EV developments

  • Active since 1995, Hearth.com is THE place on the internet for free information and advice about wood stoves, pellet stoves and other energy saving equipment.

    We strive to provide opinions, articles, discussions and history related to Hearth Products and in a more general sense, energy issues.

    We promote the EFFICIENT, RESPONSIBLE, CLEAN and SAFE use of all fuels, whether renewable or fossil.
Small economy cars don't sell in North America, regardless of powertrain.
Perhaps not in Canada, but The Corolla is a very popular car. So is the Prius. There are lots of them around here as well as Subaru Imprezas, Nissan Sentras, smaller Mazdas, etc. Also, remember that Mexico is part of North America. There's many small cars there.
 
  • Like
Reactions: stoveliker
  • Like
Reactions: begreen
  • Like
Reactions: stoveliker
If the new Prius Prime had come out a few years earlier, I might be driving one even though it would mean I needed a second winter car. My Rav 4 Prime despite being a bit thirstier is a year round car. In much of the US the winter capabilities are not needed and the Prius could be year rounder. Of course there is the image affect. A Rav 4 prime is a SUV, I can put the kayak racks, a big cargo carrier on the roof and mud tires and drive around with them year round to show I am an outdoors person, when I commute to work. ;)
 
  • Like
Reactions: EbS-P
And an interesting take on hybrids...

Someone really needs to dig into the methodology for the ACEEE. I might get time today but I’ll post here so I can come back later. Big questions I want to know. What percentage electric vs gas miles for the phev. How are grid emissions forecast in the future. Assuming the average 12.5 year live of a vehicle what the grid emissions will be in the future have a impact on the scores.

 

Attachments

  • Greener car methodology.pdf
    1,015.7 KB · Views: 27
If the new Prius Prime had come out a few years earlier, I might be driving one even though it would mean I needed a second winter car. My Rav 4 Prime despite being a bit thirstier is a year round car. In much of the US the winter capabilities are not needed and the Prius could be year rounder. Of course there is the image affect. A Rav 4 prime is a SUV, I can put the kayak racks, a big cargo carrier on the roof and mud tires and drive around with them year round to show I am an outdoors person, when I commute to work. ;)

You need to put a snorkel on for deep water crossings. Cause you never know!
 
They are only conceding the 'compact EV' segment in China, which is hugely overpopulated and CCP govt subsidized, seems like a savvy business decision to me.
Funny you mention that. I just read an article this morning about the U.S. and some other countries pressuring China to slow down on dumping their subsidized green tech onto them or they would start putting tariff's on those goods. This could probably be another topic in itself. Quote from the article:

  • Europe launched an anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles from China at the end of last year — with possible tariffs to follow. A top official warned of a "race to the bottom" in EV prices.

 
Someone really needs to dig into the methodology for the ACEEE. I might get time today but I’ll post here so I can come back later. Big questions I want to know. What percentage electric vs gas miles for the phev. How are grid emissions forecast in the future. Assuming the average 12.5 year live of a vehicle what the grid emissions will be in the future have a impact on the scores.

Skimmed most of this. Methodology is reasonably sound. Based on work done in 2016. The BEV in use emissions are weighted by state by state BEV sales and the the grid emissions of that corresponding state. So as more EVs were sold California (and it’s relatively cleaner grid emissions) accounted for fewer sales as percentage thus raising the co2 emissions of the BEV average by (maybe I read 5% for the this most recent update).

It’s as good as anyone could do but I do think there should be some error bars on the final ratings as there are a many inclusions of unreliable data and they are up front about that.

Did not read closely enough to figure out if the grid emissions projections they used in 2016 have been updated.

I’ll state that I don’t see how a Prius purchased today could have lower impacts than a BEV when driven for 120k miles. The battery in the Prius is 4.2 times smaller. So that must account for all of the difference.
 
Are the hybrid emissions tested with a warm engine? The city emissions from a hybrid can be poorer. Yes, the burn less fuel, but the engine is also doing a lot of cold starts which means more emissions and a harder engine life.
 
Perhaps not in Canada, but The Corolla is a very popular car. So is the Prius. There are lots of them around here as well as Subaru Imprezas, Nissan Sentras, smaller Mazdas, etc. Also, remember that Mexico is part of North America. There's many small cars there.

Maybe my post should have said micro instead of small. The Mirage numbers I was quoting were US sales.

We have those cars here as well, but they're kind of becoming mid-size more than anything, which the Model 3 already competes with.
 
Yes, the Smart car, tiny Scion IQ, Fiat 500, Honda Fit, were popular here for awhile, but I am seeing more EVs take over that segment locally. They are more useful as city cars where parking is at a premium.
 
I was in a bumper to bumper post eclipse drive home taking close to 2 hours to go what normally takes 20 minutes with my Rav 4 Prime. While a majority of the thousands of cars on the road with me were either idling or the auto stop start braking function was cycling on and off every 30 seconds or more to crawl forward a car length, my rav 4 just crawled off the battery. No doubt in this situation, a charged plug in hybrid (charged with surplus solar from my solar system) or EV was a far less emissions method of getting through the traffic jam.
 
  • Like
Reactions: EbS-P
I was in a bumper to bumper post eclipse drive home taking close to 2 hours to go what normally takes 20 minutes with my Rav 4 Prime. While a majority of the thousands of cars on the road with me were either idling or the auto stop start braking function was cycling on and off every 30 seconds or more to crawl forward a car length, my rav 4 just crawled off the battery. No doubt in this situation, a charged plug in hybrid (charged with surplus solar from my solar system) or EV was a far less emissions method of getting through the traffic jam.

I spent 5 hours driving from Plattsburg to Albany, 159 miles. About 11 hours total to get from Enosburg VT for the eclipse to my home in PA. 400 miles.

