies wanting more statistics before they are willing to decrease the risk assessment.

 

[EbS-P]

I think when EVs are mainstream ICE will be more expensive to insure. Currently EVs are the specialty that requires retraining and retooling across the industry, but I think that in the long term parts supply and techs will be cheaper than what is required for ICE.

What I have read is that repair costs are high on the Teslas. Not many second hand parts and only OEM parts. Which from what I have read can come with really long wait times.

I think you will find that repair costs have gone up a lot post covid and wait times are moths to get body work done.

But since Tesla can track driving behavior and they claim safer operation while on auto pilot, one could really envision this idea of a personal insurance rate based on actual driving.

Bat to the original post. How much does the seals semi pack currently weigh? Figure this batter could cut weight in 1/2?? I’m guessing you are saving 5,000 pounds. That’s not nothing but how often is a truck at max weight capacity. I just don’t see the cost savings of lighter batteries in heavy duty trucks.

 

[begreen]

one could really envision this idea of a personal insurance rate based on actual driving.

It's coming. Allstate already offers that as an option. Tracking is done via a phone app's GPS.

 

[peakbagger]

Insurance companies have been tracking EV costs and they do not like what they see, particularly Teslas. In order to drive down weight, Tesla is integrating the batteries as structural components. There really is no way to unbend a Tesla if the structure gets tweaked. There is zero competition for most Tesla repair work as Tesla can and does "brick" a car if it is not fixed by Tesla. High insurance costs are a well known issue with Tesla and Tesla has its own insurance which reportedly is based on usage.

I think Ford and GM being legacy companies are trying to stick with conventional construction to keep the cars able to be rebuilt. They are coming out with EV specific chassis but lagging Tesla.

BTW every car on the road with air bags has some sort of crash data recorder hidden away somewhere. The early models only tracked a few items but these days the recorder is recording everything continuously. The insurance companies and police have the right to access this data after an accident. It is not done routinely yet but it has been done in high profile cases. Several insurance companies offer discounts for drivers to install a device on the OBD 2 port that records speed, rapid acceleration braking and other indications of aggressive driving. If they do not like what they see, they can elect not to renew the policy.

Another BTW hidden away in some recent regulations is that every car in the US sold in a few years (2026)will be equipped with an alcohol breathalyzer interlock. https://jalopnik.com/the-in-car-breathalyzer-is-only-a-few-years-away-1850268311#:~:text=President Biden's 2021 Infrastructure Investment,cars, as soon as 2026.

 

[stoveliker]

Another BTW hidden away in some recent regulations is that every car in the US sold in few years (2026)will be equipped with a alcohol breathalyzer interlock. https://jalopnik.com/the-in-car-bre...frastructure Investment,cars, as soon as 2026.

And I applaud that principle.

In only wonder how the different levels in different states are taken into account (and if one moves between states would one have to reset the "lock out" level, as it surely won't be zero...)?

 

[SpaceBus]

What I have read is that repair costs are high on the Teslas. Not many second hand parts and only OEM parts. Which from what I have read can come with really long wait times.

I think you will find that repair costs have gone up a lot post covid and wait times are moths to get body work done.

But since Tesla can track driving behavior and they claim safer operation while on auto pilot, one could really envision this idea of a personal insurance rate based on actual driving.

Bat to the original post. How much does the seals semi pack currently weigh? Figure this batter could cut weight in 1/2?? I’m guessing you are saving 5,000 pounds. That’s not nothing but how often is a truck at max weight capacity. I just don’t see the cost savings of lighter batteries in heavy duty trucks.

E trucks are making headway in LTL configurations where they are NOT hauling full loads for long distances. There's a lot of focus on long haul trucks in this thread, but they are not the key point of investment at this point. Per pound they are actually fairly efficient. Unlike LTL trucks driving less than 150 miles in one day nowhere near the full weight capacity. I agree with you, on an LTL truck this is likely not a big gain in capacity. EV proliferation will begin at the "last mile" level and work its way up to long haul trucking. Economies of scale will just keep on pushing ever forward until the scales tip. The rate is amazingly fast.

 

[EbS-P]

E trucks are making headway in LTL configurations where they are NOT hauling full loads for long distances. There's a lot of focus on long haul trucks in this thread, but they are not the key point of investment at this point. Per pound they are actually fairly efficient. Unlike LTL trucks driving less than 150 miles in one day nowhere near the full weight capacity. I agree with you, on an LTL truck this is likely not a big gain in capacity. EV proliferation will begin at the "last mile" level and work its way up to long haul trucking. Economies of scale will just keep on pushing ever forward until the scales tip. The rate is amazingly fast.

