Cheap Energy, Economic Growth & Climate Change

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jebatty

jebatty

Minister of Fire
Hearth Supporter
Jan 1, 2008
5,796
Northern MN
Not an original idea, but it is readily apparent that economic growth and cheap, abundant energy go hand in hand. The tremendous economic expansion of the 20th century and continuing was and is fueled by cheap energy, first coal and then by massive amounts of oil. We're now coming to grips with the unseen or ignored cost of all of that cheap energy -- climate change. So what for the future? The answer is readily apparent, solar, solar and more solar. Also not an original idea.

The thought never would have occurred to me even 10 years ago that I could furnish all of my household electric needs for an investment of $20-30,000 (today's dollars, far fewer in yesterday dollars present value). The dramatic decrease in the cost of solar voltaic combined with increase in efficiency has made that entirely possible. And as solar electric multiplies across the landscape, from residential sized to utility scale, adverse climate change impacts of fossil fuels will continue to diminish.

"So is the climate threat solved? Well, it should be. The science is solid; the technology is there; the economics look far more favorable than anyone expected. All that stands in the way of saving the planet is a combination of ignorance, prejudice and vested interests." Sounds all too human, doesn't it?
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/18/opinion/krugman-salvation-gets-cheap.html
 
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Over the next few years, I think we are going to see the naysayers switch from saying "solar will never work", to "solar will never provide more than 20% of our electricity". Analysts are expecting PV's recent exponential growth to continue at least up to that point...if it keeps doubling every 1.5 years, going from 0.5% (today) to 20% would take about 13 years, or sometime between 2025-2030.

That will be a big business.

Of course, climate change mitigation will require large-scale electrification of transportation and home heating, and growth beyond that 20% solar/wind level. While today's low-storage grid starts to choke above 20% renewable energy, I would be surprised if there weren't a wide array of solutions available 15 years from now, CSP-thermal storage, utility-scale flow batteries, EV to grid, etc.

In 2030, the naysayers will be saying "solar will never provide 50% of all energy". And they will still be wrong.
 
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I think it's going to take much more than just solar. The easiest exploitable source we have now is conservation. We waste a lot. Complete industries can and should be built based on designing and implementing conserving technologies. Solar, wind, geothermal and limited nuclear energy are what are going to be required to help us transition. Agricultural reform is a necessity to conserve resources. Population control wouldn't hurt too. But the biggest issue is a lack of global political will. That is a tough nut to crack.
 
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Go visit a working class area on the other side of the planet and ask yourself if the problem is solved. I visited the other side of the planet in January, and it made me appreciate the US air pollution laws more than ever. Maybe things have changed since January, I'm always hopeful...

In the meantime, the 4.4kW PV array on my roof helps avoid burning more fossil fuels over on this side of the world.
 
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woodgeek said:
Over the next few years, I think we are going to see the naysayers switch from saying "solar will never work", to "solar will never provide more than 20% of our electricity". Analysts are expecting PV's recent exponential growth to continue at least up to that point...if it keeps doubling every 1.5 years, going from 0.5% (today) to 20% would take about 13 years, or sometime between 2025-2030.
Click to expand...

That is just wishful thinking. The growth in manufacturing capacity will stop way before that. Or do you really think that we will really have enough PV companies that they can churn out solar panels for providing 10% of global energy consumption within 1.5 years? We are not talking about adding more transistors to one chip but doubling assembly lines every 1.5 years.

Of course, climate change mitigation will require large-scale electrification of transportation and home heating, and growth beyond that 20% solar/wind level. While today's low-storage grid starts to choke above 20% renewable energy, I would be surprised if there weren't a wide array of solutions available 15 years from now, CSP-thermal storage, utility-scale flow batteries, EV to grid, etc.
Click to expand...

I hope you will be right. Still, I wish we would put also more effort in a contingency plan if we will not get there quite as fast.
 
Grisu said:
That is just wishful thinking. The growth in manufacturing capacity will stop way before that. Or do you really think that we will really have enough PV companies that they can churn out solar panels for providing 10% of global energy consumption within 1.5 years? We are not talking about adding more transistors to one chip but doubling assembly lines every 1.5 years.

I hope you will be right. Still, I wish we would put also more effort in a contingency plan if we will not get there quite as fast.
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I was specifically talking about the US case, not global needs. Different countries will be on different curves...as you know Germany is already at 10% solar with half the US's annual solar resource. You are saying Germany can do it with expensive panels today, and the US can't do the same thing with far cheaper panels over the next 15 years?? That's the conservative projection, assuming only market forces, and not requiring any massive govt incentives, now that panel prices are low.

