EV developments

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Since around 2016 there has been a concerted effort to sow distrust in science, government, etc. It peaks around election years. This is usually fostered by foreign antagonists and it's getting worse. With AI now in their toolbox it will not get better. America needs to amp up critical thinking skills, starting in grade school.
 
EatenByLimestone said:
Very true! I don’t think you can blame people for being wary when they don’t know what is true and what isn’t.
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I want to blame them for not putting more effort into seeking facts.
 
that will be an extreme challenge as they have been dumbing down the schools for years.
 
EbS-P said:
I want to blame them for not putting more effort into seeking facts.
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Go ahead, lol. They’re not going to lose sleep over it.
 
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begreen said:
Since around 2016 there has been a concerted effort to sow distrust in science, government, etc. It peaks around election years. This is usually fostered by foreign antagonists and it's getting worse. With AI now in their toolbox it will not get better.
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Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton used misinformation against each other. They learned from what they considered to be the classics: the Romans and Greeks.

Agree, though, that AI is already making it worse, and it will get much worse yet. AI enables more believable-sounding misinformation to be more tightly tailored to specific groups, and in much larger quantity. Over the next small number of years, the internet could cease to be a useful resource for news and background information.

The problem is not AI per se - it's just a tool. The problem is how productive the tool is, and how it is used.
 
EbS-P said:
I want to blame them for not putting more effort into seeking facts.
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One person's fact is another person's propaganda. And a datum, even the hardest, most plain factual, can easily be both true and propaganda at the same time.
 
A study and article arguing that EV charging is not straining the grid, and load shifting is actually lowering everyone's electricity.

chargedevs.com

Study finds EVs are lowering electricity bills for all customers, not just EV owners - Charged EVs

There’s a lot of speculation about the effects widespread EV adoption will have on the electrical grid, but until now, little hard data. A recent study has found that, so far, EVs are having a salutary effect on the grid, saving ratepayers billions of dollars on their electricity bills. The...
chargedevs.com chargedevs.com

I charge at night. You are welcome.
 
woodgeek said:
A study and article arguing that EV charging is not straining the grid, and load shifting is actually lowering everyone's electricity.

chargedevs.com

Study finds EVs are lowering electricity bills for all customers, not just EV owners - Charged EVs

There’s a lot of speculation about the effects widespread EV adoption will have on the electrical grid, but until now, little hard data. A recent study has found that, so far, EVs are having a salutary effect on the grid, saving ratepayers billions of dollars on their electricity bills. The...
chargedevs.com chargedevs.com

I charge at night. You are welcome.
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But when we get more solar we want to charge during 10am-2pm. Less need for grid storage just use our BEVs
 
I’ll feel better when we no longer blow neighborhood transformers the first few warm days of the year when everyone fires up their air conditioning.
 
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EatenByLimestone said:
I’ll feel better when we no longer blow neighborhood transformers the first few warm days of the year when everyone fires up their air conditioning.
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Load scales with temperature. First hot but not blistering day sounds like neglect preventative maintenance. Which I’m sure the US is behind in.

Meanwhile……..
electrek.co

CATL unveils world's first LFP battery with 4C ultra-fast charging for 370-mi in 10 mins

A new EV battery that can add 370 miles (600 km) range in 10 minutes? China’s CATL introduced its new...
electrek.co electrek.co

Tesla realizes 4680 is not going to reach the success of new LFP batteries.
 
I don’t doubt neglect has happened, lol. I bet most maintenance is done when something breaks.
 
EbS-P said:
Load scales with temperature. First hot but not blistering day sounds like neglect preventative maintenance. Which I’m sure the US is behind in.

Meanwhile……..
electrek.co

CATL unveils world's first LFP battery with 4C ultra-fast charging for 370-mi in 10 mins

A new EV battery that can add 370 miles (600 km) range in 10 minutes? China’s CATL introduced its new...
electrek.co electrek.co

Tesla realizes 4680 is not going to reach the success of new LFP batteries.
Click to expand...
TEsla is already making the previous breakthrough Shenxing SuperFast LFP in Nevada, under license. This announcement is v2 of that product. The 4680 cells will still be good for higher performance vehicles.
 
woodgeek said:
TEsla is already making the previous breakthrough Shenxing SuperFast LFP in Nevada, under license. This announcement is v2 of that product. The 4680 cells will still be good for higher performance vehicles.
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But as far as I know the plaid is using 18650 cells. Wind if they will ever switch cells for those products. With the 4680 in the Cyber truck.
 
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begreen said:
Ford is finally noticing that customers want smaller EVs instead of bloated, expensive big cars.
jalopnik.com

Automakers Keep Killing Off Small Cars Despite Eventually Regretting It

Ford is realizing that betting on heavy, expensive SUVs, trucks and EVs might not have been a good idea.
jalopnik.com jalopnik.com
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Yeah... they were looking at what Tesla was selling, and said 'Hey, they make money at the high end, their Model X is very popular and expensive, let's do THAT.'

They were looking at Tesla, who was making batteries, and said 'Hey, they make a profit, and make their own batteries, let's do THAT.'

Meanwhile Tesla was moving to smaller vehicles AND to licensing a lot of battery tech and buying batteries AND to chasing costs down the learning curve 10% per year.