Would've loved some smart car features, but I was in the 2015 Volt.
 
Not sure I posted a video of emerging sodium ion tech before. If I find it I will. The history of sodium ion goes back to the 70s. Look if CATL’s CEO says solid state is dangerous one of two things has happened. They really don’t see a short term viable path or they have it figured out and are wanting to surprise everyone.
 
The French have been producing solid-sate batteries for a decade now. They were in the Boleré Bluecars and now in Daimler buses. They claim no risk of dendrite formation and no risk of thermal runaway.

 
Nice article. There is certainly a lot going on at Tesla these days.

—On the low cost EVs, lots of folks are upset that plans to build the $25k EV were dropped. This seems a good business decision. The legacy makers are struggling to make a profit on $40k EVs, and the only makers that can make a $25k EV right now have a fat CCP subsidy that Tesla doesn't get. The article makes it sound like this decision was made some time ago...old news. And ofc Tesla is still pushing EV production costs lower faster than anyone.

—On the robotaxis, lots of chatter about a breakthrough in full self driving. The FSD 12 release (and free trials to get customers) is reported to be impressive and much more 'human like' in its driving behavior. What happened? My guess is that Tesla has stood up a 'digital twin' approach for training both FSD and the bots. Basically, let FSD play super-realistic MarioCart for a few million hours, without risking any customer lives. Obviously a major goal of Musk's for a long time.

—On the energy business, the solar part has been languishing for years, while the battery business is going strong and cell limited. And hugely expanding the user base for superchargers in 2024? They can build and install (and back up with batteries) DCFC stalls much cheaply than anyone else in the US. So growing that business and charging captive non-Tesla EV drivers whatever you want for a kWh... good business decision.

—On the battery cell business, the industry is all excited about CATLs new high speed charging, energy dense LFP platform. It is believed that Tesla is licensing this latest cell tech from CATL directly, and bought a whole line of cell production equipment which has been installed in Nevada already. It seems likely that this will have to obsolete some other cell work or production at Tesla... let those folks go.

I agree that Elon is not a good person or likeable. But he seems to see and chase good tech opportunities. While he seldom admits mistakes publicly, he does rapidly change course when the situation requires. He is surrounded by 'yes men', but appears to be getting some sound data for decision making anyway. How long that will last is unclear.
 
It’s clear to me that EV adoption has been politicized just like climate change. The fact the the Government will give you $7500 tax credit is barely moving the sales needle is unconscionable to me. (Maybe it has and my expectations are just unrealistic) it may not be much money to some but it is to me.

Tesla is just responding to the current market. All other major automaker did this last year.

The IP Tesla has is very valuable. That hasn’t changed. They scraped their algorithm drive software in favor of AI driven solutions. Who knows how many lines of code they just threw in the trash on that switch but all indications are that it has been the biggest improvements to date.

What won’t change with this layoff? The model Y will continue to out sell all competitors. The model 3 is a great platform and once available for the full tax credit will be a great purchase but you can still lease one with the full credit.

So unless there is another decent price cut or oil is over $100/brl I don’t see EV sales really accelerating.

Too many people don’t care enough to understand the implications of climate change and why the transition to renewable energy is so important. So we’re leaving it to a capitalist system being regulated by government with a significant portion of participants, not wanting to govern.
 
It’s clear to me that EV adoption has been politicized just like climate change. The fact the the Government will give you $7500 tax credit is barely moving the sales needle is unconscionable to me. (Maybe it has and my expectations are just unrealistic) it may not be much money to some but it is to me.

...

So unless there is another decent price cut or oil is over $100/brl I don’t see EV sales really accelerating.

Too many people don’t care enough to understand the implications of climate change and why the transition to renewable energy is so important. So we’re leaving it to a capitalist. System been regulated by government with a significant portion of participants, not wanting to govern.

I think we live in different worlds (or at least states).

I think that US EV adoption jumped from 2% to 8% almost coincident with the roll out of the new credits 20 months ago. I think this honestly 'pulled forward' natural demand growth, that might've gotten there in 2025 without the IRA. But the nature of such pulling forwards, is that it gives a short term boost, which is now exhausted. We will return to natural growth rates now. And ofc interest rates don't help.

So, NACS rollout for other makes. Continued build out and improvement of EA and other non Tesla networks. And if interest rates start to fall... BOOM, we will see EVs take off again above the 10% level.

I work with a bunch of smart people under 35. They are all in on climate change, renewables and EVs. And the IRA is the law of the land, despite a few pols (mostly) pretending to hate it and EVs.
 
I work with a bunch of smart people under 35
i wish I could say the same. Our 18-23 demographic won’t even sign up for a class if it meets on Friday.
 
It’s clear to me that EV adoption has been politicized just like climate change. The fact the the Government will give you $7500 tax credit is barely moving the sales needle is unconscionable to me. (Maybe it has and my expectations are just unrealistic) it may not be much money to some but it is to me.

The govt always has good intentions, but it’s not always clear if you’re the beneficiary. If the populace feels it’s a bad idea, than it is. It’s kind of like marriage: If you’re in a disagreement with the wife and she’s mad at you, does it really matter if you’re right? To some, the govt is giving you a $7500 credit to harm themselves. A lot of money, yes, but is the price acceptable? To some yes, to others no.

What I wish the govt would learn, is that if they destroy the population’s trust, its natural for the people to be wary the next time they are asked to trust them.
 
What I wish the govt would learn, is that if they destroy the population’s trust, its natural for the people to be wary the next time they are asked to trust them.
This gets a lot more challenging when constant disinformation and gaslighting with the intent on sowing distrust is so prevalent.
 
  • Like
Reactions: torpesco and EbS-P
Very true! I don’t think you can blame people for being wary when they don’t know what is true and what isn’t.