As for factories....if you make money building one factory, you make twice as much money building two factories....when the market and resources are available, industrial capacity has no problem growing exponentially.

All this griping and talk and call for PV regulation from the utilities over the last year (as discussed in the green room) is because they have now seen the handwriting on the wall. When PV was expensive, and lower panel prices were just a projection, most utilities were not worried. After prices collapsed to near or below grid parity in many US markets, suddenly they are all realizing they need to plan for a solar future. So in some (mostly red) states, there are now political attempts to block homeowner PV or make it too expensive. In some other states, like MN they are trying to build a viable business plan, like VOSP.
 
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begreen said:
I think it's going to take much more than just solar.
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Indeed. But I think the point of the Krugman column is that from an engineering point of view, it is clear that a robust RE-driven future is shaping up. There IS more than enough solar power in the world to meet projected human needs (especially factoring in efficiency gain/savings), and the price of the equipment is approaching the costs of the fossil resource. The solar equipment is also made out of Si and Al, both major constituents of the earths crust.

Do we need better US and global policy to solve the global warming problem? Yes. But the days when folks say that 'there is no solution other than clean coal, or nukes, because RE can't do it [insert reason]' and still be taken seriously?, well they are drawing to a close.

The RE 'ecotopia' will not be here in 10 years...but in 10 years we will know what it will look like, we will be on a capitalist-driven path towards it, and we will have all the technology to build it in production.
 
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I read yesterday that the world is subsidizing petroleum industry at the rate of approximately a half trillion dollars per year. Perhaps it's time to redirect those funds instead of enabling a fossil fuel habit?
 
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begreen said:
We are in deep trouble when political will is determined by the highest bidder.
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We're there and the Supreme Court seems to add more nails to the coffin with every related decision.
 
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woodgeek said:
The 'solar report' from market analysts at Citigroup came out a few weeks ago. Some of the money shots are summarized here:

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/04/02/citigroup-solar-modules-could-fall-to-25-centswatt-by-2020/

My fave, is the projection that residential PV systems will be between $1.12-$1.40 per W, all-in, pre-incentive, by 2020. _g
Utility scale systems spec'ed out at $0.65/W in 2020.
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I like this report. A bit optimistic. And it's over a year old. Any update from this year?
 
Indeed. Figure a lot of places in NorthAmerica are around 1200 hours of nominal output per year. At $1.20/W all in, each W of capacity will make 1.2 kWh/year. Replacing $0.10/kWh grid power, simple payback would be 10 years. If your power was $0.18 cents (e.g. CT or NYC), or you had a SW US resource, then you are talking about a 6 year simple payback. With fair VOSP pricing above grid retail rates, you could get even shorter.

In my case, I have a bit of shading (40%?) and room for a 4-5 kW array, but for a hypothetical $6k I would prob go for it.
 
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Thinking a little more....

A lot of folks think that we will invert the current time of use rates for kWh....instead of high during the day and low at night (like now), it will be almost free during the day and more expensive (keyed to fossil fuel) at night. Getting close to happening in Germany and HI today.

The cheap way to heat would be to run a heat pump (DHW or space heating) during the day, running temps several degrees above current setpoints, to bank the BTUs, then shut 'er down when the sun goes down and cruise on stored heat until the next morning.
 
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woodgeek said:
The cheap way to heat would be to run a heat pump (DHW or space heating) during the day, running temps several degrees above current setpoints, to bank the BTUs, then shut 'er down when the sun goes down and cruise on stored heat until the next morning.
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Kind of like heating with a wood stove...
 
Xcel Energy in March announced plans for $200 million solar in Colorado, and a couple of days ago announced plans for 100 MW solar in MN over the 100 MW to be provided by Geronimo.
 
Loving the predictions of $1.50/W installed costs for solar, cause I think the incentives will dry up fast as consumer adoption ramps up.

Here's another LA Times article on forecast electric rates. It's gonna be the haves (with PV) against the have-nots (those who want PV).

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-power-prices-20140426,0,6329274.story#axzz303K8DmpE

On a related note, this NG price projection will likely make me reconsider filling my unused masonry FP with a gas unit. Time to start looking at pellet inserts again.
 
[Hearth.com] Cheap Energy, Economic Growth & Climate Change

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