And Ford and GM release large vehicles with their own batteries about 2-3 years after that was a good idea.

They always say incumbents can keep up with the rate of innovation in a new business, nor can they make decisions or plan/build production to stay competitive. I think that pretty much checks out.

The legacy companies would do well to engineer simple (and likely smaller) vehicles, with the goal of getting them to market quickly and in decent scale, and buy batteries from CATL or license the tech. And forget all the 'moonshots' that take 5 years to get off the ground (and miss the Moon, and 'Tesla killers' that by the time they are out are competing with a market that Tesla has wound down.
 
woodgeek said:
Yeah... they were looking at what Tesla was selling, and said 'Hey, they make money at the high end, their Model X is very popular and expensive, let's do THAT.'

They were looking at Tesla, who was making batteries, and said 'Hey, they make a profit, and make their own batteries, let's do THAT.'

Meanwhile Tesla was moving to smaller vehicles AND to licensing a lot of battery tech and buying batteries AND to chasing costs down the learning curve 10% per year.

And Ford and GM release large vehicles with their own batteries about 2-3 years after that was a good idea.

They always say incumbents can keep up with the rate of innovation in a new business, nor can they make decisions or plan/build production to stay competitive. I think that pretty much checks out.

The legacy companies would do well to engineer simple (and likely smaller) vehicles, with the goal of getting them to market quickly and in decent scale, and buy batteries from CATL or license the tech. And forget all the 'moonshots' that take 5 years to get off the ground (and miss the Moon, and 'Tesla killers' that by the time they are out are competing with a market that Tesla has wound down.
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Yeah Tesla said we’re gonna make that small car after all on the 3/Y assembly line (after then did they killed it) and their stock was up 15% in a day. The markets think there is demand and profit is the small BEV.
 
woodgeek said:
They always say incumbents can keep up with the rate of innovation in a new business, nor can they make decisions or plan/build production to stay competitive. I think that pretty much checks out.

The legacy companies would do well to engineer simple (and likely smaller) vehicles, with the goal of getting them to market quickly and in decent scale, and buy batteries from CATL or license the tech. And forget all the 'moonshots' that take 5 years to get off the ground (and miss the Moon, and 'Tesla killers' that by the time they are out are competing with a market that Tesla has wound down.
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While your observations may be correct (I don't know and don't have the expertise of what any company should be doing...), I wonder what qualifies them as an incumbent company *now* rather than any of the last, say 80 years (when they were at least 30-40 years old already, and when innovations surely happened).

You keep bashing anybody but fully EV companies for their commercial decisions - but if you know so much better than these people, I wonder why they have not hired you to lead them.

Sure CEOs and companies make mistakes, and they may very well have in the way you point out (again, I can't say). But the mistakes you point out seem to all be located in "legacy companies" - and to me, having seen many strong advocates for a certain issue suffer from this - this strongly points that an introspection of confirmation bias might be useful.
 
this would help solve range society! He can have all his passengers charge his car! This is how you get out of driving in the carpool!

 
I prefer this one as it includes the hydration and calories needed for attaining range - or maybe I'm missing something....

Screenshot_20240428-134215.png
 
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woodgeek said:
Yeah... they were looking at what Tesla was selling, and said 'Hey, they make money at the high end, their Model X is very popular and expensive, let's do THAT.'

They were looking at Tesla, who was making batteries, and said 'Hey, they make a profit, and make their own batteries, let's do THAT.'

Meanwhile Tesla was moving to smaller vehicles AND to licensing a lot of battery tech and buying batteries AND to chasing costs down the learning curve 10% per year.

And Ford and GM release large vehicles with their own batteries about 2-3 years after that was a good idea.

They always say incumbents can keep up with the rate of innovation in a new business, nor can they make decisions or plan/build production to stay competitive. I think that pretty much checks out.

The legacy companies would do well to engineer simple (and likely smaller) vehicles, with the goal of getting them to market quickly and in decent scale, and buy batteries from CATL or license the tech. And forget all the 'moonshots' that take 5 years to get off the ground (and miss the Moon, and 'Tesla killers' that by the time they are out are competing with a market that Tesla has wound down.
Click to expand...
Yes, the big 3 have taken the wrong approach. They are regularly in catch-up mode and ripe for disruption. Considering that the best entry market for EVs is city and suburban areas, they should be making cars for that market first.
 
I can agree with that. Current batteries are more than adequate for urban driving also.
 
I will argue that the current production and demand don’t necessitate the big 3 to be selling EVs right now. Less than 10% market share not really attracting the conservative business leaders into a quickly evolving market. They have collectively bought themselves time and the hybrid push will buy them more. Why try and compete with Tesla when you don’t need too. Sure someday you will. It’s not tomorrow. Probably not next year. Ford is structured in a way to let their traditional ICE arm slowly fade from existence and not sink the entire new newly formed FordE (or whatever it’s called).

I don’t think there is technology currently in production that Tesla wouldn’t license at this point. The model3Y production process is reproducible. It’s the next iteration that poses uncertainty for competitors in the 5-10 year timeframe. That really where I see the S curve really at its steepest trajectory. Decisions being made now that we are unaware of will determine what happens in 5-10 years. Building battery manufacturing capacity is key no matter what. And we have seen that decision not being second guessed.
 
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