So fast that there will only one American Muscle ICE car, the Mustang in 2024 and then after that. Nothing…. Let that’s sink in. They probably won’t make enough so demand will be sky high. Even without new batteries they are dead. Camero, Challenger, Charger. Gone. The mustang is the only car (by car I mean not SUV) Ford is selling. Change happens really fast

 

[peakbagger]

So fast that there will only one American Muscle ICE car, the Mustang in 2024 and then after that. Nothing…. Let that’s sink in. They probably won’t make enough so demand will be sky high. Even without new batteries they are dead. Camero, Challenger, Charger. Gone. The mustang is the only car (by car I mean not SUV) Ford is selling. Change happens really fast

I think the Corvette guys might object or would they get classified as a "sports" car?

 

[begreen]

I think the Corvette guys might object or would they get classified as a "sports" car?

The Camaro also will be ICEd in 2024. Though to the point, that will be a short production.

Chevrolet Camaro production will officially end after 2024 model year

Production for the sixth generation Chevrolet Camaro will officially come to an end after the 2024 model year.

www.autoblog.com

 

[EbS-P]

I think the Corvette guys might object or would they get classified as a "sports" car?

I think It’s a mid engine almost super car now. Once it got a rear transaxle I think it lost the muscle car label.

The Camaro also will be ICEd in 2024. Though to the point, that will be a short production.

Chevrolet Camaro production will officially end after 2024 model year

Production for the sixth generation Chevrolet Camaro will officially come to an end after the 2024 model year.

www.autoblog.com

By all accounts it was a really good performer. I can’t say I’m sad. I never was into to two door muscle cars. I always wanted a Volvo R series. Now I just want a 15 passenger van. Can’t get those either. I don’t know what the landscape for those will be in 12 months. If they get figured in fleet mileage CAFE standards they might just get dropped to sell trucks.

 

[peakbagger]

My guess is your 15 passenger van may be electric. ICE Muscle Cars are no longer King of the Hill, various electric cars are as quick or quicker. IMHO at this point quickness is the ability to transfer the HP to the road and tires, HP although important is not the limiting factor.

Barring carbon neutral liquid fuel becoming economic and available, I just do not know how much longer ICE trucks and vans are going to be around.

 

[EbS-P]

My guess is your 15 passenger van may be electric. ICE Muscle Cars are no longer King of the Hill, various electric cars are as quick or quicker. IMHO at this point quickness is the ability to transfer the HP to the road and tires, HP although important is not the limiting factor.

Barring carbon neutral liquid fuel becoming economic and available, I just do not know how much longer ICE trucks and vans are going to be around.

I’m kinda hopeful for an equivalent ford v6 Ecco boost 1 ton van. Thinking a towing a camper cross country. Only BEV vehicle right now is attempt that in is a Tesla. Seven seat model X would be the only option. And that’s really too small inside for 7 people driving 8-12 hours at a time.

 

[SpaceBus]

I think It’s a mid engine almost super car now. Once it got a rear transaxle I think it lost the muscle car label.

By all accounts it was a really good performer. I can’t say I’m sad. I never was into to two door muscle cars. I always wanted a Volvo R series. Now I just want a 15 passenger van. Can’t get those either. I don’t know what the landscape for those will be in 12 months. If they get figured in fleet mileage CAFE standards they might just get dropped to sell trucks.

I think the transaxle has been around since the C4, but they've always been sports cars. The C1 was designed to compete with European roadsters, even if it wasn't 100% successful. Generally a muscle car is defined as putting a larger engine in a smaller not sporty car (usually full size engines in intermediate or compact cars).

 

[begreen]

I’m kinda hopeful for an equivalent ford v6 Ecco boost 1 ton van. Thinking a towing a camper cross country. Only BEV vehicle right now is attempt that in is a Tesla. Seven seat model X would be the only option. And that’s really too small inside for 7 people driving 8-12 hours at a time.

That's a niche case. I wouldn't hold my breath for that one. Most commercial EV vans don't need more than 200-250 mile range capacity. If and when it is available in a long-range version, the kids may be grown up.

 

[peakbagger]

My thoughts are we in the battery equivalent of Moore's law for computer chips for battery cost and density. Lots of irons in the fire all over the world and I expect that the latest and greatest tech will be outdated yesterday's news in a year or two.

 

[stoveliker]

I think Moore's law was way faster. Doubling of energy density is not happening every year... (yet?)

Unfortunately.

 

[SpaceBus]

I think Moore's law was way faster. Doubling of energy density is not happening every year... (yet?)

Unfortunately.

I think the doubling will happen soon and we are still at the start of the curve.

 

[stoveliker]

I hope so!

 

[ABMax24]

I'd say EV adoption will more closely follow solar adoption, and battery density more along the lines of solar efficiency gains. and we're near the start of the curve for both.

I think Moore's law is a poor analogue, because it's growth was multidimensional. Process nodes were rapidly decreasing in size at the same time transistor counts and logical core counts were greatly increasing, core clock speeds were increasing, bit counts were increasing, and instruction sets were improving in efficiency and able to perform more instructions per cycle.

Batteries improvement is pretty much single dimensional, we're relying on energy density increases to solve the problem, I guess we could consider charge charge/discharge rates as well, an EV with a 200 mile range seems pitiful, but if it had a 5 minute charge time it would certainly have useful applications.

 

[begreen]

We are dragging our heels. In spite of that, Jalopnik reports that EVs will make up almost 20% of global car sales this year. That is one in 5 new vehicles will be EVs. China is clearly setting the pace here.

EVs Will Make Up Almost 20 Percent of New Car Sales Globally in 2023: Report

Nearly 1-in-5 new vehicles sold across the globe will be an EV this year, and they're getting cheaper.

jalopnik.com

 

[stoveliker]

I'd say EV adoption will more closely follow solar adoption, and battery density more along the lines of solar efficiency gains. and we're near the start of the curve for both.

I think Moore's law is a poor analogue, because it's growth was multidimensional. Process nodes were rapidly decreasing in size at the same time transistor counts and logical core counts were greatly increasing, core clock speeds were increasing, bit counts were increasing, and instruction sets were improving in efficiency and able to perform more instructions per cycle.

Batteries improvement is pretty much single dimensional, we're relying on energy density increases to solve the problem, I guess we could consider charge charge/discharge rates as well, an EV with a 200 mile range seems pitiful, but if it had a 5 minute charge time it would certainly have useful applications.

Moore's law was as linear as one can get: the number of transistors in an integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years.
Nothing more than transistor density.

Here (batteries) it's energy density.

Of course such simple laws do not determine reality, they only describe an observed relation. For ICs, all the parameters you mention play a role in consumer experience. For batteries energy density surely is not the only parameter either (longevity comes to mind, charging speed, etc.)

 

[DBoon]

A 250-mile range for many is fine and usually enough to get between larger urban areas. It seems most cars are daily commuters, kid transport, and shopping trip vehicles.

This is, indeed, the rational way to view electric car range, and how I view it.

Having said that, at least half (or more) of the population of car buyers views this irrationally and/or considers their gas car to be empty when it is at half a tank. It is these people for whom a longer range battery is really required. No amount of educating them on the availability of fast charging stations, fast charging times, etc. will convince them that it is ok to drive 230 miles in a BEV with a 250 mile range before considering to recharge.

Maybe these bigger batteries with longer range become available and affordable, or maybe some people, in time, get over their fears of range and/or temper their fears when they realize how much more a vehicle will cost with a 500 mile battery.

 

[SpaceBus]

I think range anxiety stems from the fact that ICE have to be "recharged" at special places. I know some people that won't go below half a tank because they worry the station may be closed for some reason and then they are stuck until it opens. This is just an example. When chargers are literally everywhere I think people will have less anxiety. Renters are also a big group that have less ability to take advantage of a pick perk of EVs, "filling up" at home while you sleep.

 

[EbS-P]

I think range anxiety stems from the fact that ICE have to be "recharged" at special places. I know some people that won't go below half a tank because they worry the station may be closed for some reason and then they are stuck until it opens. This is just an example. When chargers are literally everywhere I think people will have less anxiety. Renters are also a big group that have less ability to take advantage of a pick perk of EVs, "filling up" at home while you sleep.

I was without my home charger for 8 days. Just had to plan a trip to the charging station like you would a store run. I wonder What percent of the population is more than 20 minutes from a Tesla super charger. That would be a very interesting data point for this idea of range anxiety.

 

[stoveliker]

I was without my home charger for 8 days. Just had to plan a trip to the charging station like you would a store run. I wonder What percent of the population is more than 20 minutes from a Tesla super charger. That would be a very interesting data point for this idea of range anxiety.

I don't know that that is relevant. It's not near your home that range anxiety hits. It's far away from home, on a trip thru an area that is not familiar.

What is relevant is what part of "traffic" (vehicle miles driven) happens farther than 20 minutes from a charging station. I think.